Supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, currently imprisoned, are still leading the elections in Pakistan on Friday evening, February 9, as the end of the count approaches, but with a limited lead over the two major dominant parties. traditionally the political scene.

Even if these results are confirmed, this does not mean that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of Imran Khan, which has exceeded expectations, will be able to form a government.

Since none of the three blocs can any longer obtain an absolute majority, the winner will have to form alliances. All options therefore remain open regarding the composition of this coalition. Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), which was the favorite in the election, remains best placed to achieve this.

“We do not have the majority to lead the government alone, so we invite other parties and winning candidates to work with us,” said Nawaz Sharif, who has already served three terms as prime minister. The 74-year-old former statesman, who returned to Pakistan in October after four years in exile in London, would have the support of the army, according to observers.

Imran Khan's party was not allowed to appear on the ballot, forcing its candidates to compete as independents. Despite everything, the latest preliminary official results give 92 seats to independents - the vast majority linked to Imran Khan's party, the PTI - for the legislative election, against 63 for the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N).

The Pakistan People's Party (PPP), of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, representing the country's other political dynasty, also did better than expected with 50 seats, according to the Election Commission.

These announced results relate to 225 of the 266 constituencies at stake. The slowness of the counting only added to suspicions of manipulation against the PTI.

“They changed our results”

PTI-backed candidates mainly won seats in the country's northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, its stronghold, where two PTI supporters were killed and 24 injured in riots on Friday evening. These are the first post-election violence reported since Thursday's election. “Two demonstrators were hit by stones and lost their lives” in the Shangla district, local police official Sahibzada Sajjad Ahmed told AFP.

Demonstrations also took place in Peshawar, the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and in Quetta in Balochistan, in the southwest of the country.

For many of Imran Khan's voters, the delay in publishing the results reinforced the belief that victory was being stolen from them.

“Our results were changed (...) The government should recount all the votes,” said Muhammad Saleem, a 28-year-old trader who joined some 2,000 PTI supporters who blocked a major thoroughfare in Peshawar .

The Commission cited "internet problems" to explain the slowness of the process. The authorities' shutdown of mobile telephone and internet services on Thursday had already fueled doubts about the fairness of the elections.

The National Assembly has 336 deputies, but 70 seats are reserved for women and religious minorities and allocated proportionally. As the PTI is not authorized to compete under its own colors, it cannot claim any of these additional seats.

Independents cannot form a government themselves and have 72 hours to decide whether they join a parliamentary group or not, which also works against the PTI. This gives time for other parties to woo PTI-backed independents and push them to join them, a common practice in Pakistan.

Pre-election fraud

“Even if the PTI fails to form a government, the elections show that there is a limit to electoral manipulation,” Bilal Gilani, executive director of the Gallup Pakistan polling institute, told AFP. . “It shows that the army doesn’t always get what it wants.”

The Interior Ministry said Friday that 61 attacks took place on Thursday, the day of the vote. They left 16 dead and 54 injured. The day before, 28 people had died in two bomb attacks claimed by the jihadist group Islamic State, in the province of Baluchistan.

See also Pakistan: polling stations close after an election day marked by attacks

The campaign was marked by accusations of "pre-election fraud", with the sidelining of the popular Imran Khan sentenced to three long prison terms, and repression against his party.

The PML-N and the PPP had formed a coalition government, under the leadership of Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz's brother, after the ouster of Imran Khan from the post of prime minister through a no-confidence motion in April 2022.

The PPP then distanced itself from the PML-N during the campaign and seems to have suffered less from the unpopularity of this government. Its leader, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, 35, son of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto assassinated in 2007, spoke of "very encouraging" results.

The anti-establishment posture of Imran Khan, a former cricket star, explains why his popularity has remained intact, despite a stint in power marked by a deterioration in the economic situation. He directly challenged the army, which ruled the country for decades and was nevertheless suspected of having supported it in 2018. He accused it of having orchestrated his fall in 2022 and attributed his legal troubles to it.

“Concerns” of London and Washington

The United States, which maintains tense relations with Islamabad even though it is a partner, expressed its "concerns" on Friday about the conduct of elections in Pakistan, while saying it wanted to work with the next government.

The United Kingdom on Friday expressed "serious concerns" about the conduct of elections in Pakistan and "urges" the Pakistani authorities to "respect fundamental human rights", in particular regarding access to information.

"We recognize (...) the serious concerns raised about the fairness and lack of inclusiveness of the elections", and "we regret that all parties were not formally authorized to present themselves", affirmed the head of British diplomacy David Cameron, as the vote count draws to a close for this election marred by violence.

We recognize serious concerns over the fairness and lack of inclusiveness of Pakistan's elections.



Authorities must uphold fundamental human rights including free access to information and the rule of law.



I applaud everyone who voted. https://t.co/15U4EcmRjK

— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) February 9, 2024

With AFP

The France 24 summary of the week

invites you to look back at the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you! Download the France 24 application