The IMF expects the war in Gaza to continue with high intensity during the first quarter of 2024 (Al Jazeera)

Estimates issued by the International Monetary Fund indicated a decline in real GDP growth in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to about negative 6% in 2023, a decrease of 9 percentage points from the previous forecast issued last October.

According to the International Monetary Fund - which based its expectations on the fact that the war in Gaza will continue with high intensity during the first quarter of 2024, with a gradual decline in the intensity of the fighting after that - estimates indicate that the chances of the economy contracting in 2024 are great, unless an immediate and complete cessation occurs. To fight with the reconstruction efforts.

“We expect the economy to continue to decline in 2024 if there is not a complete and rapid cessation of fighting and reconstruction,” said Jihad Azour, director of the Fund’s Middle East and Central Asia Department.

The Fund added that if the conflict gradually declines, positive growth is expected to resume gradually as inflation declines.

The Israeli war on Gaza, and the aggressive measures it is taking in the West Bank, have caused major destruction at the level of the Palestinian economy in Gaza, in addition to major paralysis in the West Bank economy, with workers being prevented from working inside and cities being dismembered, hindering the movement of trade, which affects the paths of trade. Internal and external trade as well as on employees’ access to work, according to a paper presented by the Palestinian Economic Policy Research Institute (MAS).

The poverty rate in Palestine has worsened, as the United Nations Development Program estimates that it will increase to 35.8%, compared to 26.7% before the aggression.

The paper showed that the Palestinian economy is facing severe shocks to the level of unemployment and basic income, as the International Labor Organization estimates a 61% decline in employment in the Gaza Strip and a 24% decline in the West Bank, with 182,000 currently unemployed in the Strip, offset by the loss of 208,000 workers. Their jobs are in the West Bank, largely due to the end of job opportunities in Israel and the settlements.

Source: Al Jazeera + Reuters