EH Bildu will win in Álava and Guipúzcoa and would tie at 27 seats with the PNV in the Basque Parliament

Josean Izarra Vitoria

Victoria

Updated Friday, February 9, 2024-11:50

The Basque pre-campaign heats up with a 27-27 tie between the PNV and EH Bildu while Lehendakari Iñigo Urkullu is still jealously guarding the date of the elections. An electoral survey prepared by the Basque Executive predicts the victory of the nationalist coalition in Guipúzcoa and Álava, which ensures a growth of 6 seats in the Basque Parliament compared to those obtained in 2020. Ortuzar's nationalists would lose 4 seats although they would still retain the absolute majority if they reach an agreement again with the Basque PSOE, which experiences a slight improvement from 10 to 11 parliamentarians.

EH Bildu maintains the electoral momentum that it already exhibited in the 2023 local and general elections and has been gaining ground on the PNV since last November. The Urkullu Government has made public its latest electoral survey that incorporates significant differences with respect to the same study carried out last November when a large part of the Basques thought that the Lehendakari would repeat as the PNV candidate. In the survey reported today, the tie between the parties of Ortuzar and Otegi reflects the solidity of the PNV in Vizcaya while EH Bildu remains firm in Guipúzcoa and grows in Álava where for the first time it surpasses by one seat (8) those it would obtain his nationalist rival (7).

An electoral growth in Álava that occurs simultaneously with the decision of EH Bildu to place its candidate Pello Otxandiano as number one for this Historical Territory in which 25 parliamentarians are elected - as in Vizcaya and Guipúzcoa - with a minor population.

In the pre-election survey carried out by the Basque Government in November, the PNV maintained an advantage of 29 parliamentarians compared to EH Bildu's 25. Furthermore, it was Ortuzar's nationalists who obtained 8 seats in Álava compared to EH Bildu's 7. The field work of the pre-election survey was carried out in the week before the PNV announced the replacement of Urkullu by the Biscayan provincial deputy Imanol Pradales as candidate for lehendakari.

The survey published today by the Basque Executive predicts a slight increase (from 10 to 11 parliamentarians) of the Basque PSOE with Eneko Andueza as candidate for lehendakari. Javier de Andrés' PP would maintain the 6 seats that was considered a bad result in 2020 and confirms that the confrontation between Sumar and Podemos will penalize both. In 2020, the Elkarrekin Podemos coalition achieved 6 representatives and now it is predicted that Podemos will have 2 parliamentarians and 1 Sumar. Vox would also achieve a seat in the Basque Chamber by maintaining the one that Amaia Martínez obtained 4 years ago for Álava.