Global warming: is the objective of +1.5°C set by the Paris agreement still tenable?

Yanis Darras with AFP 9:00 a.m., February 10, 2024

New heat records in Spain and the south of France... The month of January 2024 will be remembered for its exceptional mildness and becomes the hottest January ever recorded since measurements began. A sad record in line with the year 2023, which takes first place for the hottest year ever recorded on Earth. Worse, for the first time, the global average temperature recorded over a period of 12 months has crossed the +1.5°C mark. 

In detail, over the period between February 2023 and January 2024, the average temperature of the earth's surface was 1.52°C higher than the period 1850-1900, according to data from the European Copernicus Observatory. But then, does this mean that the objective of limiting global warming to +1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures is unattainable? 

The bar of the Paris agreement not yet crossed

Asked about the question, Richard Betts, director of studies on climate impacts at the British National Meteorological Office, wants to be reassuring and believes that the flagship measure of the Paris agreement signed in 2015 is still relevant. “Nevertheless, it is yet another reminder of the profound changes we have already made to our global climate and to which we must now adapt,” he added.

“The limit of +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era in the Paris agreements must be understood in the climatic sense of the term. That is to say, these are temperatures averaged over 10 years , 20 years, 30 years", underlines to Europe 1, Françoise Vimeux, climatologist at the Research Institute for Development. “But this is not the case at all.”

Quickly reverse the curve of greenhouse gas emissions

But the climatologist emphasizes that the objective of the agreement signed in 2015 will be exceeded according to projections based on the countries' commitments "at the start of the 2030-2040 decade. The excess will be recorded when, two years out of three, the average temperature of the year considered will exceed +1.5 degrees". Scientists are now quickly calling for a reduction in the curve of greenhouse gas emissions around the world. "On paper, the objective of +1.5°C is still achievable. We know what we need to do (to get there, editor's note). We must reduce our greenhouse gas emissions compared to 2019, 43% in 2030, 69% in 2040 and 84% in 2050. Clearly, we must aim for carbon neutrality by the middle of the century, at a global level.