Leaders of far-right parties in Europe, with Marine Le Pen in the middle, in a group photo during a meeting in Germany (Reuters)

The meeting of the far-right Alternative for Germany party with its Austrian counterpart, the Identity Party, neo-Nazis, and businessmen in Potsdam in November 2023, and discussing ways to activate “reverse migration” and expel hundreds of thousands of immigrants and refugees, was only the tip of the iceberg.

Most of the European far right adopts in some way the same theses, secretly and publicly, while central European governments that identify with the right seek to implement a zero asylum policy. The European far right is counting on gaining more political influence in the 2024 elections to achieve additional political breakthroughs and implement its strategies in this context.

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Many indicators show that the year 2024 will be decisive in the European far right gaining new political spaces in parliaments and local councils, especially the European Parliament. Right-wing parties and groups, both extremist and conservative, benefited from internal and external crises to deepen their presence and role in the European political scene and raise their ambitions.

Parliamentary elections will be held in some European countries this year, as well as the European Parliament, from June 6 to 9 next. Opinion polls confirm that far-right parties have remarkably strengthened their power in 12 EU countries, with indications of the possibility of increasing their influence in determining general European policies and passing their agendas.

Since the 2019 elections, the far right and its various blocs have won about 130 seats (out of 705) in the European Parliament, and analysts and observers expect that it will win 180 seats in the June elections, meaning that it will occupy approximately a quarter of the seats.

Clear preliminaries for this appear, evident in the results of the Dutch and German local elections in 2023, and the passage of the new immigration law in France, which was achieved through the support of the majority of the extremist National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen in an implicit alliance with the ruling “Ennahda” party led by President Emmanuel Macron.

Representatives from the Alternative for Germany party during a session in the Bundestag (Getty)

European extremism and the return to the roots

December 7, 2022 was shocking and unprecedented in European history over the past few decades, when 25 members of the far-right “Reich Citizens” group were arrested on charges of planning an attack on the German Parliament and preparing to overthrow the state.

This group with a Nazi approach adopts crude racist proposals and ideas, rejects the system and the constitution, and does not recognize the institutions of the modern German state that were established after the collapse of Nazism in 1945.

Since the end of World War II, and its adoption of liberal democracy, political pluralism, and alternation of power, (Western) Europe has abandoned the logic of coups, individual rule, and anarchic tendencies, but the emergence of “citizens of the Reich” indicates a state of decline in one of the most important strongholds of European social liberalism. Members of the Alternative for Germany party, which is strongly hostile to immigrants and calls for secession from the European Union, were involved in this move. Evidence of the emergence of extremist racist thought from the margins to publicity and political effectiveness.

The popularity of this Alternative Party, which was ostracized years ago, has increased, and it now has a supportive bloc in the Federal Parliament (Bundestag) of 79 members (out of 736). It is considered the third largest party in the Bundestag. It also achieved resounding success in local elections, which made it a candidate. Strong in the federal elections in 2025, despite subsequent electoral setbacks and massive demonstrations that took place against it and demanded its dissolution.

Analysts point out that the programs of the European right-wing parties are similar, and they are part of the changes taking place in all European societies. These parties thrive on the economic and security crises and the increasing waves of immigration and asylum, and present themselves as guardians of Western culture and the identity of the European peoples in a situation that is shifting towards chauvinism.

Since the global economic crisis in 2008, the path of growing right-wing presence in Europe began and was perpetuated by the Corona epidemic crisis, as governments resorted to adopting policies of closure and austerity, and the Russia-Ukraine war came when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians flowed, especially to the neighboring countries (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania); This caused economic problems for these countries, which right-wing parties exploited to attract the votes of the affected middle class.

With the decline of the “era of plenty and prosperity” in Europe, unemployment rates rising, and the increasing flow of migrants and refugees from hotbeds of tension and conflict, a suitable ground was formed for the growth of a right-wing, populist discourse that is against government policies, against foreigners, and sometimes against the European Union as a whole.

The extreme right uses the issue of immigration and asylum as a peg to justify all problems and defend national and national identity, which has led to the growth of nationalism and racist rhetoric in recent years, as opinion polls show.

These approaches - which place the causes of the crises on the other, the immigrant and the refugee - found a remarkable popular resonance, and led far-right parties to achieve unprecedented electoral victories in the bastions of democracy and social liberalism, such as Italy, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, and Spain.

The leftist French leader and head of the Proud France party, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, confirms this rise by saying:

Today, the extreme right is approaching power in all parts of Europe. The slope has begun, and all European countries will inevitably fall from it, as happened in Italy, and Ms. Meloni is the best example of that.

By Jean-Luc Mélenchon

The extreme right in Italy, with its anti-immigrant project and even the European Union, had achieved a major victory by electing Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the “Fratelli d’Italia” (Brothers of Italy) party, as head of the Italian government in October 2022, but Meloni retreated “tactically,” as observers believe, when It expressed its desire to comply with European rules and procedures in order to benefit from a European recovery plan worth about 200 billion euros.

