Azerbaijan's election forecasts seem settled in favor of current President Ilham Aliyev (Al Jazeera)

Baku -

Azerbaijan entered a state of electoral silence today (February 6), on the eve of the start of the early presidential elections in the country scheduled for tomorrow, amid a consensus that current President Ilham Aliyev will win a new term, and even with a large margin separating him from the rest of the six candidates, according to local and foreign observers.

These elections are taking place amidst the highest level of popularity for Aliyev, who has been in power in Azerbaijan since 2003, and on the other hand, a boycott from the opposition parties, which say that the results are predetermined.

For the first time in the country's history, elections will be held throughout Azerbaijan, including in the Karabakh region, and this is its main advantage.

According to the Constitution of Azerbaijan, the candidate who obtains half of the votes of participating voters is considered the winner. In the last elections, Ilham Aliyev received the support of 86.22% of voters, with a participation rate of 74.5%.

Huge discrepancy

In addition to Aliyev, the Central Election Commission registered 6 other candidates. The most experienced of them is Kudrat Hasan Guliyev, who has participated in all presidential campaigns since 2003, but did not receive more than 3% of the votes. The other prominent candidate is MP Zahid Arouj. Shaal ran for this position twice, receiving just over 3% of the vote in the 2018 elections.

Aliyev's supporters, especially members of the ruling "New Azerbaijan" party, say that they consider the current leader the "eternal president" of the country, and describe him as the "liberator of Karabakh" and the sponsor of development, strengthening the economy, and raising the country's defense capabilities.

In parallel, it was interesting that the authorities did not care about the reactions and statements issued by international organizations and Western diplomats questioning the integrity of the elections (before they took place). Baku did not hesitate to take measures that it said were to protect the political and social space from foreign interference, and announced a ban on all USAID activities. International, before later expelling two French embassy employees from the country, for what it considered interference in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan.

The most important election candidates in Azerbaijan: Qudrat Hasan Guliyev - Ilham Aliyev - Razi Nurulayev - Elshad Musayev - Fazil Mustafa - Zahid Oruj (Azerbaijani press)

Uncontested elections

Almost none of the observers have doubts about the inevitability of Aliyev winning the elections, by a wide margin with the rest of the candidates.

According to Tofiq Qasimov, an expert on Azerbaijani affairs, Aliyev imposed himself as a president who enjoys enormous popularity as a result of his success in achieving tangible stability in the economy, with a growth rate that clearly exceeds that prevailing in most of the republics of the former Soviet Union, in addition to implementing bold economic projects that formed the geopolitical basis. For the oil policy of sovereign Azerbaijan.

He continued in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that Aliyev, over the past twenty years, has greatly strengthened Azerbaijan’s geopolitical presence in the region, as his reign has not only become a symbol of internal political stability, which is reflected, among other things, in the balance and growth of Azerbaijan’s economic indicators, But it is also an example of how a country can qualitatively enhance its international reputation.

According to the same speaker’s opinion, the rest of the candidates face a major problem in convincing citizens of electoral programs that, in any case, remain unfulfilled promises or slogans, in exchange for tangible achievements achieved by Aliyev during 20 years, who is entering the electoral race because he is a popular and strong leader who won the 44-day war. In Karabakh in 2020, and in 2023 he permanently returned the region that had previously been under Armenian control for about 30 years.

Qasimov points out that breakthroughs in internal development were also clearly reflected in demographic indicators. The population of Azerbaijan has increased by millions, according to the World Bank. At the same time, the per capita GDP increased 4.8 times during the period from 2003 to 2020, from $884 to $4,222, and the authorities were able to create more than 1,400,000 stable job opportunities.

The expert continues that Aliyev has strengthened the status and image of the Republic of Azerbaijan, not only in the South Caucasus region, but also on the world stage. It has established mutually beneficial bilateral relations with leading global and regional powers, as well as international organizations, in addition to pursuing a studied foreign economic policy that works to develop international cooperation in the field of energy with concerned parties, which include direct neighbors in the region and European countries.

Backfire

As for the researcher in South Caucasus affairs, Toral Abbasov, he points out that boycotting political parties that could constitute real opposition to the current president in the electoral race will not affect the legitimacy of the elections, but rather will favor the ballot boxes that support Aliyev.

He says that the interesting question is the amount of additional votes that the current president will receive, which will likely be more than at any time during his entire term in office.

The expert points out here that a number of opposition forces in Azerbaijan issued a joint statement about not recognizing the legitimacy of the elections, and refusing to participate in them, due to what they consider to be the submission of electoral committees to the control of the authorities, and the latter’s restriction of freedom of expression and assembly, making it limited to the greatest extent.

He concludes that the political system in Azerbaijan does not actually face any internal challenges, but rather has demonstrated the ability to resist a wide range of risks. According to him, this is not due to the state of weakness, polarization and dysfunction that the opposition forces suffer from, but rather the result of the leadership and administrative qualities that Aliyev possesses.

Source: Al Jazeera