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Experts unanimously agreed that the expected prisoner exchange deal between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel has reached advanced stages, and will include a long truce, not a final ceasefire. They also ruled out military action by the Israeli occupation army along the Philadelphia axis separating Egypt and the Gaza Strip.

The expert on Israeli affairs, Dr. Muhannad Mustafa, said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will accept the deal that is being talked about, and will take political risks to preserve his government, as the challenge remains the approval of the Council of Ministers after the approval of the War Council.

Mustafa added - in his speech to the program “Gaza... What Next?” - that Netanyahu will accept the deal to restore the prisoners in Gaza, but while assuring the extreme right that he is continuing the war and will not stop it, he will also be strict about the issue of releasing Palestinian prisoners.

He pointed out that the deep state in Israel and a large faction in the government want this truce, not a complete ceasefire, indicating that the existence of a long truce will lead to the extreme right protesting against Netanyahu, and may lead to the overthrow of the government and the holding of early elections.

He continued by explaining that if Netanyahu opposes the deal, War Council member Benny Gantz will leave, which will increase the volume of protests and division in Israeli society over the goals of the war.

In this issue - Mustafa says - the extreme right considers the truce a defeat because it realizes that international movements will lead to stopping the war, and will deprive it of its dreams of re-settlement in Gaza, while there is a section that considers it a success, because it will achieve the most important demand of restoring the prisoners, and going on a political path that achieves Israeli goals.

"Ensuring Israel's security"

In turn, the senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, Dr. Liqaa Makki, confirmed that everything that is happening is within the negotiating context to ensure Israel’s security, stressing that Washington does not want any military presence of Hamas in Gaza and has no objection to it remaining politically.

He pointed out that the deal will not include the terms “ceasefire” and “disarmament of Hamas,” but will include mechanisms that will achieve both purposes, which is a long truce that may reach 6 months, which means Israel losing the momentum of the fighting, in addition to the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza or a transitional government taking over. The issue of security, and implies internal weapons control.

Makki asked, "Will Hamas agree to this deal, which involves an American desire to gradually destroy it, or will it refuse and continue fighting?" He added that there is a regional desire to end the war for fear of its expansion in the region.

He said that the deal has reached an advanced stage and requires a clear political decision, which explains - in his opinion - the arrival of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to the region to resolve its final details.

He pointed out that the talk is about recovering the largest possible number of Israeli prisoners, “which means that there will remain a number of prisoners, meaning there will remain cards of power in the hands of Hamas,” he said.

For his part, the military and strategic expert, Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi, believes that the negotiation process is going through a difficult process, and based on the terms of the expected agreement, all factors will be analysed.

He pointed out that Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid gave Netanyahu a lifeline instead of threatening the Ministers of Finance and National Security, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, stressing that this step would partially free him.

Al-Duwairi confirmed that the return of Hamas' civil administration in the northern Gaza Strip disturbed Israel, at a time when the occupation army was exhausted and exhausted, citing successive announcements about withdrawing combat brigades from Gaza as evidence.

Philadelphia Axis

While Al-Duwairi confirmed that military action in the Philadelphia axis was “out of the question,” Mustafa believed that the understandings - which were talked about in Israel - were expected, as the Israeli army was in favor of moving towards security understandings with Egypt, and not controlling the axis.

He pointed out that these understandings provide security for Israel, save it the trouble of carrying out a military operation with dire consequences, and avoid military and international repercussions.

Al-Duwairi stressed that the Israeli army was convinced that it would not achieve the goals of the war, and that Netanyahu was motivated by personal interests, “so he began to put pressure on the political decision-maker to discuss the day after the war.”

In turn, Makki's meeting believes that what is required is to please Israel in order for it to agree to a ceasefire, citing what is said about placing electronic devices and sensors to detect tunnels and build an underground wall with the aim of increasing the siege of Gaza and preventing its lifeline.

Source: Al Jazeera