Surprisingly, the coalition of right-wing parties in Italy won 44.2% of the voters’ votes in the elections of September 25, 2022, including 26.2% for the “Brothers of Italy” party, 8.2% for the “League” party led by Matteo Salvini, and 8% for the “Forza Italia” party ( Long Live Italy) led by the late former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

Similar to this Italian alliance, experts warn that the far right is on the cusp of gaining power in other countries, including France. Former French President François Hollande said, in an interview with the French newspaper Le Parisien: “The real threat comes from the extreme right, and under Macron’s administration of the country, this right will inevitably rule the country, sooner or later... to be the only option that has not been made.” The French are trying it.”

Extremist politician Geert Wilders achieved a major and unprecedented breakthrough in the Dutch political scene (French)

Rising indicators

In the Dutch elections that took place in November 2023, the right-wing Freedom Party, led by extremist politician Geert Wilders, won 37 seats in Parliament (out of 150 seats), far outperforming the left-wing coalition. The party’s electoral program revolved mainly around anti-immigrants, especially Muslims.

The party believes that reducing the flow of immigration and asylum will lead to a reduction in the Islamization of the Netherlands, and calls for banning Islamic schools and mosques, and banning the wearing of the Islamic hijab in government institutions. It also calls for freezing asylum, restricting immigration, and withdrawing from European Union immigration and asylum laws. Despite the recent declines, extremist ideology remains strongly present in the approach of Wilders and his party.

The extreme right in Spain - which has been ruled by the social left for decades - did not have any significant presence, but it began to record a remarkable rise, represented by the “Vox” party, which became the third party in Parliament following the July 2023 elections with 33 deputies (out of 350). It governs 10 major cities after allying itself with the conservative right-wing Popular Party, which won 136 seats. However, this coalition was unable to form a government.

In France, the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, obtained 18.7% of the voters’ votes in the 2022 elections, and now has a strong parliamentary bloc, while Le Pen received 41.4% of the voters’ votes in the second round of the presidential elections. Polls suggest that Le Pen will outperform Macron in the upcoming elections.

As for Sweden, the far-right Sweden Democrats party won 73 seats, and the bloc in which it shares with the liberal conservative right won the elections by 51% and 176 seats, compared to 173 seats for the center-right parties and the Green Party, out of 349 parliamentary seats.

In Hungary, the Fidesz party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, obtained 59% in the April 2022 elections, which is its fourth consecutive victory since 2010, and the party, along with an alliance of right-wing parties, was able to obtain an absolute majority in the parliament consisting of 199 seats.

Demonstrators in Berlin against the Alternative for Germany party after news leaked about the Rotram meeting (Getty)

In Denmark, the “Social Democratic Party” won the legislative elections in November 2022, but this party, with its leftist history, tended to adopt the ideas of the extreme right represented by the “Danish People’s Party” in order to achieve electoral success.

In Poland, in the October 2019 elections, the Law and Justice Party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, obtained a narrow majority in Parliament, at 51%, and won 235 seats out of 460 in Parliament, to rule the country, but it declined in the 2023 elections, obtaining about 35 votes. % of votes only.

In Portugal, the representation of the far-right Chega party led by Andre Ventura increased to 12 deputies in Parliament (out of 230) after obtaining 8.3% of the votes in the January 2022 elections, after it was represented by one representative following the 2019 elections. It has thus become the third political force in the country, and its share is expected to increase in the early elections in March 2024.

In Czechia, the “Freedom and Direct Democracy” party, known for its hostility to immigrants and Muslims among them, received about 10% of the voters’ votes in the January 2021 elections, winning 20 seats (out of 200) in Parliament, while the “Alliance for the Union of Romanians” party won “The populist group, which was founded in 2019, won 44 seats in the Romanian Parliament (out of 329 seats) in the 2020 elections.

In Slovakia, the “Smir SD” party led by Robert Fico, known for its hostility to immigrants and refugees and its criticism of the European Union and NATO, obtained 23% of the voters’ votes in the October 2023 elections and became prime minister. Fico is considered very close to the ideas of Hungarian President Viktor. Orban follows the same policy at home and abroad.

In the April 2023 elections in Finland, the right-wing populist party, the anti-immigration Party of the Finns (PS), won 20% of the votes and 46 seats in the 200-seat parliament, up from 39 seats it won in the 2019 elections, becoming the second party. In Parliament.

As for Austria, where the right suffered a setback as a result of what was known as the “Ibiza Scandal,” the “Freedom” Party, led by Herbert Kickl, returned to lead voting intentions in the 2024 legislative elections, according to the latest opinion polls, with 29% of the votes.

In Belgium, estimates indicate the rise of the "Vlaams Belang" (Flemish Interest) party in Belgium after it had retreated to the margins. The votes obtained by the party in the 2019 elections increased by three times compared to 2014, and it is expected that the share of this party and the far-right parties, including the “Flemish Nationalist Party” and the “Pegida” movement, will increase in the elections to renew the five regional parliaments on the fifth of next June. .

