Leaders of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan while speaking to their supporters in the Punjab province (French)

Despite the many speculations about the integrity of the Pakistani elections scheduled for next Tuesday, the lack of electoral activities, and the security challenges, it seems that the caretaker government led by Anwarul Haq Kakar is determined to hold the elections on time.

22 religious parties participate in these elections, with varying chances of reaching the national parliament, regional councils, and participating in the central government.

At the outset, it should be noted that in light of the forced curtailment of the role of the Tehreek-e-Insaf Party and the imprisonment of its leader, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the main competition is between the Muslim League Party, led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the People’s Party, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, son of the late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and the former President. Asif Ali Zardari.

In addition to these two parties, other parties with regional roots participate in the elections, such as the “National Muhajir Movement” in the Sindh Province, and the National People’s Party, which has a Pashtun nationalist character in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.

As for the religious political parties participating in the electoral arena, the most prominent are:

The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Party, led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the Jamaat-e-Islami led by Sirajul Haq, the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan led by Saad Hussain Rizvi, and the Shiite Muslim Unity Council Party led by Nasir Abbas Jafari.

A rally of People's Party supporters in Karachi (French)

Political milestones... from the founding to today

Since the founding of Pakistan in 1947, religious-oriented political parties have not obtained the electoral results that would enable them to form a government, neither at the national nor at the regional level.

Perhaps the only exception was in the 2002 elections, when 6 of those parties ran in the elections under the umbrella of the “Working Council Alliance”, which won 45 seats in the National Council, and was able to form the regional government in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly North-West Frontier Province) and Balochistan.

Observers attribute the success of religiously oriented political parties in the 2002 elections to reasons including Pakistani voters’ sympathy for them, due to the American war in Afghanistan and the overthrow of the Islamic Emirate’s government led by the Taliban in 2001, with the support of the Pakistani military ruler at the time, General Pervez Musharraf.

These factors then created a state of popular sympathy with the religious parties, which raised a slogan against the American war in Afghanistan and opposed the policies of Pervez Musharraf's government.

Since the general elections in 2013, the electoral results in Pakistan have witnessed a decline in the number of votes received by religious political parties.

In the 2018 elections, 12 religious parties received only 5.2 million votes out of a total of 54.2 million votes.

On that day, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party won 12 seats in the central parliament, and the “Labbaik Pakistan” movement, which is accused of being close to the Pakistani military establishment, received 2.2 million votes, but it was unable to reach the National Council or the regional parliament in the Punjab province, which is considered its main stronghold. It won only 3 seats in the provincial parliament of Sindh province.

Voices disperse and priorities change

Observers expect that political parties with a religious nature will not receive a high percentage of votes in the upcoming elections, which means that they will not be able to push many of their members into parliament and regional councils, for reasons:

  • The possibility of the votes of these parties being dispersed, because each of them will run in the upcoming elections independently, and is not united by a political umbrella or electoral alliance, which reduces the chances of its candidates winning over the candidates of other parties.

  • The withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan would make the religious parties in Pakistan lose the card to mobilize the religious segment that rejects American hegemony in the region.

  • Pakistani voters focus on economic and security issues, such as getting the country out of the crisis economic situation, confronting inflation, unemployment and increasing security challenges.

Religious parties in Pakistan mobilize their supporters for the February 8 elections (French)

The most fortunate and the least fortunate:

  • Perhaps the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Party - Fazlur Rahman’s wing has a better chance of obtaining a number of seats in the central parliament and parliamentary assemblies in the provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, according to researcher Abdul Basit Muhammad, a member of the International Center for Research on Political Violence.

In an article published on the “The Diplomat” website, Abdul Basit expects the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Party to obtain between 8 and 10 seats in the Pashtun-majority Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provincial Council, and the Pashtun-majority areas in Balochistan province.

 What enhances the chances of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party to obtain a number of seats in the upcoming elections is the possibility that it will be able to exploit “the systematic weakening of the PTI party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province,” in addition to Sheikh Fazlur Rahman’s relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Taliban in Pakistan.

Approaching the army

There is also speculation that Sheikh Fazlur Rahman, during his recent visit to Afghanistan and after his meeting with the leader of the Afghan Taliban in Kandahar, mediated with the Pakistani Taliban for an undeclared ceasefire with the Pakistani government, and he succeeded in doing so.

There is no doubt that this step brings Sheikh Fazlur Rahman closer to the military establishment in Pakistan, and strengthens the chances of his party participating in the next government, especially if Nawaz Sharif is able to reach the prime ministership.

This is what Muhammad Aamir Rana goes to in an article in the famous “Dan” newspaper published from Karachi, where he says, “If speculation is correct about the success of Sheikh Fazlur Rahman’s efforts to reach a temporary ceasefire by the Pakistani Taliban, the Jamiat al-Ulama Party will "He will demand an important share in the next government."

  •  The Islamic Group, which was founded by the well-known thinker and political leader Abu al-Ala Maududi in 1941, there are no strong indicators indicating significant progress in its electoral path, although there is a possibility that some of its candidates will reach the National Council and the two regional councils in both Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

This possibility is reinforced by the fact that the Islamic group won 132 seats out of a total of 367 seats in the recent municipal elections in the city of Karachi, which has a population of more than 17 million people.

  • As for the “Labbaik Pakistan” movement, which is active in the Punjab province and the cities of Karachi and Hyderabad in the Sindh province, it is likely to play a role in dividing the votes if it is unable to obtain seats in Parliament, according to writer Aamir Khan.

This dispersion reduces the chances of victory for the candidates of the Muslim League-Nawaz Sharif Party in Punjab and the National Muhajir Movement Party in the cities of Karachi and Hyderabad in the Sindh province, due to the presence of supporters of the Pakistan Libbaik Movement among the Barelvi sect with Sufi tendencies.

Whatever the results of the elections, voter trends will be an indicator of the political performance of religious political parties in Pakistan and a test of their popularity.

Source: Al Jazeera