Pablo R. SuanzesBrussels Correspondent
Brussels Correspondent
Updated Thursday, February 1, 2024-00:02
European Union The EU renounces appeasement and threatens to go into a total clash with Hungary
"It is the height of frustration. In December it was very high and now it is at an unparalleled level.
We have never seen anything like it."
With these words, high-ranking community sources summarize an unprecedented situation in Brussels.
There are precedents of countries blocking or vetoing key issues for their economy or national politics from time to time. There are cases of isolated and pressured governments, like Greece with its bailout. And even examples, like Brexit, of endless grueling meetings with difficult members. But for a capital to block and veto a decision that has little to do with it. Let him change his opinion and version every day to justify it. And that he does so, without disguising his sympathies with Moscow, with arrogance, aggressiveness and "putting at risk the security and strategic priorities of the Union as a whole", is something exceptional. And, if anything has become clear in the last five years, with the pandemic or the Russian invasion, it is that extraordinary situations require out-of-the-ordinary responses.
The heads of State and Government of the EU meet today in Brussels with a single point on the agenda:
to approve the review of the Multiannual Financial Framework
, the Community Budget, which includes as its most important point a mechanism of
up to 50 billion euros to sustain Ukraine economically
for the next four years. It should have been resolved in December, but Hungary prevented it. Viktor Orban allowed the EU to approve the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, but blocked the revision of the Financial Framework, which requires unanimity. The president of the European Council,
Charles Michel
, decided that instead of staying locked up for three days generating friction, it was best to give a month and a half to find solutions, and summon everyone again. They are going to do that, but the summary from all the sources consulted is that hardly any progress has been made, that Budapest is still at the same point and that the possibilities of reaching an agreement are not very high.
"We have looked for solutions to open issues, we have considered different mechanisms for annual reviews or emergency brakes, or how to cover the payment of interest on Ukraine's debt, but none of them have been resolved. It does not imply that the Summit will be a failure per se, but it is increasingly complicated. They are very political issues, but also very technical. And it is very difficult for the leaders, alone in the room without their team, to be able to solve it on their own," explain sources involved in the front line. of the negotiations.
There are two major difficulties. The first, that
no one is very clear about what Orban wants
. "We don't know exactly. There are many inconsistencies in their arguments. There are some concerns that may be true about the Magyar minorities in Ukraine. But they also change their minds often. It is not coherent. Their people are not able to say what they want, what are its thresholds," say those involved.
The second, that although his problem is almost personal with Ukraine (because he does not share the rest's view of Putin,
due to the quarrels between his country and Kiev
, due to nationalism, etc.), the demands that he has effectively made are not only political. The ideas that they have been releasing, such as that the possible money to Ukraine be decided each year, to always have the capacity to stop it, that they not be helped with the debt, that countries that have not received community funds for different reasons, like them , do not have to participate or can receive a refund check, are all techniques.
Something for ambassadors, officials, lawyers and economists to work on, but in the last six weeks it has been seen that progress was not going to be made at that level. It is something for leaders, pure politics, and heads of state and government can do many things, but at the level required by discussions about cascading options for interest payments, to use bilateral guarantees to make loans or whether treaties protect the possibility of binding reviews each year. "A solution is possible but when the leaders sit down, emotions will play a lot, so it is impossible to predict what the dynamics will be like.
An agreement is possible if there is a will
, but it should have been possible to do it already. It has not been the case, so that a Council with growing frustration is coming," the diplomats admit.
The rest of the delegations say that
Orban is isolated as never before
. There are countries like Italy or Slovakia that in discussions at the ambassador level have sympathized with some ideas, but when push comes to shove they are in favor of the package. Everything was decided in December and there are 26 ready. The problem is time. The solution at 27 and within the Budget is effective and would allow a disbursement to Ukraine, if all goes well, in March, when the most pressing liquidity needs would begin. But if a different solution has to be found, either at 26 and within the margins of the Financial Framework, it would be very complicated.
There are ways to use the money not spent in the 26 for immediate short-term loans, but a complete solution, to try to reach those 50 billion,
would require additional bilateral guarantees
from all governments, and passage through national parliaments. We're talking about maybe a year. What no one wants to even mention is the possibility of opening the box that was closed in December, because the balance was very fragile. And if a game were played to satisfy one, the others could ask for the same and chaos would be absolute.
For all this, the tone has risen a lot. In Brussels there has been speculation in the last week with the
'nuclear button' option
, applying Article 7 of the Treaties to leave a State without a vote, something that has never been done and that would have consequences that are impossible to predict. Or even use all means to pressure or even economically suffocate Hungary, which is not part of the euro and has high debt and inflation. Orban talks about threats, blackmail, trying to crush those who think differently about migration. And the institutions say that neither of the two options are realistic or even logical, since the mechanisms on the Rule of Law, they argue, are only for Rule of Law issues.
But all this allows us to anticipate a tense summit, with many countries that have lost patience and are hiding it less and less. With concrete reproaches, accusations. Direct messages. The aspiration continues to be an agreement at 27, but Plans B, which no one wants to talk very loudly about, are going to have to begin to materialize and take shape.
THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE DISCOMFORT OF THE COUNTRYSIDE
Although the only topic on the agenda is the issue of the Budget and Ukraine, there are two elements that cannot possibly not be part of the discussion when 27 heads of government sit in a room. Or when many of them go to dinner together, as happened this Wednesday night, after an event in memory of Jacques Delors.
The first is the situation in the Middle East, with the usual three axes:
stability, humanitarian aid and the search for a solution
through the two-state solution. A long debate is not expected, nor very different conclusions, but what is expected is that it will be touched upon in some way.
The second is the
farmers' protests
, the unrest in the countryside throughout the continent. It will be inevitable because the agricultural associations have called for a large demonstration that will approach the European neighborhood of Brussels, where the leaders meet. Monumental traffic jams are expected, but probably also some type of incident and even riots. The security recommendations for journalists and officials are that they try to enter the facilities first thing in the morning, in anticipation that the demonstrations lead to something else and the perimeter is completely closed.