When the Taiwan region's leadership election ends in 2024, the Democratic Progressive Party will continue to be in power, and energy issues will become the focus of attention. Taiwanese media reported that when talking about energy policy, politicians from the Democratic Progressive Party said that "Taiwan has no shortage of electricity" and that energy conservation is a priority over the development of new power sources. The public questioned, is it so difficult to respect the facts? Isn’t it because of the lack of electricity that we are under great pressure to save electricity?
For the past eight years, the DPP authorities have been in power, and the gap between their actions and people's expectations cannot be calculated. Now that Taiwan's "2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland" goal led by the Democratic Progressive Party has entered the countdown to implementation, many officials in charge have frequently emphasized that "power supply is safe." Is this really the case?
dilemma
The remarks of the DPP politician attracted ridicule from netizens on the island: "Of course there is no shortage of electricity, it just jumps." "'Taiwan is not short of electricity,' we can use love to generate electricity." Some people rewrote an ancient poem and said: "Talent The eyebrows are down, and the lack is in the heart."
The reason why people are so disrespectful is because the facts are there. In the past few years, power outages have occurred all over Taiwan. According to reports, Kaohsiung City experienced multiple large-scale power outages in May and November last year. In March 2022, a large-scale power outage occurred without warning on the island, with a total number of households without power reaching approximately 5.49 million. The unstable power supply has become a chronic problem and has attracted great attention from all walks of life. Taiwan's "United Daily News" published an editorial pointing out that the Democratic Progressive Party authorities have evaded the serious issue and ignored the fact of power shortage. Taiwan Electric Power Company (hereinafter referred to as "Taipower") is heavily in debt, which makes this lie self-defeating.
Taipower's cumulative losses as of the end of 2023 reached 382 billion yuan (New Taiwan Dollars, the same below). The reason given by Taiwan's economic department is that it is affected by imported inflation and price increases. Scholars on the island do not agree with this. In an interview, Ye Zongyu, a professor at the Department of Engineering and Systems Science at Tsinghua University in Taiwan, believed that the fact that international energy prices have fallen back and the losses are still so large is mainly related to the DPP's insistence on the aggressive energy policy of "2025 Non-nuclear Homeland". The "Non-Nuclear Homeland" requires that nuclear energy will no longer be used in 2025, and the energy power generation ratio target of 20% renewable energy, 50% natural gas and 30% coal-fired energy will be achieved.
Ye Zongyu believes that the high proportion of thermal power generation is the main reason for Taipower's soaring power generation costs. As a comparison, the cost advantage of nuclear power must be mentioned. In the past, when several nuclear power units were operating normally, they supplied more than 40 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity every year, and the cost at that time was only 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour. However, in order to cooperate with the "2025 non-nuclear homeland", the DPP can only continue to increase the proportion of thermal power generation when green energy cannot keep up. As a result, Taiwan's electricity prices simply do not reflect rising power generation costs. Taipower, which suffered a huge loss, is still suffering.
If electricity prices are not raised significantly, the huge financial black hole cannot be filled by the budget of the DPP authorities alone, and Taipower will have no choice but to go bankrupt. To fully reflect costs, electricity prices will rise by at least 50 to 60%, which will inevitably lead to rising prices and public opinion. A strong rebound was expected. Facing the hot potato of Taipower, the Democratic Progressive Party authorities are also in a dilemma.
turn a blind eye
Taiwan's nuclear power construction started very early, with low prices and stable supply. It has made important contributions to the island's economic development over the years. But the DPP turned a blind eye to this and was determined to abolish nuclear weapons after coming to power. A political observer on the island told reporters that the Democratic Progressive Party has two things in its "party platform" that cannot be touched. One is the "Taiwan independence" card in politics, and the other is the anti-nuclear card in energy. Tsai Ing-wen, the current leader of the authorities, once led the "Abolition of Nuclear March" and shouted "nuclear power to zero." Taipower first proposed building a fourth nuclear power plant in 1978. However, due to the strong boycott and even hunger strikes of the Democratic Progressive Party, the project went through many suspensions, reconstructions, delays, and was finally "shelved and suspended."
