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BSW boss Sahra Wagenknecht: Chance of entering the Bundestag

Photo: Filip Singer / EPA

The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) could make it into the Bundestag straight away. In current surveys, the party has an average of around five percent, as a SPIEGEL analysis of the so-called Sunday question shows.

Eight opinion research institutes now report their own values ​​for the BSW and therefore no longer classify the party under “other”. The range ranges from three percent, as calculated by Verian (formerly Kantar), to eight percent at the Ipsos Institute.

Individual surveys are always subject to uncertainty, which is why SPIEGEL continually calculates the average of all surveys conducted by major German institutes. The more recent a survey is, the greater its average weight. There is no evaluation by the survey institutes.

If there were a federal election soon, parliament would probably change significantly compared to 2021. According to the surveys, the strongest faction is currently the Union with 31 percent, ahead of the AfD with 19 percent. The SPD lost more percentage points than any other party and came to 15 percent, the Greens to 14 percent. BSW and FDP are at the five percent threshold, the Left and the Free Voters are unlikely to make it into the Bundestag at the moment. Whether the small parties are represented in the Bundestag could ultimately have a major impact on possible coalitions.

Basically, it is relatively difficult for pollsters to evaluate new parties because there is a lack of information about the electorate from previous elections and voter surveys. At BSW, the party also wants to represent positions from the entire political spectrum. The European elections this summer and the state elections in several eastern German states in the fall should provide clues as to which voters the party is appealing to.

The institutes also deal with small parties differently. Some, for example, suggest the BSW in their preselection of possible parties, while at other institutes the respondents have to name the party themselves. This can also influence the results.

Sep