Austria's Chancellor is actually considered a passable speaker. However, the key sentence of his keynote speech last Friday was long and somewhat confusing. “It will be a year of decision,” Karl Nehammer shouted to more than 1,500 conservative officials in an exhibition hall in Upper Austria. "Between the person who gets lost in the dark past and prefers to believe in conspiracies, and the decision will be between him and me as Chancellor of Austria, who believes in the future of the country."

What Nehammer, who began his career in the military, wants to say is: Herbert Kickl or me. The evil right-winger versus the good right-wing conservative. The Austrians now have a choice - in the chancellor duel over the future of the republic.

That sounds good, but is factually wrong. Because Nehammer and his conservative ÖVP have been in third place in surveys for many weeks. The Social Democrats, who have recently moved to the left, are ahead of the ÖVP, with Herbert Kickl and his FPÖ in first place. A chancellor duel in Austria is at best between the left and the extreme right.

Nehammer's tactics are clear: he also wants to be part of the race and is now just getting involved. However, he is trying to implement two strategies at the same time, which will get in each other's way, at least in the long term. On the one hand, he demonizes Herbert Kickl. After his speech, Nehammer openly described the FPÖ leader as “right-wing extremist” and ruled out ever working with him. On the other hand, Nehammer hardly differs from Kickl when it comes to crucial questions.

The ÖVP has presented an 82-page “Austria plan”. It is a conservative middle-of-the-road program, peppered with headline-grabbing demands for the right-wing to very right-wing target group: punish supposedly lazy people, reward performance, increase the police force, reduce taxes, ban gender. Hardly any of this can be implemented with the SPÖ and the Greens, and only little with the liberal Neos. In order to implement his election program, Nehammer would need the FPÖ. He has a friend-enemy problem with right-wingers.

Nehammer's decisions now also have an impact that extends beyond his party: If the conservatives stay on course, the FPÖ will have no coalition partner.

The SPÖ, the Greens and the Liberals will not form a coalition with the Freedom Party; all three are credible in this announcement. Kickl's only chance of forming a coalition would be the ÖVP, with whom the FPÖ already works in several federal states. But Nehammer cannot form a coalition after the election with a man he describes as “right-wing extremist.” Kickl's only chance would be for the ÖVP to replace its party leader after the election - although the question then arises as to who in the ÖVP would make the radical FPÖ leader chancellor. The party considers it impossible for the Freedom Party to allow themselves to be put under pressure and banish Kickl to the sidelines in order to become part of a government with someone else at the helm.

The FPÖ's chances of becoming chancellor after the coming election are not particularly good, despite the polls being at a high for months. Of course, a lot can still happen before the election. At the moment it is not even clear when elections will take place in Austria. It is expected to take place in the fall. However, it is still conceivable that the National Council election and the EU election on June 9th could be combined.

Finally, a recommendation: In part two of our “Inside Austria” podcast series about the New Right in Austria, we looked at the movement from the inside. We describe how it is financed. And we show how the rise of the right-wing extremist poster boy Martin Sellner became increasingly difficult at the end of the 1900s - but only temporarily.

Social media moment of the week

On Friday last week, tens of thousands of people took to the streets in Austria against right-wing extremists. In this night photo taken by the police, the demonstrators can be seen in front of the Austrian parliament building in Vienna.

Stories we recommend to you today

  • Nehammer's Kickl-Kick:

    Karl Nehammer wants to make it into the chancellor duel against Herbert Kickl with his "Austria plan". In fact, his ÖVP is in third place in polls. Nehammer presented his master plan in Wels. Can this still be something? 

  • Expert suggests party bans for Austria like in Germany:

    The domestic ban on re-activation is not enough, says constitutional expert Peter Bußjäger. Proceedings are needed against parties that threaten democracy.

  • The right-wing extremist influencers – the followers:

    Listen now: Who supports the “New Right”? And how is it financed? A look inside the “Identitarian Movement”.

  • An election campaign involving class warfare has a problem in Austria:

    the gap between rich and poor is likely to be smaller than some figures suggest. Feelings of injustice arise elsewhere – and benefit the FPÖ rather than the Social Democrats.

I wish you a nice week ahead!

Warm greetings from Vienna

Your Katharina Mittelstaedt, senior editor of DER STANDARD

And once again a note on our own behalf: You can order this briefing as a newsletter in your email inbox here.