Israeli bombing targets Lebanese towns located in the western sector (Al Jazeera)

Beirut -

Since the targeting of an Israeli march deep into the city of Nabatieh, the day before yesterday, Thursday, for the first time since the July 2006 war, in an attempt to assassinate a Hezbollah leader, Israel has devoted its violation of the rules of engagement to redrawing the security reality on its northern front.

This escalation comes in contradiction in form with the exceptional movement of Western delegates taking place in Beirut, at the security and diplomatic levels, charged with Israeli proposals, ideas and messages that have not yet reached the threshold of serious negotiation to resolve the fate of the southern Lebanon front.

On Beirut Road

There is continued talk of American-French efforts to prevent the expansion of the war into Lebanon, led by Amos Hochstein, the US President’s special envoy for global energy security, between Tel Aviv and Beirut, as well as the French security and diplomatic movement, as a delegation arrived in Beirut two days ago headed by Frederick Mondolini, Director General of Political Affairs at the State Department. , days after the visit of Minister Stephane Sigournet.

In addition to dozens of visits conducted by ministerial and security delegates from these countries, and others such as Spain, Italy, Britain, Germany and Hungary. Even Germany, which classifies Hezbollah, with its political and military wings, as a “terrorist organization,” sent Deputy Director of Intelligence Uli Dial at the end of January to meet with Naim Qassem, Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah.

These visits intersect, according to observers, when discussing proposals such as Hezbollah’s withdrawal to a distance of 8-10 kilometers on the border, as a tool for implementing UN Resolution No. 1701, in exchange for strengthening the presence of the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL forces south of the Litani, and other demands that aim to ensure the return of more. From 100 thousand settlers to the north.

Hockstein, the US President's envoy, heads a group seeking to negotiate between Tel Aviv and Beirut (Reuters)

Movement due to escalation

On the ground, the commander of the northern region of the Israeli army, Uri Gordin, announced on Friday that Israel aims to change the security situation in the north, in order to allow “the safe return of residents,” while Hezbollah continues to escalate its attacks on Israeli sites and barracks in response to Israel’s expansion of the area of ​​fire currently targeting Nabatieh.

Writer and political analyst Daoud Rimal believes that Israel's bombing of a car and a building, deep in the city of Nabatieh, constituted a complete departure from the rules of engagement in place after October 7. The usual escalation in Israel increases, as whenever things turn towards their conclusion in war or towards a truce, they resort to unprecedented madness with bombing operations and targeting civilians, which is what it did in its wars with Lebanon.

Writer and political analyst Wassim Bazzi says that the movement of Western delegates in Beirut “launched after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and throughout the period they had a varied influence, diplomatically and security-wise, but Hochstein had the most important role, as an official envoy from US President Joe Biden, and a mediator between Lebanon and Israel who has dedicated his role since the agreement.” The maritime borders were demarcated more than a year ago.”

About a week ago, Hochstein visited Tel Aviv without returning to Beirut to convey messages as he usually does. He confirms - according to Bazzi - that the movement is still within the framework of ideas and proposals, and is not based on a negotiating paper with serious terms, so “Hochstein did not have anything new.” Transferred to Beirut.

For his part, Sands places the delegates’ movement within the framework of “providing advice to Lebanon” not to be drawn into war with Israel, even if the Netanyahu government continues with its provocations, and links Lebanon’s interest to its full implementation of Resolution No. 1701. Note that this resolution has become out of service in his opinion, “as evidenced by the fact that the Minister of Foreign Affairs British David Cameron, during his recent visit to Beirut, talked about new security arrangements outside of 1701, as if it were a hint to push for a new international resolution between Lebanon and Israel, but its occurrence will remain impossible before the land borders between them are established.”

Negotiating with the party

However, there are those who believe that one of Hezbollah’s most important gains, politically and regionally, in this war, is its luring Western countries, most of which classify it as a “terrorist organization,” into direct negotiations with it, as security delegates meet with Hezbollah leaders, while diplomatic delegates communicate with it through the President of the Council. Representatives and leader of the Amal Movement, Nabih Berri.

Bazzi says that Berri is the first political and diplomatic negotiator for Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. What the delegates want from the party - in his opinion - is “to prepare for the post-Gaza war phase, and to ensure that Israel’s northern front is controlled, according to conditions that Hezbollah rejects and refuses to discuss before the end of the Gaza war.”

For his part, Rimal believes that Hezbollah no longer needs a mediator, with the exception of Berri, which was confirmed by the visit of Uli Diyal, deputy director of German intelligence.

As for the most prominent aspects of the discussions with Hezbollah, according to Rimal, they revolve around the demand for its withdrawal to the north of the Litani Line, intensifying the presence of the Lebanese army at the border by raising its number to 12,000 and then 15,000 members, and eliminating armed manifestations, while giving UNIFIL powers to intervene south. Lebanon.

Rammal says, “These proposals do not mean that they are implementable, because matters depend on a ceasefire in Gaza,” followed by a question: If the truce negotiations in Egypt between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel succeed, will the latter stop launching strikes on Hezbollah?

While the political analyst links the resolution of the military reality to an agreement to demarcate land borders between Lebanon and Israel - according to maps supported by the United Nations - he considers that Hezbollah is still on its answer: “Let the Gaza war stop until the process of occupying Lebanon’s southern front stops, and thus various proposals can be discussed.”

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib (left) receiving his French counterpart Sigournet (Anatolia)

Scenarios

Bazzi believes that the fate of the fronts supporting Gaza is linked to the fate of the negotiations in Egypt, but Israel’s tendency to escalate the war, through the Battle of Rafah, may mean huge obstacles in the negotiations, which will put Gaza and the other fronts facing dangerous scenarios, and “then diplomacy may fail to keep pace with the military and field progress, with Netanyahu's suicidal government.

While Rammal considers that Israel remembered today that there is what is called the “April” understanding, which was issued following the war it launched in April 1996 against Lebanon, in which it committed the most horrific massacres in “Qana” on the day it targeted displaced southerners at the United Nations headquarters. He says, "Israel wants to revive a clause in the April Understanding, which stipulates the protection of civilians in any confrontation that may occur with Lebanon, to ensure the security of its settlers."

But he calls for dealing with Israeli threats seriously, expressing his fear that “if we enter into a long humanitarian truce in Gaza, the military confrontations in southern Lebanon will not stop,” especially since Israel has a list of names on the list of those it intends to assassinate, most of which are between Lebanon and Palestine, and “these operations that It may proceed with it, even if the war stops completely or with a truce, which would be enough to ignite the southern Lebanese front.”

Source: Al Jazeera