On the ballot papers, drawings of an apple, a plane, a calculator: when Pakistani voters went to the polling stations on Thursday February 8, many identified themselves thanks to the numerous symbols, displayed in addition to the names. In this country on the Indian subcontinent affected by a high rate of illiteracy, these symbols remain important tools for voters to identify the party or candidate to whom they wish to cast their vote.
But no cricket bats appeared on the ballots, unlike in 2018: former cricket star and ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan is behind bars, and his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is is banned by the courts from using its emblem. PTI-backed candidates were therefore forced to run as independents, each using a different symbol on election materials.
وفاداری خون میں ہونی چاہئے ✌️#VoteSirfAltafKa pic.twitter.com/cR5kUYLEjH
— Hasan Raza (@OkayRaza) February 8, 2024
The real holder of power in Pakistan did not appear on any ballot paper: the army. Internet users had also nicknamed this 2024 election the “election of generals”, in reference to the all-powerful army of this South Asian country equipped with nuclear weapons. Elections considered the most “rigged” in the history of the country.
Before the vote, opinion was unanimous: whoever formed the government, the army would continue to be the true law-making institution. The newly elected civilian administration would just have to follow the rules of the Pakistani power game and pray for its survival.
Over its 76-year history, Pakistan has developed a system that some experts describe as a "hybrid regime": a mixture of civilian politics and military interference, despite a democratic electoral system. There is a tacit agreement that generals control areas of defense and foreign affairs, leaving domestic socio-economic issues to politicians.
But this hybrid model has been changing gradually over the past few years and Pakistan appears to be sliding into dangerous undemocratic territory. The man who dictates the rules within the army, the powerful chief of staff Asim Munir, has done little to inspire the confidence of his compatriots.
Towards an “undisciplined parliament”?
The army had chosen its candidate: political veteran and also former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). Everything was in place for him to win the election hands down, the popular Imran Khan having been excluded from the race – just like his party – after losing the support of the army during his time in power (2018-2022 ). But nothing is finally decided.
If Nawaz Sharif wins, the country would return to the pre-Imran Khan situation, when Pakistani politics was dominated by the two establishment parties, with the Pakistan Muslim League in power on one side, and the Pakistan Muslim League in power. The other is the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) – led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, son of assassinated Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto – in opposition.
However, this scenario is far from being won, according to the first results. To the great surprise, independent candidates supported by Imran Khan's PTI came out on top nationally, forcing Nawaz Sharif, until then assured of enjoying a clean majority, to announce on Friday that he would form a government coalition.
"We do not have a sufficient majority to form a government without the support of other parties and we invite our allies to join the coalition so that we can make joint efforts to get Pakistan out of its problems," he said. -he declares.
Nawaz Sharif, center, addresses supporters in Lahore, Pakistan, February 9, 2024. © KM Chaudary, AP
Under Pakistan's electoral rules, independent elected officials can join any group present in the National Assembly, which has 336 seats. A volatile position that the pro-Imran Khan could keep for many years, orphans of their leader. The former cricketer remains incarcerated and prosecuted in more than 200 cases, with charges ranging from corruption to disclosure of classified documents. Experts predict he will remain behind bars for a long time.
The results of Thursday's vote point to a turbulent political period, warns Ayesha Siddiqa, lecturer at King's College London and author of "Military Inc. Inside Pakistan's Military Economy". “If there are a lot of independents in Parliament, it will be undisciplined. Everyone will be at each other’s throats,” she analyzes.
Imran Khan has become the bane of the army
In the 2018 elections, Imran Khan was widely seen as the army's candidate. A man “handpicked, prepared and installed” by the generals, writes Mohammad Taqi in the Indian media The Wire. But that was until Imran Khan fell out with the military once he became the head of the government.
At the head of the army, Asim Munir was quickly replaced by a loyalist of the new Prime Minister, souring relations between the two men. After the ouster of Imran Khan in April 2022, the general was able to return to his post in November. And the wave of legal accusations against the former cricket star turned into a tsunami.
