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Unknown location, North Korea
Rocket launches, at intervals of just a few days: North Korea repeatedly fired cruise missiles at the beginning of the year. These images are intended to document the most recent ballistic test. On the state news website, the maneuver is described as a "review of the capacity for rapid counterattacks and an improvement in strategic strike capability."
What is Kim Jong Un planning?
A widely noted analysis by two US experts says: The North Korean dictator made the strategic decision to go to war.
Katharina Peters, DER SPIEGEL
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These two renowned experts say that North Korea has decided to carry out the first strike against South Korea and that the situation on the Korean peninsula is as dangerous as it was at the beginning of 1950. That was the beginning of the Korean War, there are more than 4 million people died. And US government officials are now being quoted in American media saying that they are very concerned about the situation: Kim Jong UN has expanded his missile arsenal, including his nuclear arsenal. So he has about 50 to 60 nuclear warheads now. And what worries many people is that he is becoming more and more aggressive in his speeches.
Pyongyang January 15th
One thing is certain: Kim Jong Un has given up his long-standing official goal of peaceful reunification with South Korea. In his speech to parliament in mid-January, Kim described South Korea as the "most hostile state."
A provocative change, broadcast by state television. The neighbors' concerns are growing:
Kim's military wouldn't even need long-range missiles to attack South Korea.
The artillery of the 1.3 million-strong army also poses a significant threat. The greater Seoul area is partly within the 60-kilometer range of possible artillery fire. About half of the South Korean population lives here.
Katharina Peters, DER SPIEGEL:
»In political Seoul and also in the military, people are already worried. Because the provocations have a new intensity. For example, North Korea fired 200 artillery shells into the sea at the beginning of January and nearby South Korean islands had to be evacuated. However, if you talk to experts in Seoul now, it's not so much that they fear a military first strike - that would also be a big risk for the regime - but rather that provocations at the border are increasing.
South Korea's president recently warned that North Korea could try to disrupt April's parliamentary elections.
January 31, Seoul
Yoon Suk-Yeul, President South Korea:
“We expect various provocations this year aimed at disrupting our elections, such as border provocations, drone infiltrations, fake news and cyberattacks. «
Vladivostok, April 2019
These are provocations straight out of Vladimir Putin's textbook. The two dictators have grown closer over the years. In addition to China's Xi as its main ally, there is now a new, powerful partner. The Russian-North Korean solidarity has reached a new dimension since Putin's war of aggression on Ukraine:
Vostochny September 2023
At the last meeting in September, Kim emphasized his country's "full and unconditional support" in defending Russian security interests.
Katharina Peters, DER SPIEGEL:
»North Korea has supplied Russia with weapons and now, for example, rockets or ammunition are being used against the Ukrainians. The dangerous thing about the current situation is that for the first time he can test his missiles under real war conditions. That means he can improve it, he can draw his conclusions from it. And it's dangerous for South Korea because they see it as a simulation of an attack.
In recent years, it has been routinely said that North Korea's grandiose display of "military power" is nothing but saber rattling, and that Kim Jong Un is just a bogeyman from Pyongyang - and should be taken about as seriously as the bizarre-looking images from North Korean state television.
At least the most recent analyzes challenge this picture: both the elections in South Korea and the upcoming military exercises with the USA in March would be cause for provocations and incidents - and thus the military danger on the Korean peninsula would increase in the coming months.
Katharina Peters, DER SPIEGEL:
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What matters is how the South Korean government responds. The previous government was more interested in rapprochement and reconciliation with Pyongyang. And then a lot was accepted. So every rocket test was referred to as firing a projectile. So it was rather trivialized. And the new South Korean government? She has a much harder line. So there is a tendency to react very harshly and overreact. And many fear that these two Korean states will inflate each other and that this will lead to an escalation.