More cooperation or confrontation? The EU stands at a critical crossroads in its relations with China.

　　The EU recently suspended its World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute with China over the so-called "economic coercion of Lithuania" on the grounds of "technical reasons", paving the way for the EU's unilateral litigation proceedings initiated in January 2022. Pause button".

　　However, the EU is still promoting some economic security policies in the name of "risk removal": On January 24, the EU released the "European Economic Security Package" to strengthen controls on foreign direct investment and sensitive technology exports. The Chinese Chamber of Commerce in the European Union criticized this move as it may affect the development of Chinese companies in Europe and confidence in investment in Europe. The Financial Times disclosed on January 27 that the production crisis faced by the European solar manufacturing industry is causing the EU to consider setting up trade barriers against Chinese photovoltaic companies.

　　Economic and trade cooperation is the "ballast stone" of China-EU relations. Where will China-EU relations go in 2024: more cooperation or more confrontation? "European Action", a news website that focuses on reporting on EU policies, published an article saying that Europe is at a crossroads in its technology and economic and trade policies towards China.

The lawsuit was halted because "the chance of winning was close to zero."

　　According to a notice sent to member states by the WTO on January 26, the EU requested the organization’s expert panel on disputes on January 25 to “immediately suspend proceedings against China.” According to WTO regulations, the suspension period shall not exceed 12 months. If the EU chooses not to resume proceedings after the deadline, the dispute will be over.

　　Regarding the EU's suspension of WTO dispute proceedings with China, the European Commission's spokesman for trade affairs Olof Gill said, "This is a procedural step taken for technical reasons and is not related to a certain aspect of the written submission to be submitted. relevant to the assessment of some factors.” The US Political News Network quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that some lawyers from the EU believed that "the existing evidence is insufficient." Lithuania's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stated that the EU has the right to "take decisions proactively and explain decisions within its competences." Besa Gilskas, president of the Vilnius Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Lithuania, told the media that the EU suspended the dispute because "the chance of winning is close to zero."

　　In recent years, the Lithuanian government has frequently hyped up Taiwan-related issues and constantly provoked the bottom line of the one-China principle. In August 2021, Lithuania announced that it would allow the Taiwan authorities to establish a "representative office" in the name of "Taiwan"; in November of the same year, despite China's solemn protests and repeated representations, it allowed the Taiwan authorities to establish a "Taiwan Representative Office in Lithuania." This incident led to China announcing that it would downgrade the diplomatic relations between the two countries to the level of charge d'affaires.

　　In December 2021, the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Chinese Customs may have removed Lithuania from the system. In January 2022, the EU filed a lawsuit with the WTO over China's "discriminatory trade" practices against Lithuania. The United States then eagerly labeled China as so-called "economic coercion."

　　In response to this, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China have repeatedly pointed out that the so-called "coercion" by China against Lithuania is purely fabricated and confuses right and wrong. Neutrality disputes are political issues, not economic issues. China reminds the EU to distinguish right from wrong, be wary of Lithuania's attempts to hijack China-EU relations, and advise Lithuania, like other EU member states, to fulfill the political commitments made when establishing diplomatic relations with China.

Conditions exist for China and Europe to further strengthen dialogue

　　Some analysts say that the EU's suspension of dispute proceedings against China can be seen as a positive signal that tensions between the two parties have eased and that they are expected to seek consultations to resolve their differences. There is precedent for this under the WTO framework.

　　In November 2023, on the eve of Australian Prime Minister Albanese's visit to China, China and Australia conducted friendly consultations under the WTO framework on WTO disputes such as wine and wind towers that were of mutual concern, and reached a consensus on properly resolving them. In March of the same year, South Korea and Japan decided to suspend the WTO dispute settlement process and conduct consultations on export restrictions. Subsequently, leaders of South Korea and Japan exchanged visits, and the two countries returned to each other's "white lists" for export preferential treatment.

　　Judging from the recent interactions between China and the EU, conditions exist for the two sides to further strengthen dialogue.

　　First of all, at the beginning of 2024, the leaders of China and Europe continued the good interaction from the previous year. In December 2023, European Council President Michel and European Commission President von der Leyen came to China to attend the China-EU Leaders' Meeting, pushing high-level exchanges between China and Europe to a climax; on January 11 this year, Prime Minister Dirk of Belgium, which holds the rotating EU presidency, Luo visited China and became the first European leader to pay an official visit to China this year; from January 14 to 17, Chinese Premier Li Qiang was invited to attend the World Economic Forum 2024 Annual Meeting and pay official visits to Switzerland and Ireland; January On the 27th, the leaders of China and France exchanged congratulatory messages to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries... The intensive high-level exchanges between China and Europe highlighted the importance of China-EU cooperation and provided political guidance and forward momentum for the development of bilateral relations.

