Electoral destabilization: how the non-systemic opposition plans to influence the Russian presidential elections

According to RT sources in law enforcement agencies, foreign patrons of the liberal non-systemic opposition proposed placing the main emphasis on creating a negative agenda in social networks and affiliated media in the run-up to the presidential elections. The emphasis will be on local protest actions by activists, as well as attempts to stir up the theme of the mobilized and, in general, on the active promotion of so-called anti-war sentiments with an emphasis on youth and the female part of the electorate.

Within the framework of this topic, as observers noted in conversations with RT, media “headliners” of the opposition have already become more active, in particular Maxim Kats*, as well as the network of Telegram channels of Mikhail Khodorkovsky*.

In a different vein, a group of activists affiliated with FBK** and Alexei Navalny*** operates, which is in a protracted conflict with other centers of power of the non-systemic opposition. Navalny suggested that supporters arrive at polling stations by noon on election day. According to the organizer’s idea, this should demonstrate rejection of the policies of President Vladimir Putin and show the massive scale of the protest audience within the country.

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Navalny’s original plan, however, cannot be called promising from an electoral point of view - RT sources doubt the effectiveness of the action given the likely absence on the ballot of a candidate “convenient” for the non-systemic opposition, to whom “smart voting” technologies could be applied (that is, to vote for any second most popular candidate after the government representative. - 

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). 

Oppositionists who left the country practice a different kind of political activism. Thus, according to RT’s interlocutors in Russian law enforcement agencies, one of Navalny’s associates, Vladimir Milov*, planned a visit to a number of capitals of European Union countries, as well as a visit to the United States. Milov has connections among the European and American political establishments, members of the European Parliament and the US Congress, as well as among the expert community. 

According to sources, Milov is directly engaged in lobbying for the introduction of new sanctions packages against the closest circle, friends and associates of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Using old connections in Russian government circles (in the early 2000s, Milov was Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation - 

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), he has sensitive information in a variety of economic spheres. All this helps Milov more accurately “tune” the new EU and US sanctions packages.

According to other information from RT sources, other well-known associates of Navalny - Maria Pevchikh *, Leonid Volkov * and their subordinates in the FBK - curators from the US State Department at recent meetings in Lithuania were given the task of organizing a campaign to recognize the presidential elections in Russia as illegitimate. The instructions received by the FBK activists were put into action and have already begun to be implemented through the media network of the non-systemic opposition and the formation of new news channels and projects (one of the first was the project “Noon against Putin”).

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Maximum advancement

Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Information Technologies and Communications Oleg Matveychev calls what is happening an “intraspecific struggle.” 

“The opposition, of course, cannot miss the presidential elections: this is an event when they need to promote their destructive agenda as much as possible. There is only one sponsor of this activity - the Anglo-Saxons. And their clients from among the Navalists are trying to push through their projects. This is an intraspecific struggle,” the deputy emphasizes in a conversation with RT.

The expert doubts the ability of the foreign opposition to create real problems during the presidential elections or somehow interfere with their holding due to the lack of popular support and discredit by cooperation with foreign centers of influence.

Lawyer Ilya Remeslo, in a conversation with RT, confirms the deepening split in the opposition camp, also citing the fight for grants and budgets from foreign patrons as the main reason.

“They are always trying to find something that, in their opinion, will “bring down” the government. The action “Noon against Putin” is from the same series. When there are no significant assets or supporters left, they attract at least someone with such a funny idea. The effectiveness will be the same as with the “Shine a Flashlight” campaign, when all those who disagreed were asked to go out onto the balcony at a certain hour of the night and shine a flashlight,” the social activist believes.

Craft believes that the main leitmotif of the conflict in the opposition environment is budgets and attempts to somehow justify future failures through the formation of a media picture.

“The opposition cannot admit that it does not participate in the elections in any way and cannot influence the final result in any way. This is dangerous, since the next step of the curators is to write them off from all accounts. That’s why they come up with such senseless actions,” the lawyer believes.

An expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, Vladimir Bruter, in a conversation with RT, noted that foreign curators of the non-systemic opposition will build their “own usefulness rating”, focusing on how their charges will behave during the pre-election period.

“Realizing the futility and lack of real support, foreign curators of the opposition are now assessing who they will finance in the post-election period. This is precisely why such fierce squabbling around various projects is connected. It is important for the opposition to gain a foothold in some kind of status for the future,” says the political scientist.

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Political tricks

Oleg Matveychev, speaking about the tactics of the non-systemic opposition, especially noted one of them - attempts to pass off certain Russian politicians as “our own”, trying to obtain registration as candidates for the presidential elections. A striking example of this, according to Matveychev, is presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin.

“Now they are trying to use Nadezhdin, claiming some kind of phenomenal support for him, that the Kremlin is supposedly afraid of him. In fact, Nadezhdin was unable to collect any signatures, and perhaps he did not even try. And accordingly, through the media “highlighting” the problems with his signatures, they are trying to delegitimize the elections,” says the deputy.

Ilya Remeslo believes that even in the case of Nadezhdin, the non-systemic opposition demonstrates a “lack of subjectivity.”

“They have no options other than to parasitize Nadezhdin, since they do not have their own well-promoted politicians inside Russia. The activity around Nadezhdin is an attempt to somehow repeat the “smart voting” scenario. Usually Navalnists called for voting for a communist, but now such a call will not find a response at all among a liberal-minded audience,” the lawyer notes.

Foreign areas

According to Matveychev, one of the few “working resources” remaining at the disposal of the non-systemic opposition may be relocants, since voting stations abroad can be picketed with impunity.

“Provocations at foreign polling stations are one of their tools. It is possible to predict the organization of various “shows” during voting. Fake stories about ballot stuffing will be circulated, all this will be accompanied by comments for foreign media and then spread on social networks. This is their mandatory program,” the expert concluded.

*Recognized as foreign agents by decision of the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation.

** The Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) is included in the register of NPOs performing the functions of a foreign agent, by decision of the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation dated October 9, 2019. The organization is recognized as extremist, its activities are prohibited by decision of the Moscow City Court dated June 9, 2021.

*** Alexey Anatolyevich Navalny is included in the register of individuals involved in terrorism and extremism.