In Greece, in the parliamentary elections that took place in June 2023, the far-right parties obtained 34 seats out of the total of 300 parliamentary seats, while Greece is governed by the center-right “New Democracy” party, which in turn takes a hard-line position on immigration and asylum issues closer to the right. .

Estimates suggest that the far right will obtain about 180 seats in the European Parliament in the June elections (Al Jazeera)

The new scene: go right

These numbers show that the European far right, which was considered merely marginal movements labeled as extremists, is gaining popular ground, benefiting from the economic concerns of voters and the middle class most affected by the economic repercussions. There are clear indications that the left and center parties - mostly ruling - are also becoming It moves to the right, and approaches the agenda of extremist parties or allies with them, especially on issues related to Muslim communities, asylum, and immigration, which are the main concern of the extreme right.

Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally party in France, praised the new immigration bill in France, which was passed in agreement with Macron's centrist Ennahda party, and described it as an "undeniable ideological victory," referring to her party and the movement. Rightist.

Before that, in October 2020, President Macron identified closely with the program of the National Rally party led by Le Pen, when he indicated that French Muslims could form a “counter or parallel society” that should be addressed in France.

It was also noteworthy that the Finnish "National Coalition" party allied with the far-right "Finns" party, instead of the center-left Social Democratic Party, to form a coalition government, thus siding with extremist proposals, which is what Denmark did when it passed a law aiming to deport asylum seekers to other countries. Including Rwanda, inspired by the ideas of the extreme right, and Britain had adopted this proposal before it.

Georgia Meloni was led by an alliance of extreme right-wing and conservative parties to head the Italian government (Reuters)

On the other hand, the hard right in Europe abandoned its most controversial slogans in its political programs, including exiting the European Union, in an attempt to get closer to voters and to the centrist parties, which enabled it to penetrate the ruling parties and bring it closer to power. These are retreats or reviews that analysts see as “tactical” and serve his interests in the long term.

The European extreme right is also swelling, taking advantage of divisions in the unified European decision, especially in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the economic crisis, especially the issue of Russian gas and energy supplies, European governments resorting to individual solutions, the failure to agree on a unified European army, and dividing the burdens of Ukrainian refugees.

Analysts point out that Poland's new pro-European Union government insists on the need for Germany to pay compensation worth 1.3 trillion euros (about 4 trillion dollars) for the period of Nazi occupation during World War II, which is the same thing proposed by the populist Law and Justice Party before it left power. This indicates the beginning of a crack in the structure of the European Union.

All of these variables introduced doubts into European political unity, and right-wing parties exploited these conditions, which were accompanied by popular discontent resulting from a significant rise in the cost of living, increased unemployment rates, and a decline in social security, to consolidate their presence, which is mainly based on populist nationalist tendencies.

At the same time, the European far-right camp does not appear united enough to achieve decisive superiority in the European Parliament elections in June, as part of it is lining up behind the “Identity and Democracy” group, which is led by the (French) “National Rally” led by Marine Le Pen and includes the “League "North" led by Matteo Salvini (Italy), the "AfD", the "Basic Finns" party, the Austrian "Freedom" party and the Belgian "Vlaams Belang". The "Identity and Democracy" bloc is currently the fifth force in the European Parliament, and includes 66 deputies.

As for the "European Conservatives and Reformists" bloc, it includes the Polish "PiS" party, the "Sweden Democrats", the "Fratelli d'Italia" party (Brothers of Italy), and the Spanish "Vox" party. The bloc includes 62 deputies, including members not affiliated with the party.

Expectations reinforced by polls indicate the possibility of the “Identity and Democracy” group in the European Union winning 87 seats in the European Parliament, and the European Conservatives and Reformists bloc winning at least 82 seats.

It is expected that the European Parliament will also be strengthened by new far-right parties such as the “Alliance for the Union of Romanians” (40 seats in the Romanian Parliament), the Portuguese Chiga, the Slovak “National Party” and the French “Recovery” Party led by Eric Zemmour, who competes in extremism with Marine Le Pen.

In this context, Stefan Sigourney, head of the “Renewal” group in the European Parliament, told Reuters: “There will be a moment of political reshaping of the European scene in 2024.” He also emphasizes the dangers resulting from the political and popular expansion of the extreme right by saying:

“With the rise of far-right populists almost everywhere in Europe, we risk an ungovernable Europe.”

By Stephen Sigourney

Sigourney anticipates the difficulty of forming a majority in the European Parliament from the center party blocs, and the possibility of resorting to arrangements and alliances with the extreme right.

Observers believe that the extreme right is unlikely to gain a bloc that would enable it to have final decision-making power in the European Parliament - which is essentially an advisory institution - in the 2024 elections, but according to estimates and polls, it will become a pivotal player in European public policies.

At the local level, populist parties and movements are advancing rapidly towards power in several European countries, benefiting from geopolitical variables, chronic and urgent rifts in the European body, and regional and global social and economic crises that do not seem to be resolved soon. Migrants and refugees will remain the far-right's bet and main card.

Source: Al Jazeera + agencies