　　Secondly, China has recently continued to optimize its visa policy and successively granted unilateral visa-free treatment to seven European countries: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland and Ireland, continuously demonstrating its determination to open up to the outside world. Hong Kong's Asia Pacific Daily commented that this is China's effort to deepen China-EU cooperation.

　　Third, affected by the geopolitical conflicts between Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel, Europe's own economy is facing severe challenges such as high inflation and insufficient energy supply. The New York Times reported on January 30 that European Central Bank monetary policy experts have slightly lowered their economic growth expectations for the euro zone this year and next. This prompted the EU to find sources of power to boost the economy.

　　What is even more noteworthy is that the EU’s suspension of dispute proceedings against China in the WTO is inseparable from the mainstream opinions of its member states. Lithuania's hyping up of Taiwan-related issues and asking the EU to "endorse" it has already caused dissatisfaction among many EU countries. Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported on January 27 that some powerful member states within the EU believe that Lithuania has provoked unnecessary disputes for its own selfish interests.

The biggest challenge in China-EU relations comes from mutual understanding

　　"I think China-EU relations have shown an upward trend since taking office." Ambassador Fu Cong, who will take up his duties as the head of the Chinese Mission to the EU in December 2022, admitted in an exclusive interview with Bloomberg on January 25 this year that the current China-EU relations are also facing some problems. challenge. "The 'de-risking' strategy has created obstacles to China-EU relations. We fully understand the European side's desire to strengthen economic security, but the question is where is the border? How to balance economy and security? Europe has always been a staunch advocate of globalization and free economy in the past But frankly speaking, what the EU is showing now is more of an inward-looking tendency and protectionism. This is not good for the EU."

　　Fu Cong believes that economic problems are just superficial, and the biggest challenge facing China-EU relations currently comes from mutual understanding. There are a lot of discussions about geopolitical conflicts in Europe, and when China is involved, they are often based on misunderstandings.

　　After the EU released the "European Economic Security Strategy" in June 2023, the EU's China policy has continued to move closer to the so-called "risk removal." The "European Economic Security Package" introduced in January this year was also brewed against this background. The plan proposes five new measures, including: revising foreign direct investment review regulations, strengthening foreign investment risk monitoring and assessment, implementing export controls on dual-use technologies that affect EU security, supporting the research and development of drones, satellites and other related technologies, strengthening Research safety at EU and national levels, etc. According to Clara Brandi, a professor at the German Institute of Development and Sustainable Development, the EU’s move is intended to “try to get rid of its strong dependence on third countries.” Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto criticized the above-mentioned plan as a "political" attempt by "uncompetitive" EU countries to prevent Chinese investment in electric vehicles and other fields.

　　The Financial Times reported on January 27 that many European photovoltaic companies have recently announced the closure of factories, and the EU is considering imposing punitive tariffs or anti-dumping investigations on Chinese photovoltaic products, as well as implementing subsidies to encourage countries to keep factories running. In this regard, German media criticized that European photovoltaic companies have no obvious technical advantages and the so-called "subsidies" will not have substantial effects. The German Renewable Energy Association also warned that blindly targeting Chinese investments and companies could threaten workers engaged in related work in Europe.

　　“Europe is a beneficiary of the multilateral trading system.” The Wall Street Journal published an article on January 29, stating that it is precisely because of this that Brussels may re-examine Trump’s “America First” and “anti-globalization” policies. The election of the US president is "full of worries". Some observers believe that European Commission President von der Leyen's repeated defense that "de-risking" does not equal "decoupling" shows that the EU believes that "decoupling and disconnecting" the Chinese economy is not in its interests. This year both the European Parliament and the United States will hold general elections. How to get along with China will test the political wisdom of European leaders. As Ambassador Fu Cong said, China is willing to engage in dialogue with the EU on supply chain stability to eliminate mutual doubts. I believe that as long as Europe adheres to strategic independence, the world will not repeat the mistakes of the Cold War and bloc confrontation.

　　Special staff writer Li Yang, China Youth Daily·China Youth Daily reporter Jiang Tian Source: China Youth Daily