More than 130 dead and hundreds missing, entire neighborhoods devastated, thousands of houses destroyed and more than 43,000 hectares of forest reduced to ashes. Chile observes Tuesday, February 6, a second day of national mourning in tribute to the victims of the devastating fires which affect the tourist regions of the center and south of the country. “The greatest climate tragedy in more than ten years,” according to Chilean President Gabriel Boric.

While an ongoing investigation will have to determine the causes of the hundreds of fire outbreaks recorded since February 2, one thing is certain: the flames spread very quickly.

Read alsoIn pictures: Chile devastated by deadly forest fires

An intense heat wave

According to Raul Cordero, a climatologist at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, previously based in Chile, weather conditions are the primary factor in explaining these deadly fires. “Since January 29, central Chile has been hit by an extreme and historic heat wave. The thermometer reached up to 40°C in places, and 35°C in Santiago del Chile. This is unprecedented ", he explains. “And to this persistent heat was added violent winds: the ideal parameters for seeing extreme fires appear.”

“Not to mention that the country has been experiencing a period of drought for several years,” adds Davide Faranda, climatologist at the CNRS and specialist in extreme weather events. “These three factors – very high temperatures, dry air and strong winds – make fires particularly difficult to control. Even more so in terrain marked by relief where interventions are more complicated.”

“Another important element: above 35°C, certain species of trees are no longer able to function normally and behave like dead wood. They are therefore much more likely to catch fire,” he continues.

During this period, which corresponds to the southern summer in South America, forest fires are common in Chile, with around 6,000 fires starting each year, according to Raul Cordero. “But this time, the flames were able to spread in an unprecedented way thanks to these weather conditions,” he summarizes.

Faced with this observation, the two scientists point the finger at the same culprit: climate change. “We know that it amplifies meteorological phenomena and therefore that the current record temperatures are linked to it,” recalls the Chilean climatologist. “It is therefore under its effect that the usual fires are transforming into disasters.”

Also read Weather: global warming and the mechanics of extremes

Warming amplified by El Niño

But the heat wave affecting Chile is also partly linked to the climatic and cyclical phenomenon El Niño, add the two climatologists. “By warming the waters of the Pacific cyclically, it causes droughts, increases in temperature, or conversely, floods,” explains David Faranda. “And these conditions will, again, be amplified by climate change.”

An “explosive cocktail”, deplores Raul Cordero. “We experienced significant fires in Chile during all previous episodes of El Niño, notably in 1982 and 1998,” he recalls. “But it is by adding the global warming factor that we arrive at the situation that the country is currently experiencing.”

Chile is not the only Latin American country affected by this problem. Colombia has also been hit by fires in recent weeks, recalls the American channel CNN. And if temperatures are expected to drop from Wednesday in Chile, a heat wave is now expected to affect Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil.

South America is experiencing the most extreme heat wave in its history: hundreds of records are smashed all over.


More records:


GUYANA 37.4 Lethem Hottest February day in Guyanese history


FRENCH GUIANA 35.1 St Laurent record broken for the 3rd time in a row


SURINAME 34.4 Paramaribo pic.twitter.com/0Ds1MdMlhh

— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) February 4, 2024

“Faced with this combination of phenomena, we consider South America to be one of the most vulnerable territories in the face of climate change,” concludes Davide Faranda. “If we do nothing to limit our greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change, we can expect the continent to experience ever more heat waves, droughts and therefore devastating fires.”

“Focus on better prevention”

Beyond the combined effects of El Niño and climate change, several other parameters are put forward to explain the extent of the damage.

During previous fires, in 2023, which particularly affected the south of the country, where immense pine and eucalyptus plantations extend, “large monocultures had been singled out for the spread of fires”, recalls Raul Codero. “But in the center of the country, the vegetation is more diverse and therefore certainly did not play a determining role,” he believes.

On the other hand, from Friday, the fire reached the hills on the outskirts of the seaside resorts of Viña del Mar and Valparaiso – very densely populated areas. “And in this sector as in others, families often live crowded together in light constructions,” recalls the climatologist, often made of wood and therefore easily flammable.

According to survivors' accounts, the flames rushed through the narrow, heavily populated streets of the hills, at the same time destroying entire rows of cars parked in front of houses.

“These are also areas where significant security problems remain,” he continues. “The population did receive evacuation orders, but preferred to ignore them or, worse, not believe them. This shows that we really need to focus on better prevention.”

On the state side, President Boric has increased the budget devoted to fire prevention and fighting by 47% over the last two years. In total, some 1,400 firefighters and 1,300 soldiers and volunteers, supported by 31 helicopters and water-throwing planes, were mobilized to fight the flames.

“A great step forward,” greets Raul Cordero. “But unfortunately this is not enough.” Among the problems raised by several experts: the country does not have nighttime fire-fighting resources. “Therefore, the probability that all the work done during the day will be lost during the night is very high,” emergency management expert Michel De L'Herbe told Cooperativa radio.

The France 24 summary of the week

invites you to look back at the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you! Download the France 24 application