Ukraine war: These are the consequences of the failure of the EU ammunition plan for Kiev

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Ukrainian artillery position in Donetsk: Russia is currently firing 10,000 shells a day

Photo: Roman Pilipey / AFP

One million artillery shells – that’s how much the EU actually wanted to deliver to Ukraine by March. Brussels has now had to admit that the states can't even manage half of that; the goal is not expected to be met until the end of the year.

The situation on the front is becoming increasingly precarious; Kiev's troops are already lacking ammunition to respond to Russian attacks. Often they only have smoke grenades to fire back. Drones sometimes have to be used for counter-fire.

"The current ratio in artillery is 5 to 1 in favor of the Russians," says independent military expert Franz-Stefan Gady. "Due to the bottlenecks, this could shift towards 6 to 1, 7 to 1 or even beyond." However, this is not a decisive advantage for Moscow's troops, which means that the superiority is unlikely to enable them to make any major breakthroughs.

Gains in terrain for Moscow

Most recently, Russia was able to record minimal territorial gains in the north near Kupyansk and Avdiivka in Donbass, but it also paid for this with extremely high losses. According to Gady, further successes and straightening of the front are possible, but they would not have any significant strategic influence.

Russia currently fires 10,000 shells a day, while the Ukrainian side only fires 2,000. “However, at least 3,000 would be ideal for a defensive strategy,” adds the expert. The Ukrainians will therefore initially have to dig in as best as possible and can only carry out local counterattacks.

Coming up with the necessary numbers will likely continue to be difficult in the next few months because, in addition to the EU, the USA is also weak as a supplier. There is still a dispute in Washington over new aid packages for the Ukrainians. In addition, the American defense industry is only getting off to a slow start.

Is the trend reversal coming?

However, five European heads of government, including Chancellor Scholz, vowed to improve the situation in view of the bottlenecks. They want to deliver as much material as possible to the Ukrainians as quickly as possible, even if they have to dig deeper into their own warehouses than before.

Experts like Gady believe the industry will only be able to supply the Ukrainians with sufficient ammunition from the end of the year. The result: A counteroffensive could not start until 2025 – assuming the contracts are fulfilled.