The ongoing fighting in Sudan has left thousands dead and wounded and caused a large wave of displacement (Reuters)

A report published by the French newspaper Le Monde stated that after more than 9 months of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti,” there is no possibility of ending the war soon.

Writer Elliott Braschi explained in his report that all humanitarian organizations working in the country are sounding the alarm. While nearly 8 million people have fled combat zones, including one million people to neighboring countries, the conflict in Sudan is now considered the largest population displacement crisis in the world. According to the United Nations.

Half of the population of 44 million people also suffer from serious food insecurity, noting that the conflict has so far left tens of thousands dead and wounded.

Elliott Braschi stated that the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs at the United Nations, Martin Griffiths, recently revealed that the two parties agreed to meet under the auspices of the United Nations to discuss the delivery of humanitarian aid to the country. It is possible that the meeting will be held in Switzerland, but a date has not been set yet, and previous meetings call for extreme caution, as all attempts to bring the two camps together around one table have failed.

The writer added that the last initiative dates back to last January. According to several sources, secret talks took place 3 times in Manama, the capital of Bahrain, between the warring parties.

There is no immediate solution to the conflict

Sudanese researcher Kholoud Khair, from the Confluence Consulting Foundation, was quoted as saying that the Manama talks may be a step forward, but she added that these discussions can only lead to a ceasefire at best, without being able to resolve the conflict in the long term.

The writer said that from the first weeks of the conflict, a negotiating platform was established in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, led by Riyadh and Washington. But successive agreements between the belligerents, temporary truces and humanitarian corridors, were never respected.

After the repeated failure of the Jeddah talks, and then after the failed mediation attempt led by Egypt and Chad with other countries bordering Sudan, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which includes the heads of states of the Horn of Africa, regained the initiative on the Sudanese issue. The regional organization tried, on the one hand, to organize a direct meeting between the two generals, and on the other hand, to involve Sudanese civilian political representatives in the negotiations.

But the IGAD operation eventually ended last January. During an unprecedented tour of the continent, Hemedti was received as head of state in several capitals of the organization's member states, and was then invited to attend the IGAD summit in the city of Entebbe on January 18. General Al-Burhan was supposed to sit there, but he boycotted the meeting and stopped Sudan’s participation in this body.

Diplomatic confrontation

The writer continued that in the face of Hemedti's diplomatic achievement, his opponent, Al-Burhan, is trying to regain the initiative. He was received by President Abdelmadjid Tebboune in Algeria, where the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces is searching for a strong ally within the African Union.

A meeting of the African Union Peace and Security Council is scheduled to be held on the sidelines of the Heads of State Summit on February 15.

For many observers of the conflict, the increase in mediation proposals is delaying the resolution of the conflict. According to a Western military expert, “We are still far from reaching a situation in which the two warring parties are ready to find a negotiated solution. Outside, they are assessing each other and trying to strengthen their network of alliances.” But on the ground, the fighting is not over yet, and they are still convinced that the solution can only be military.”

The writer pointed out that the successive setbacks suffered by the regular army put the Sudanese Armed Forces in a weak position to enter into negotiations. According to the Western military expert, the Rapid Support Forces were more inclined to negotiate. But if they have the advantage militarily, they face a major problem: managing the areas under their control, which often have a hostile population. The more victories he wins, the less popular Hemedti becomes.

Source: Le Monde