Armed groups have benefited from the economic decline in several ways (Associated Press)

Climate change and its repercussions have topped the agenda of African priorities in recent years, and although the continent’s contribution to the amount of emissions causing environmental warming does not exceed 4% of the global total, it is classified among the most affected by the catastrophic consequences of climate change.

Floods, hurricanes, and disrupted rainy seasons destroy ecosystems and threaten the lives of communities dependent on them, opening the door to “climate wars” and conflict over dwindling resources.

In this regard, some researchers link the economic difficulties resulting from the loss of livelihoods as a result of severe climate changes such as floods, desertification, or soil erosion to the increased risk of violent conflicts in many regions of the continent, as rapid environmental deterioration does not give the population the opportunity to adapt to the conditions of the new reality, which is what It leaves them defenseless in the face of ever-declining economic and living conditions.

According to a research paper issued by a number of institutions, including the Swedish Institute for International Affairs, these rapid and sharp changes lead to an increase in local tensions and conflicts over the division of already limited resources. The aggravation of poverty and unemployment also prompts those affected by the destruction of their resources to seek to provide for their livelihoods by all available means, which is what It creates fertile ground for organized crime, violence and joining armed groups represents the most profitable economic alternative.

A study published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute considers the case of Lake Chad in West Africa an indicative example, as its massive shrinkage threatens the livelihood of 30 million farmers and fishermen who depend on it, which has turned its surroundings into an ideal environment for recruiting fighters for armed groups such as Boko Haram. Its activities are flourishing and expanding within the four countries bordering the lake, namely Niger, Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon.

The study, entitled “Climate Change and Violent Conflict in West Africa,” adds that armed groups have benefited from this economic decline in several ways. It played on political and economic grievances to agitate the population against the authorities and rally them behind them. It also worked to provide loans and salaries to attract recruits in communities exposed to climate change and environmental degradation, as well as employing its followers in illegal activities such as stealing and selling livestock, and smuggling and trafficking in drugs and weapons to obtain income. Revenues.

The danger of these transformations is that they build an “economic system” based on violence as a means of earning a living, paving the way for complex interactions that unleash continuous cycles of violence and counter-violence, as the countries of the region have witnessed, over the past years, an increasing security deterioration, and the Global Terrorism Index for 2023 classified both: Nigeria and Niger are among the ten most troubled countries in the world, while Cameroon and Chad are ranked 11th and 19th, respectively.

The drought hitting the Horn of Africa led to the death of more than 13 million livestock between 2020 and 2022 (Associated Press)

Conflicts between herders and farmers

The African continent includes 37% of the world's nomads, and the World Bank estimates the number of pastoralists at between 12 and 22 million people in the Horn of Africa alone, where they constitute the main population bloc in the arid and semi-arid regions that cover approximately 60% of its area.

These pastoralist communities represent one of the most vulnerable groups in the face of climate change, as the unprecedented drought hitting the Horn of Africa has led to the death of more than 13 million heads of livestock between 2020 and 2022 due to a lack of water and fodder, causing their owners to lose not only their source of income, but also the basis on which they depend. Their lives continue, according to Cyril Ferrand, FAO Resilience Team Leader for East Africa.

Movement in search of pastures constitutes the mainstay of the lives of these Bedouins, as they follow traditional roads and paths governed by customary laws and understandings with local communities that have been built over the years, which greatly curbs the possibilities of conflict between residents of areas rich in pastures and expatriate herders.

A research paper on climate change and violent conflicts in East Africa shows that drought resulting from ongoing climate change forces pastoralists to change their usual paths and move their livestock to new areas where grazing resources are available, which brings them into contact with new communities, where the lack of common mechanisms to regulate coexistence leads to Conflicts are resolved into violent conflicts resulting from competition over shared resources.

In this paper, researchers Sebastian van Baalen and Malin Mobjork monitor how the scarcity of resources in Ethiopia made the Karayu tribes less willing to allow herders from the Afar tribes to enter their pastures. When the Karayo tribe was forced to cross into the Afar region in search of pastoral resources, a violent conflict broke out between the two communities.

Low rainfall in the South Kordofan region of Sudan also contributed to an environmental crisis that prompted Bedouin groups to move south, which brought them into increasing conflict with farmers in the region.

Increasing immigration rates

Migration and internal displacement fall within the natural responses to facing complex humanitarian situations, such as the repercussions resulting from climate change, as the continuous dwindling of resources forces people to move to areas richer in the necessities of life, while heavy rains and floods force many to become repeatedly displaced in countries such as Somalia, Sudan, and Niger.

The report of the Global Displacement Monitoring Center revealed that the number of internally displaced people as a result of environmental disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022 reached 7.4 million, which is the highest number recorded by the region, an increase of nearly three times compared to the previous year, while it did not exceed 1.6 million in 2013.

Professor Alexander De Juan believes in a study published in 2015 that areas with high rates of migration and displacement have an increased risk of conflicts over resources, which are likely to escalate into acts of violence, given that groups coming from different regions and from different ethnicities often lack common institutions for resolving conflicts. They are also generally better at mobilizing resources for violence.

In his analysis of the early phase of the Darfur war, de Juan notes that violence was more widespread in areas where vegetation increased between 1982 and 2000, as they witnessed higher levels of incoming migration of tribes of different ethnicities fleeing the drought that struck their lands, which increased Interaction between them, and the effects of this appeared later. The conflict in Darfur that has been raging since 2003 has taken on a sharp ethnic character.

Fueling violence

One of the indirect repercussions of climate change on violent conflicts is related to elites exploiting low-intensity local conflicts by escalating them to achieve self-interests, as fueling violence becomes an effective way to get rid of opponents, and these elites continue to obtain support from the groups affected by them.

The danger of this exploitation is increased by the presence of social structures and structures, such as tribes and clans, ready to be mobilized against the backdrop of tensions resulting from conflict over resources such as land. Some studies indicate that three-quarters of all societal conflicts in Africa between 1989 and 2011 included land as an important source of competition.

In this context, local elites resort to cooperation with politicians and state officials. This leads to the deepening and intensification of societal conflicts by supporting one party at the expense of the other.

A paper published in 1998 in the American magazine "International Security" noted the existence of links between scarcity of resources, societal conflicts, and national elites in Kenya, where the regime of former President Daniel arap Moi worked in the early 1990s to distort efforts calling for democratic transformation by organizing ethnic violence between... Pastoral groups and farmers from other ethnic groups who have moved to traditional pastoral lands, exploiting grievances related to the sharp decline in the area of ​​arable land.

The African continent contains 37% of the world’s Bedouins (Associated Press)

Climate change and other things

Despite some researchers' skepticism about the direct link between climate change and conflicts, many studies in recent years have monitored how the repercussions of this change affect the scene of the violence industry, as its interaction appears clear with other factors linked to the chronic dilemmas and structural imbalances that the countries of the African continent suffer from.

Many African countries suffer from a combination of problems that range from limited or unequal access to natural resources, societal tensions on various grounds, poverty and economic inequality. The weak ability of state institutions to extend security in its broad sense to citizens, along with political and administrative corruption, has led to To ineffective governance, undemocratic practices, lack of confidence in state authority and legitimacy, and rebellions.

All of the above led to the state’s inability to develop appropriate plans and strategies to adapt to climate change and provide basic tools for citizens to overcome its severe repercussions, which creates a fertile environment for turning it into a catalyst for resorting to violence.

While climate change-induced migration alone may not explain the outbreak of conflict in one region or another, its combination with irrational governance, institutional corruption, security fragility, and societal tensions makes it an effective component within this conflict-generating mix.

Source: Al Jazeera