Military rule in Myanmar faces an increasing challenge as armed opposition movements advance in an unprecedented manner (opposition accounts)

Jakarta -

Myanmar's ruling National Security and Defense Council has extended the state of emergency for another 6 months, which means delaying any elections that the military has been promising to re-hold after its coup on this day in 2021 and aborting the results of the November 2020 elections, which the National League won from Democracy was postponed under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi, and the party representing the military retreated.

The army's electoral chances have been gradually declining since 2010 and during the four polling seasons that its party ran in, ending up overthrowing the last elected parliament on February 1, 3 years ago, and what remained of a democratic margin.

Opponents called on citizens to go on strike throughout the day on Thursday, and not to leave their homes and shops to show a general state of silence in rejection of military rule.

One of the strike coordinators said that one of its goals is to demand that the international community stop selling the fuel needed for weapons, aircraft and equipment to the Myanmar army in its war with the armed opposition, and the second is to remind citizens of civil disobedience by not paying any taxes to the military administration.

Thousands of soldiers defected from the Myanmar army and joined the armed opposition (opposition accounts)

High humanitarian cost

According to a statement by the strike coordination, which includes 73 anti-coup organizations, the strike is a call to every soldier in the army to defect from his leadership and preserve his life and the lives of his citizens instead of dying in order to defend the army leaders.

After 3 years of recent military rule, the humanitarian cost is high. According to the opposition Aoun Association for Political Prisoners, as of January 30, 2024, the army arrested 25,915 civilians, and killed 4,453 others. But this list does not include many people killed in the border states, according to other opponents, as there are sources that speak of many times that number.

According to the “Conflict Locations and Armed Incident Data Project,” the situation in the Gaza Strip made Palestine the most dangerous place in the conflict index, followed by Myanmar and then Syria.

Military rule in Myanmar is facing an increasing challenge with the unprecedented advance of armed opposition movements representing various nationalities and minorities from the outskirts of the border states towards the center of the country in what has come to be called the "Spring Revolution."

The opposition is in a stronger position

Opposition field leaders believe that they are in a stronger position than they were three years ago, and some of them speak optimistically about a future political change whose broad title is to make Myanmar a federal or federal state in which minorities are granted the rights of self-government in their states.

The opposition Government of National Unity - which represents one of the political fronts of the opposition - estimates that 60% of the area of ​​Myanmar is under the control of armed opposition movements, and most of these areas are under the control of movements representing nationalities or minorities in their lands, in addition to those who began demonstrating and then turned to military action in the center of the country. They came under the umbrella of what is known as the "People's Defense Forces."

Today, the fighting is taking place against the military government in 12 of the 14 states and provinces in the country, and one of those armed movements is the “Alliance of Brotherhood,” which represents the Kachin, Chin, Karenni, and Rikyan nationalities, which are Christian and Buddhist nationalities. It launched a broad military campaign called “Operation 1027” in October. In the past, its result was the control of many military headquarters, and as a result, the cases of defection of soldiers and officers from their government increased.

According to Dr. Sasa, Minister of International Cooperation in the opposition government of national unity, 18,000 soldiers have defected or surrendered themselves since the 2021 coup, while others estimate the number at about 10,000 soldiers, officers and police.

Among the armed opposition movements is the "Arakan Army", which represents the Rikaine Buddhist nationality in Arakan (Rakhine), west of the country. This army controlled about 160 military points and sites and two towns.

Myanmar riot police suppress protesters against the military coup (European)

A forgotten tragedy

Human rights reports issued by the Rohingya Human Rights Initiative indicate that the Rohingya are caught between the fire of the army and the opposition Arakan Army, causing the death and injury of hundreds and the displacement of thousands during the past few weeks.

On the eve of the third anniversary of the coup, UN Human Rights Commissioner Volker Türk said in a statement that “in light of all the crises around the world, it is important not to forget the Myanmar people who have been suffering for a long time,” noting that the fighting between the army and armed opposition movements had caused the displacement of large numbers. Of civilians and thousands of deaths, due to aerial and artillery bombardment.

The UN Commissioner added that out of about 26,000 people who were arrested, there are about 20,000 who are still in prison, and that 1,576 people died in prison within 3 years.

According to the UN statement, “The army’s tactics are focused on punishing civilians, as in their view they support the enemy... Therefore, the army has continued to target civilians and all targets protected under international humanitarian law, such as health institutions and schools,” pointing in this regard to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Arakan State, which has been reflected on The Rohingya Muslim minority due to confrontations between the Arakan Army and the Myanmar Army.

Turk called on the international community to take appropriate steps to deal with the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, including imposing targeted sanctions on the military to limit their ability to engage in human rights violations, and limit their ability to access weapons, aviation fuel, and foreign currencies.

The military bypasses the sanctions

The UN official’s statement coincides with an investigation published by Amnesty International yesterday, Wednesday, the eve of the anniversary of the coup, in which it revealed through satellite images and navigation data that Myanmar’s soldiers are still obtaining fuel for their military aircraft, despite the American and European sanctions imposed on them, through intermediaries with exporting countries. For fuel, the organization documented 7 marine shipments linked to fuel tanks in Vietnam, making 2023 worse than the previous two years in this regard.

Added to all of this is the impact of this internal war on the economic situation, including a contraction in the economy, a decline in exports, the closure of hundreds of factories and companies, a decline in the value of the local currency, and an increase in poverty and unemployment rates that have affected more than half of the population, according to a report by the World Bank.

The deteriorating security and humanitarian situation in the country, in addition to the deteriorating economy, pushed 1.5 million people of various ethnicities, and in many states, to internal displacement during the past three years, according to UN sources, in addition to 70,000 others seeking refuge in neighboring countries such as Thailand.

Source: Al Jazeera