We hear his voice more and more. Libya's Crown Prince Mohammed Reda Senoussi is paving the way to play a major political role in his country's future.
For several months and more closely since mid-January, the monarch has increased diplomatic meetings abroad with members of different tribes and Libyan dignitaries. Appointments from which he does not hide, and which he displays on the social network X.
في مشاورات واللقاءات التي نجريها في سع ينا نحو انجاح المساعي نحو حوار وطني شامل تحت مظلة الشرعية الدستورية ملكية ، التقيت بكل الترحاب وفداً مُقدراً من النخب والفاعليات الاجت ماعية من مختلف القبائل المحترمة من المنط قة الغربية… pic.twitter. com/8zdlkghUzc
— Mohammed El-Senoussi (@CPofLibya) February 1, 2024
This emir, exiled in London since childhood, is none other than the grandson of Idris I, who reigned between 1951 and 1969 over the country, before being overthrown that year by Colonel Gaddafi.
In his declarations, the heir to the Libyan throne poses as a peacemaker, seeking to reestablish a national dialogue "which will save our country from the scourge of wars, discord and division." “Our common goal is to save our country and work to build a state based on institutions and the law,” he wrote on X.
While the monarchy was abolished more than half a century ago, part of the political class hopes for the prince's return to the country's affairs. A plebiscite which takes place against a backdrop of political impasse. Libya still lives torn between two rival authorities vying for power, with, on one side, the government of Tripoli recognized by the UN, and on the other, the east of the country, under the control of the forces of Marshal Haftar.
Rumors about his upcoming visit to Libya at the invitation of the Prime Minister of the Tripoli authority, Abdelhamid Dbeibah, have been denied by the royal family, who claimed that the politician and his entourage "are seeking to exploit the progress made by His Royal Highness as part of the ongoing national dialogue.
“Symbolism, popularity and historical heritage are not enough”
Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya specialist and associate researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, has already met the crown prince, who lives in the British capital. "He is an intelligent man, very accessible, who has an awareness of his country. He is quite grounded in reality for someone who has been in exile for decades. He would like – that's what he says in in any case – contribute positively to the 2024 version of your country."
But a political return from the monarch leaves this expert skeptical: “Symbolism, popularity and historical heritage are not enough.” Jalel Harchaoui warns of the political use of a sovereign who could be used as a “gadget”.
According to him, it is illusory to imagine that the emir could remain a "neutral" figure symbolizing the unity of the country, without attachment to any local militia. “He has political capital that he will immediately consume as soon as he sets foot in Libya where he will have to request the physical protection of a faction.”
All factions hope for his return "because everyone wants to exploit him", continues the researcher, who affirms that the Libyan armed groups "have been contacting him for years".
A role to play in restoring a Constitution to Libya
But for Jalel Harchaoui, the emir could have a more interesting role to play if he puts his return in the balance with the Libyan political class to push them to move forward on the adoption of a new Constitution.
Indeed, without a Constitution since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya is in an impasse. "The country was supposed to sign a constitutive declaration in 2011, a temporary document which was supposed to be replaced by a real permanent Constitution. But this never happened due to the incompetence [of the Libyan leaders, Editor's note], but also to cause of the continuation of the fighting", explains the researcher.
Also read: The rise of Saddam Haftar raises fears of “corruption, death and destruction” in eastern Libya
The supporters of Mohammed Reda Senoussi dream of a return to the 1951 Constitution, from the time of Idris I. This text established a unified kingdom composed of three regions each benefiting from a large degree of autonomy and a king responsible for façade unity. An idea supported by Jordan and Qatar, two countries which are themselves monarchies. In Libya, the crown prince also has the favor of the Muslim Brotherhood, close to Doha.
“The main concern of Libyans remains knowing what they are going to eat, if they are going to have electricity or even if their salary is going to be paid to them,” estimates Jalel Harchaoui, recalling that 60% of the population of the country is less than 30 years old and has never known Libya during the monarchy.
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