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Pro-Russian poster at a demonstration in Burkina-Faso in January 2023
Photo: Olympia de Maismont / AFP
It was a crash in slow motion: in the past three years there have been coups in the three Sahel countries of Mali, Burkina-Faso and Niger; Military governments took power. The former colonial power France became increasingly openly hostile, and at the same time demonstrators waved Russian flags.
The West African community of states Ecowas tried to exert its power, imposed sanctions, suspended the membership of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, and even threatened the latter with military intervention.
None of this helped, the dispute continued to escalate: Now the three Sahel countries have announced that they will leave the community of states. Security expert Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim from the International Crisis Group explains what this means for the world and for Europe.
SPIEGEL:
Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali have announced their withdrawal from Ecowas. How do you classify that?
Ibrahim:
I would speak of a political earthquake. The move is not entirely unexpected, but it is a momentous decision.
SPIEGEL:
What does this decision mean for Africa?
Ibrahim:
Division. Ecowas has long been
the
model for regional integration on the continent. It is relatively well organized and is considered a success story. As a citizen of Niger, I also have an Ecowas passport. We have freedom of movement like in the EU, there are no visas. If the three countries' withdrawal goes through, we will suddenly no longer be able to travel freely. People are dependent on cross-border traffic and trade.
This move will have a major economic impact, significantly change people's lives and weaken Ecowas.
SPIEGEL:
And what would that mean for the West, for Europe?
Ibrahim:
This is definitely bad news. The three countries have already steadily scaled back their relations with the West, starting with France. They have expelled French military officers and diplomats from the country. Further steps of this kind could follow. At the same time, they have intensified relations with Russia, but also with Iran. The decision to leave Ecowas is another step to anger the West.
SPIEGEL:
Before the coup, Niger in particular was a very close partner of the European Union; among other things, they stopped migrants from African countries on their way to Europe.
Ibrahim:
Niger has now suspended one of the mechanisms that was supposed to slow down migration to Europe. This was just one of the junta's moves against the West, and more are in the pipeline. They have already kicked out French troops and some citizens. Other countries such as Italy, Germany, Belgium and the United States still have military cooperation and have troops stationed in Niger. But the junta is making it clear that it also wants to renegotiate these contracts. It can be heard behind closed doors that she wants to call on all countries to withdraw their foreign troops.
SPIEGEL:
Will more Russian troops come instead?
Ibrahim:
This is already the case in Mali, where Russian military trainers and Wagner people, or their successors, are on site. There are Russian troops in Burkina Faso. Niger has also announced military cooperation with Russia. Although the juntas have not yet decided to request larger numbers of Russian soldiers, there are numerous military experts on site in the Sahel who are working with local armies.
SPIEGEL:
Didn't the death of Wagner boss Prigozhin and the official dissolution of the mercenary force slow down Russia's military commitment?
Ibrahim:
Not really, it had little impact on the ground. The Russian deputy defense minister has apparently taken control of the Wagner operations. He is now responsible for relations with the Sahel countries. The exchange is now taking place much more directly with the Russian government itself.
SPIEGEL:
How will Russia react to the three countries' Ecowas exit?
Ibrahim:
The situation is also difficult for Russia; I'm assuming a rather cautious answer. Yes, Moscow is a strong supporter of the breakaway juntas. At the same time, it is also trying to strengthen its relations with the rest of Africa. It does not want to antagonize the remaining Ecowas countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Senegal. Russia has been playing this game for a while, always saying that it supports a negotiated solution between the organization and the breakaway states. So very diplomatic words that don't mean much. Nevertheless, it is clear that Russia benefits when African countries break away from Western-oriented alliances and move closer to Russia. This is of course in Moscow's interests.
SPIEGEL:
The West primarily blames pro-Russian propaganda for the anti-Western sentiment in the Sahel region. Is that correct?
Ibrahim:
The West is trying as best it can to contain the Russian narrative and to counter the disinformation with its own information campaigns
.
But he doesn't get through to the local actors. Russia is winning the battle for influence and is clearly perceived locally as a better partner. You can see this in public discourse, and also in social media.
SPIEGEL:
What mistakes has the West made?
Ibrahim:
You tried to provide military support in the fight against terrorist groups - without any real success. This perceived failure and the high number of civilian casualties have contributed to the great discontent of the population.
And the West is suffering greatly from the rejection of the former colonial power France in the Sahel region. People are angry with France first of all, not necessarily with the entire West. France has a long history of colonialism, interference in the internal affairs of these countries. It established economic relationships that people still consider unfair today.
SPIEGEL:
On social media, junta leaders like Ibrahim Traoré are celebrated as freedom fighters.
Ibrahim:
This is part of the disinformation discourse. They are celebrated as heroes for driving France out of their countries. This is very welcomed by parts of the local population, even if their lives have not necessarily become better as a result. Still, most people I've spoken to believe that such toughness toward France is the right thing to do.
SPIEGEL:
Why do the three juntas want to leave Ecowas now? To prove this toughness?
Ibrahim:
They prove that they can make decisions independently without anyone telling them off. Ecowas has criticized the military governments, imposed sanctions and called for power to be returned to a civilian government. Therefore, the three countries are now breaking off relations with the international community. You don’t want any more external pressure. The juntas also want to accommodate the radical wing of their supporters, which has called for such an exit. The move was already being celebrated on the streets of Niger's capital Niamey on Sunday.
SPIEGEL:
When the coup took place in Niger last year, Ecowas even threatened the country with military intervention, but in the end nothing happened.
Ibrahim:
The juntas are benefiting from Ecowas' weakness. The international community is quite divided, even before the announced withdrawal of the three countries. And the juntas took advantage of this to discredit the organization.
SPIEGEL:
How should the West deal with the juntas now? Continue to talk in the hope that the collaboration doesn't break off completely?
Ibrahim:
I'm really having a hard time with this question at the moment. So far we have advised not to isolate these countries but to try to continue working with them. I don't know whether this line can still be followed after the announced Ecowas exit. Niger's withdrawal from the migration agreement has already made it clear that the juntas are betting on confrontation. So should the West close its eyes on each of these decisions and continue to cooperate? What would be the price for that? I'm still looking for an answer to these questions myself.
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