Burns: The decisive test for espionage is successful prediction (Al Jazeera)
The American magazine "Foreign Affairs" published a long article by the Director of the CIA, William Burns, in which he talks about the function of intelligence, its development, and what it should be in the current era, while highlighting some of his opinions on the most important issues in the world currently.
Burns began his article by saying that as long as countries keep secrets from each other, they have tried to steal them from each other. Espionage was and will remain an integral part of the art of government, even as its techniques constantly develop.
He pointed out that the crucial test of espionage is successful anticipation and helping policymakers smoothly navigate the profound transformations in the international scene during pivotal moments that come only a few times every century.
A pivotal moment
He said that America today faces one of those rare moments, such as the dawn of the Cold War or the period after the attacks of September 11, 2001, when the rise of China and Russian retaliation pose daunting geopolitical challenges in a world of intense strategic competition, where the United States no longer has the power it once had. It has no rival, and existential climate threats are escalating.
He added that now is a time of historic challenges for the CIA and the entire intelligence profession, with geopolitical and technological shifts posing a greater test than has ever been faced before. It will require adapting to a world in which only safe prediction will accelerate.
To complicate matters, Burns adds, there is the emergence of a revolution in technology that is more comprehensive than the industrial revolution or the beginning of the nuclear age. From microchips to artificial intelligence to quantum computing, emerging technologies are changing the world, including the profession of espionage. In many ways, these developments make the CIA's mission harder than ever, “giving adversaries powerful new tools to confuse, evade, and spy on us.”
Blending emerging technologies with human skills
However, the CIA director says, as much as the world changes, espionage remains an interaction between humans and technology, and there will still be secrets that only humans can collect and secret operations that only humans can perform. For the intelligence service to be effective in the 21st century, the CIA must blend mastery of emerging technologies with the grassroots skills and individual boldness that have always been at the heart of the espionage profession.
Intelligence diplomacy
Then the American official talks about what the agency does with the intelligence it collects, saying that that is changing as well. “Strategic declassification,” the deliberate public disclosure of certain secrets to undermine rivals and rally allies, has become a more powerful tool for policymakers. The intelligence community is also learning the increasing value of intelligence diplomacy, and gaining a new understanding of how to help policymakers support allies and confront adversaries.
Burns then went on to talk about the most important current global issues, and began by saying that the post-Cold War era had come to its complete end the moment Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
A tragic determination to control Ukraine
He claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin currently embodies insecurity, and that his tragic and brutal insistence on controlling Ukraine has brought shame to Russia, exposing its weaknesses, from its one-dimensional economy to its bloated military prowess to its corrupt political system, and driving the Ukrainian people to an incredible resolve and determination to break free. In addition to dragging Russia into a position of economic dependency on China, it also pushed NATO to grow larger and stronger.
He expected that this year would be difficult in the Ukraine war, and may be a test for staying in power. The challenge facing Ukraine is to break through “Putin’s arrogance” and show the high cost that Russia bears from the continuation of the conflict, not only by making progress on the front lines, but also By launching deeper strikes behind it and making steady gains in the Black Sea.
He predicted that Putin would once again engage in nuclear saber-rattling, saying it would be foolish for Ukraine to completely dismiss escalatory risks, but it would also be foolish for it to submit to intimidation.
The key to success is continued aid to Ukraine
Burns said that the key to success lies in maintaining Western aid to Ukraine, adding that this aid for America is a relatively low-cost investment with significant geopolitical returns for it and noticeable returns for American industry, adding that the United States’ withdrawal from the conflict at “this critical moment” and cutting off support for Ukraine. It will have negative historical consequences.
The second issue that the writer talked about is China’s competition with his country, describing Beijing as the only competitor who has the intention to reshape the international system and has the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do so.
He said that in the intelligence profession, they carefully study what leaders say, but they pay more attention to what they do inside and outside their countries. For Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has described himself as inclined to see the United States as a fading power, the strong American support for Ukraine was certainly surprising.
Burns added that the United States' willingness to inflict economic pain on Putin strongly contradicts Beijing's belief that America was in a state of terminal decline, adding that one of the surest ways for China to adhere to its perceptions of American decline and inflame Chinese aggression is for Washington to abandon support for Ukraine, noting that support Ukraine's continued materialization does not come at the expense of Taiwan; it sends an important message about US resolve to help Taiwan.