A poster of imprisoned former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan at his party office in Islamabad, Pakistan, February 9, 2024. © Anjum Naveed, AP
On February 3, just five days before the elections, a Pakistani court sentenced Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi to seven years in prison in a case related to their marriage: it was declared "not in conformity with Islam." A verdict widely criticized by legal experts, described as "shameful" and a "damning task" for the Pakistani judicial system.
Imran Khan may be behind bars, but he remains a political force. The former cricketer and politician maintains that the myriad accusations against him are a political cabal. Most Pakistanis, including his opponents, share this opinion.
With a weak judiciary, permeable to executive objectives and highly corrupt, Pakistan was ranked 130th out of 142 countries by the World Justice Project in its Global Rule of Law Index - behind even countries considered autocratic like the Belarus (104th) or China (97th).
Nawaz Sharif returns as military darling
The story of the fall of Imran Khan is not new in Pakistan: the now number one candidate for the post of Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, already experienced it in 2017. Ousted from his post as Prime Minister when he attempted to establish civilian control of the army, he was the subject of a series of corruption accusations. Mr Sharif then went into exile abroad to avoid serving his sentence, as Imran Khan took his place as the generals' favorite.
Once Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022, the country plunged into political turmoil. Throughout 2023, supporters of Imran Khan stormed residences and army bases in protests filled with discontent towards him. Nawaz Sharif then regained the favor of the generals.
After four years in exile, Mr. Sharif returned to Pakistan in October 2023. A few weeks after his return, his convictions were overturned, paving the way for him to a fourth term at the head of the country.
A businessman and former chief minister of Punjab, Pakistan's most populous and prosperous state, Mr. Sharif boasts a track record of economic growth and development. As prime minister, the billionaire also sought closer trade ties with India, Pakistan's giant neighbor and archenemy.
Mr. Sharif's return to Pakistan was widely seen as a sign that the military was seeking a safe pair of hands to manage the economic crisis crippling the country.
Because Pakistan is facing its worst economic crisis since its independence 76 years ago. Inflation is around 30%, which has led to the free fall of the rupee, the national currency. Last year, the underdeveloped South Asian country narrowly escaped a debt default when the IMF approved a $3 billion bailout plan at the last minute.
The authorities created the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) to coordinate economic and fiscal policies, strengthen the confidence of international investors and support democratic governance.
But since then, instead of transferring responsibility for managing the crisis, the military have increasingly encroached on the economic terrain: as co-presidency of the new SIFC, they have appointed no one other than... the head of the army himself, General Asim Munir. A choice that raised eyebrows in tax circles.
See alsoImran Khan, former Prime Minister of Pakistan: “I don’t feel safe”
A result suits the generals or facilitates their fall?
Same story on the political side: the army did not go with the back of the spoon during the 2024 elections, even by Pakistani standards. Increased prosecutions of Imran Khan, ban on his supporters from running under the banner of his party, the PTI… the tactic seems to have failed: voters overcame the obstacles to elect candidates supported by the PTI.
But analysts warn of a new period of turbulence. “Assuming that most of the independent candidates are from the PTI, if the PML-N [of Nawaz Sharif] is to form a government, it will have to be a coalition,” analyzes Ayesha Siddiqa. “The weaker the coalition, the stronger the army.”
The military's interference in politics has long angered rule-of-law advocates - accused of being "dangerous buffoons" by one of the country's top human rights lawyers, late Asma Jehangir.
Fifteen years after this tirade, the army remains "a strong pole", but "just like the political parties", nuance Ayesha Siddiqa. "With this election, political parties are in play again. It's all about how they behave now."
In the past, Pakistani political parties have forged alliances with the military in an effort to oust their rivals from power. Their lack of unity has so far allowed the generals to maintain their more or less gray looming position in the polls.
After the vote on Thursday, February 8, social media was flooded with messages from Pakistanis calling for dialogue and national unity. If their appeals are ignored, it will not be the first time in Pakistan's troubled history.
This article was adapted from the English original by Henrique Valadares.
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