An article published by Taiwanese media believes that the cost of nuclear waste is too high, and as the number of nuclear power units continues to decrease in the future, the cost of power generation will continue to increase, and the price of electricity will only become more and more expensive. This is precisely the fact that the DPP authorities are unwilling to tell the people. The solution given by the authorities is to vigorously develop renewable energy, that is, green electricity. However, the development scale of the “green energy pie” planned during the election was far lower than expected by the DPP and the outside world. Taiwan’s green power will only increase from 4.8% in 2016 to 8.3% in 2022. In the process, sequelae such as political and business collusion, sacrifice of farmland, and reduced fish catches were also derived.
At the beginning of the new year, many mainstream media outlets in Taiwan published comments calling on the Democratic Progressive Party authorities to review and adjust the current energy policy. In response, DPP politicians used the excuse of “prioritizing energy conservation”. But people have memories. Previously, Tsai Ing-wen’s administration had launched a campaign to “turn off air conditioners for civil servants” during peak electricity consumption in summer. In the scorching summer, the government ignored the sweat of grassroots public officials in order to save energy. Naturally, it was met with collective protests and ended in nothing.
The fact is that "non-nuclear", carbon reduction and stable and cheap electricity are currently difficult to achieve on the island. Many Taiwanese scholars have clearly pointed out that if the current goal is to achieve a "non-nuclear homeland" by 2025, Taiwan's power shortage crisis will only become more serious. Some public opinion directly criticized it, saying that if it can't be done, it can't be done, and the "delay" of the "non-nuclear" goal will soon become a fact.
discouraged
It is reported that the DPP authorities will hold an electricity price review meeting in March. Taipower's recent statement also hinted that rising electricity prices are inevitable. Some netizens complained and criticized, "Didn't they say there would be no shortage of electricity? Why did the electricity price increase? Choose one before and another after!"
Xie Yifeng, a "legislator" of the Chinese Kuomintang, said that if electricity prices are raised, the increase in industrial electricity costs will be passed on to people's livelihood industries. The increase in electricity prices and commodity prices is what the people are most concerned about. How to solve the impact of "rising voices" on people's livelihood? The DPP politicians who insisted that "there is no shortage of electricity" did not give an answer.
In addition to the impact on people's livelihood, the chaotic energy policy also brings greater hidden worries to the long-term development of the island. During the 2022 "nine-in-one" election, candidates from the Democratic Progressive Party in Kaohsiung and Taoyuan wildly advocated that TSMC would build factories there. Regardless of anything else, the DPP authorities are completely unable to guarantee the large-scale, continuous and stable power supply required by the semiconductor industry. Relevant statistics show that a one-hour power outage at TSMC may cause losses of approximately 9 billion yuan.
Without a stable power supply, not only is TSMC unable to expand its factories, but foreign companies that originally intended to invest in Taiwan are also deterred. A recent survey showed that “stable power generation” and “lag behind in green energy progress” are important factors that worry foreign investors. A recent column in Taiwan's "Economic Daily" pointed out that the playing of the magic flute of "a non-nuclear homeland" has become a "curse" for Taiwan's economic growth today. Taiwan's economic growth rate last year was roughly estimated at only 1.42%. Taiwanese media said that if the economic situation recovers in 2024, the first priority will be to ensure stable power supply this summer.
The summer peak electricity consumption from June to September is quickly approaching. When the price of electricity will rise, and how to fill the gap in electricity consumption, we have to let the Democratic Progressive Party authorities on stage take the lead. Someone asked, can the Democratic Progressive Party, which continues to be in power, bear the risk of encountering a major blackout within a short period of time after taking office? It is estimated that no one dares to make a guarantee. Of course, since the Democratic Progressive Party came to power, there have been so many lice that they are not afraid of biting them. In addition to insufficient power supply, the island has experienced a series of problems such as lack of eggs, lack of medicine, lack of water, lack of land, and lack of manpower in recent years. This is not the first time that Taiwan has no shortage of electricity, and it will certainly not be the last time. Some people on the island helplessly told reporters that the goal of removing the DPP has not been achieved, and everyone can only bear this outcome together. (People's Daily Overseas Edition reporter Ren Chengqi)