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Central Europe: with the war in Ukraine and over the course of the elections, the Visegrad group is disintegrating
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, this group of Central European countries, formed in 1991, has been fractured. The position of Viktor Orban's Hungary, an ally of Russia, is the opposite of that of the three other members: Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. And the latest elections in the region have not helped anything.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban during a summit of Visegrad countries in Budapest, in 2021. AFP - LUDOVIC MARIN
By: Romain Lemaresquier Follow
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Until a few years ago, the Visegrad group - named after the Hungarian city where it met for the first time - was able to influence the decisions taken by the
European Union
. Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia then held the same discourse and shared the same ambitions: a single market, the freedom of movement of people, goods, merchandise and services, while promoting the idea that It was necessary to give back to the Member States their national competences.
In 2015, this group, which was until then unknown to the general public, found itself at the forefront of the media scene
during the migration crisis
by forming a united front against the massive arrival of migrants from Syria. A speech which found little echo in the other Member States of the Union.
This alliance was shattered on February 24, 2022 with the launch of Vladimir Putin's “special operation”. This conflict called into question the ambitions of a group which until then wanted to influence the European scene, details Jacques Rupnik, political scientist, professor at Sciences Po and specialist in Central Europe. “
Since the start of the war, the unity of this group has been shattered, in particular because the alliance between Poland and Hungary, that is to say between
Viktor Orban
and Jaroslaw Kaczyński
[who was at the time the conservative Polish Prime Minister, Editor's note]
was broken. On February 22, 2024, there was a complete divergence between Polish support for Ukraine and Hungary's indulgence towards Vladimir Putin. And between these two countries, there were the Slovaks and the Czechs who, on the question of the war, were closer to Poland and who also gave firm support to kyiv.
» Divisions which have persisted ever since, and which have even worsened in recent months after the elections in Slovakia and Poland.
Polish elections redefine balances
The legislative elections in Poland held on October 15 put an end to the ultra-conservative government of Mateusz Morawiecki of the PIS, the Law and Justice party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczyński.
Although it came first at the end of this election, the PIS did not have the votes necessary to form a government. It is therefore the former President of the European Council Donald Tusk who now leads the country at the head of a broad coalition. A change of majority which marked a rupture within the Visegrad group. Because even if Poland and Hungary were until then opposed on the question of the conflict in Ukraine, the two countries continued to share the same ambition for Europe.
Poland remained a key asset for Viktor Orban until then, because the conservative PIS government would, for example, never have voted for Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) against Hungary, i.e. say the article which allows sanctions to be taken against a Member State - unanimity minus one vote is necessary to trigger such a mechanism.
A weaker Budapest-Bratislava axis
The Slovak legislative elections which were held on September 30, 2023 also redistributed the cards within the Visegrad group with the election of the conservative Robert Fico. “
He adopted a position which, on many levels, is close to that of Viktor Orban’s Hungary
,” explains Jacques Rupnik.
He had also campaigned on the idea that his country should not support Ukraine militarily, which does not mean that he is against economic or humanitarian support.
»
But even if Viktor Orban has perhaps found a new ally within this Visegrad group, Slovakia and its five and a half million inhabitants are no match for 38 million Poles and above all do not want to be offended by Brussels, explains the political scientist: “
Could Slovakia somehow replace Poland in this role and serve as a lock or guarantee for Hungary? Nothing is less certain because Slovakia is a coalition government. It has certainly moved closer to Hungary, but it is cautious and does not want to do anything, undertake anything that could compromise its place in the European Union
. »
After this redistribution of cards within the Visegrad group, what is its reason for existence today, knowing that it was initially created to facilitate the accession of the former satellites of the Soviet Union to NATO and to the European Union? For Jacques Rupnik, this group “
can continue to exist, to function, but with restricted political ambitions. We must not forget that initially, it was above all an instrument of regional cooperation between Central European countries. And so everything that concerns exchanges, not only economic exchanges, but also cultural, academic exchanges, et cetera, all regional cooperation can continue. On the other hand, what is called into question is the ambition that the Visegrad group had, at a given moment, to have influence as such on the European scene
. »
And if by chance the conflict in Ukraine continues, the divisions between the four members of this group could further accentuate to the point that it could ultimately disappear.
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