The subject was at the heart of the standoff between the military putschists and the sub-regional organization. Since the successive coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been trying to obtain clear commitments from the new leaders regarding the organization of elections allowing the return of a civilian government to power.

Delicate negotiations which, despite the imposition of heavy sanctions, never really came to fruition. By jointly announcing their departure from ECOWAS on Sunday, January 28, the leaders of the three countries criticized the organization for its lack of support in the fight against terrorism as well as the adoption of “illegal, illegitimate and inhumane” punitive measures. This withdrawal also marks the end of negotiations on the electoral calendar, which the military had shown little inclination to put in place.

Long drawn out battle

In Mali, the first country affected by the wave of coups d'état which has spread in recent years in West Africa, the negotiations initiated by ECOWAS on the duration of the transition have experienced numerous twists and turns. After the putsch of August 2020, marking the fall of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, the sub-regional organization imposed an economic embargo, closing its borders with the country while maintaining deliveries of essential goods. The military then set up a civilian government which was committed to holding elections within two years, set for February 27, 2022. But the second coup d'état in May 2021 shattered this promise.

This deadline was set "based on the principled positions of ECOWAS", explained the Prime Minister of the transition, Choguel Maïga, deeming it unrealistic. “It is better to have a few more weeks, even a few more months” than to fall back into a new post-electoral crisis, like the one which led to the fall of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, he warned then, on France 24.

Since then, the transition duration has been changed several times. At the end of December 2021, following national meetings, Assimi Goïta proposed extending it for five years. A duration ultimately reduced to two additional years during a new standoff with ECOWAS. Before the announcement of the organization's withdrawal, the Malian authorities had again postponed, to September 2023, the election scheduled for February 4, 2024, for "technical reasons", without giving a new date.

Also read: West Africa: why are Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso divorcing ECOWAS?

Anti-terrorism as a standard

In Burkina Faso as in Mali, the defined electoral calendar has since been relegated to oblivion. Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, who overthrew President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré in January 2022, committed to holding elections in July 2024, before being himself overthrown by the young Captain Ibrahim Traoré, in September 2022. The latter initially said he wanted to maintain this schedule, before distancing himself. “It is not a priority, I tell you clearly, it is security which is the priority,” he declared about the organization of the elections a year later.

In Niger, although less affected than its neighbors by the terrorist attacks of groups linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, the coup authorities also justified their intervention by the "deterioration of the security situation".

Following the coup d'état of July 2023, ECOWAS once again initiated negotiations with the junta for the establishment of an electoral calendar. She threatened the new leaders with military intervention to restore constitutional order, without succeeding in getting them to relent.  

“The military's approach, which consists of placing the fight against terrorism before the question of democracy, effectively pushes away the return to constitutional order because no one knows when security will return,” analyzes Abba Seidik, journalist specializing in the Sahel. “In Burkina the situation is, it is true, particularly difficult, but what about Mali, where the authorities have regained control of Kidal? Or Niger, where it was possible to organize a presidential? The situations are not all the same. The subject of the elections is perhaps not the primary reason for the withdrawal of the three countries from ECOWAS. But it is clear that it removes any possibility of pressure in this area ".

“Militaro populism” 

For Thierry Vircoulon, associate researcher at the Sub-Saharan Africa Center at Ifri (French Institute of International Relations), the decision to leave the organization only confirms the death of these unsuccessful negotiations initiated by ECOWAS.

“The commitments on the organization of elections by the military in Mali and Burkina Faso were made within the framework of a dialogue with the sub-regional organization which no longer existed,” he analyzes. "The holding of elections was already buried and the exit from ECOWAS is only the ultimate proof. These countries practice military populism, they do not intend to confront the results of the polls and organize popular mobilizations to legitimize themselves.

“The holding of elections is certainly demanded by regional partners and the international community but also, and we must not forget, by a silent part of the populations in these countries,” adds Abba Seidik. "However, these are evolving in a context where freedom of expression has been considerably reduced. In Mali, critical positions expose us to online lynching campaigns, and it is even worse in Burkina where we have given that one could be requisitioned for criticizing the government.

Read alsoBurkina Faso: a first legal victory bringing hope for requisitioned civilians

In Bamako, a few rare voices were expressed against the announced withdrawal of the sub-regional organization. In a press release, the coordination of the February 20 Appeal, which brings together opposition political parties and civil society movements critical of the transitional authorities, denounced a decision "taken without any form of democratic debate". For their part, the leaders of the three countries, united under the banner of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), organized “major mobilizations of support” on February 1 to celebrate a “courageous and historic” decision.

During an interview with former RFI journalist Alain Foka, after the announcement of the ECOWAS withdrawal, the leader of Burkina Faso hit the nail on the head on the question of holding elections in his country. “There must be a minimum of security so that, if there is a campaign, people can go everywhere in Burkina to explain their ideas,” insisted Ibrahim Traoré, careful not to set any course. He also defended the "rise in power" of the Burkinabè army, assisted by volunteers for the defense of the homeland, "today on the offensive in most areas" of the country. “We must know how to awaken patriotism in each people, give them confidence, know that their homeland is the only thing they have left. We have succeeded in doing that,” he said.

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