Analysis
Poland: after their defeat at the polls, the PiS conservatives are playing the blockade card
The last legislative elections in October 2023 were experienced by many voters as a new lease of life after eight years of democratic chaos. The liberal coalition took the place of the ultranationalists and conservatives of the Law and Justice party, PiS. But getting Poland back on track with the rule of law seems more complicated than expected. And the twists and turns multiply.
President Andrzej Duda (l.), close to the PiS, and Donald Tusk (r.), new Prime Minister, during a meeting in Warsaw on October 24, 2023. AFP - JANEK SKARZYNSKI
By: Martin Chabal Follow
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Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, is already ready to call early elections, just four months after his appointment. Because the leader of the new government is getting impatient and even starting to get annoyed: “
If we cannot govern, because President Duda is obstructing and he wants early elections, he will have them.
»The government is slipping. The Prime Minister in office since December gave himself the mission of “
cleaning out the Augean stables left by the previous government
”
during his general policy speech
. But he is behind schedule in the work.
For Maciej Onasz, political scientist at the University of Łódź, “
Tusk and the entire coalition are in a very complicated position
.” The stables are still well guarded by the former owners, “
the PiS, after eight years of reign, has firmly integrated changes contrary to the rule of law
,” continues Maciek Onasz. And to go back, everything becomes complicated, in particular because of the Polish constitutional court.
Incessant blockages
While Donald Tusk is currently trying to pass the government budget, President Andrzej Duda, a great ally of the PiS, has referred the bill to the constitutional court. A judicial body under the influence of the Law and Justice party since its coming to power, according to many observers.
A situation which complicates everything according to Maciej Onasz: “
In practice, he has the possibility of blocking any change brought about by the legislation.
» A major obstacle for the coalition in government which cannot get around it, in particular “
because there is no body in the Polish system capable of contesting the judgments of the constitutional court
”, explains the political scientist.
Like the budget, all projects that aim to reverse PiS decisions are torpedoed by the President of the Republic - either by referring them to the constitutional court or by vetoing them. A veto that Parliament is unable to overturn, given its composition - 3/5ths of elected officials are needed to overturn a presidential veto.
The end justifies the means ?
So, how to do ? Time is running out, “
the coalition must satisfy the demands of voters and show that a change of power leads to a change of system
”, analyzes Maciej Onasz. So much so that the new government is attempting coups. Often surprising, like at the beginning of January. The police intervened in the Presidential Palace to arrest a PiS deputy, Mariusz Kamiński. The former Minister of the Interior and one of his closest collaborators are allegedly involved in a corruption affair. After a very short stint in prison,
the President of the Republic pardoned them
.
The government also attacked the public news channel TVP, accused of disseminating PiS ideas since its time in power. On December 20 at 7:30 p.m., no news as planned, but a message instead: "
No Polish citizen is forced to listen to propaganda
[...]
From tomorrow, instead of soup propagandist, we want to offer pure water
.” At the same time, the Minister of Culture laid off those responsible for the channel. PiS complains that these hit operations are “
destroying democracy in Poland.
»
For Maciej Onasz, “
the coalition is trying the fait accompli method
”. She acts quickly, without asking too many questions. But the expert asks the question: “
is this method, in itself, consistent with the principles of a democratic rule of law? We can doubt it.
»
A vague strategy
PiS continues to block everything that comes from the new majority. At the same time, “
the leaders of Law and Justice are trying to impose a narrative on the end of democracy in Poland
,” observes the professor at the University of Łódź. In his current position, he cries “
violations of the law, using authoritarian, even totalitarian methods, with attempts to create
“political prisoners””. The climate is deleterious and reminiscent of what the current government criticized the PiS during its second mandate in 2015. “
A strategy that was already ineffective at that time
,” continues Maciej Onasz.
In my opinion, they still can't recover from the October defeat.
»
Playing for time before the regional and municipal elections in April is one of the goals of PiS. Polish conservatives hope to show the ruling coalition that they are still popular and that their blockages are legitimate. But there is no indication that this will be the case, according to Maciej Onasz: “
They stand to lose a lot. Since 2018, they have governed half of the voivodeships
[regions, Editor's note]
, if they keep three out of the 16 in total, it will already be a success.
»
Large cities should also escape them, as in every election. The October elections also marked a new trend: if the PiS is traditionally stronger in the countryside than in the big cities, there too we are witnessing an exodus of voters. So much so that “
in the near future, the PiS could have the mission of surviving and limiting losses
,” predicts Maciej Onasz.
The Law and Justice party could already have the next presidential election in 2025 in mind. “
They will be crucial. Retaining the position of President of the Republic will be extremely important for PiS.
» And not only to retain the right of veto and continue to block the ruling coalition, but also for its judicial prerogatives. “
If the Law and Justice party succeeds, it will be a good starting point for the legislative elections of 2027
,” Maciej Onasz is already planning.
Also listenPoland: PiS puts up resistance
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