The danger of relying on one country
Burns said that the most important lessons they learned from the (Covid-19) pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine is that relying on one country for urgent medical supplies and energy is dangerous in today’s world. The best response to these risks is to diversify sensibly, secure US supply chains, protect its technological superiority, and invest in its industrial capacity.
He continued to talk about the risks facing his country, saying that in this volatile and divided world, the weight of “medium-power powers” is increasing, especially in the global south, which is increasingly determined to diversify its relations to maximize its options, adding that the countries of the south believe that adhering to unilateral geopolitical relations with the United States or China, with little benefit and many risks, is likely to attract more countries to embrace open, or at least “complex” geopolitical relations, and therefore Washington must be attentive to the rivalries between the growing number of middle powers, which have historically helped provoke clashes between the powers. Grand.
Hamas attack
He said that the crisis precipitated by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) attack on Israel last October is a painful reminder of the complexity of the choices that the Middle East continues to present to the United States. Competition with China will remain a top priority for Washington, but this does not mean that it can evade other challenges. This only means that the United States must navigate with caution and discipline, avoid overreach, and use its influence wisely.
He added that the Middle East is currently more intertwined or explosive than ever before, and that ending the intensive Israeli ground operation in the Gaza Strip, meeting the deep humanitarian needs of suffering Palestinian civilians, freeing detainees, preventing the spread of the conflict to other fronts in the region, and forming a practical approach to " The Next Day” in Gaza, all very difficult problems.
Xi Jinping tends to see the United States as a vanishing power (French)
He stressed that reviving hope for a lasting peace that guarantees the security of Israel, as well as establishing a Palestinian state, and benefiting from the historical opportunities for normalization with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, are things whose possibilities are difficult to imagine amid the current crisis, but it is difficult to imagine getting out of the crisis without seriously pursuing it.
Knowing the intentions of leaders is becoming more difficult
Burns said that the key to the security of Israel - and the region - is dealing with Iran over its nuclear program, enabling Russian aggression, and curbing the Houthis, adding that the United States is not exclusively responsible for solving any of the disturbing problems of the Middle East, but none of them can be managed, let alone solved, without Active American leadership.
He added that the new landscape in the world represents for the US Central Intelligence Agency, which focuses on human intelligence, amid a world in which the United States’ two main rivals - China and Russia - “operate tyrannically within small circles of advisors,” insight into the intentions of leaders has become more and more important. more difficult than ever.
Burns said that just as September 11, 2001, heralded a new era for the CIA, as did Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he is extremely proud of the work the agency and its intelligence partners did to help the president and senior American policymakers - especially the Ukrainians themselves - thwart Putin.
A recruiting opportunity they won't let go to waste
Beneath the thick surface of Russian government propaganda and repression and an undercurrent of discontent lie a once-in-a-generation recruiting opportunity for the CIA, Burns continued, and they won't let it go to waste.
While Russia may pose the most pressing challenge, Burns says, China is the greater long-term threat, and over the past two years the CIA has reorganized itself to reflect this priority.
The CIA director spoke in detail about their preparations to confront China, and also said that while China and Russia consume much of their attention, they cannot neglect other challenges, from combating “terrorism” to regional instability, and fighting the “fentanyl invasion.” It is a synthetic opioid that kills tens of thousands of Americans every year.
There are familiar regional challenges, Burns adds, looming on the horizon, not only in places that have long been considered strategically important, such as North Korea and the South China Sea, but also in parts of the world whose geopolitical importance will only grow in the coming years, such as Latin America and Africa.
New historic opportunities for agency analysts
He went on to say that the revolution in artificial intelligence, and the torrent of open source information coupled with what they are secretly collecting, is creating historic new opportunities for CIA analysts, and that they are working to develop new AI tools to help digest all that material faster and more efficiently, freeing up officers to focus on What they do best, and that AI will not replace human analysts, but it is already starting to empower them.
He said that, sometimes, it is more appropriate for intelligence officers to deal with historical enemies in situations where diplomatic contact might indicate formal recognition, which is why they reached out to the Afghan Taliban, and that sometimes, the agency's relationships in complex parts of the world can provide possibilities. process, as is the case in the ongoing negotiations with Egypt, Israel, Qatar, and Hamas regarding a humanitarian ceasefire and the release of hostages from Gaza. Sometimes, such relations can remove weight in relations full of political ups and downs, and at other times, intelligence diplomacy can To encourage a convergence of interests and quietly support the efforts of American diplomats and policymakers.
Source: Foreign Affairs