American experts believe that the possibility of attacks was very real (Associated Press)

Washington

- American circles were surprised by the death of 3 soldiers and the injury of 40 others in a drone attack on the “Burj 22” base in the far north-east of Jordan last Sunday.

Reports indicated that the timing of the attack came suddenly while most of the base's personnel were sleeping, and without any prior warning, as the arrival of the attacking aircraft coincided with the return of an American drone from a surveillance mission, and as a result the air defense system was shut down.

A US military official said on Monday that the United States has not yet found evidence that Iran directed Sunday's attack in Jordan, but Tehran provides weapons, training and funding to groups attacking US forces from Iraq or Syria.

John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council at the White House, also stressed that "it is clear that there is a responsibility that must be placed on Iranian officials."

US officials said they used back channels to inform Iran and its proxies that attacks on US forces must stop. However, these efforts appear to have done little to prevent the attacks, and officials inside the White House have long feared that one of the attacks could eventually lead to deaths.

At a time when the voices of many Republican Party leaders have risen, calling on US President Joe Biden to take revenge and the necessity of launching attacks inside Iran, others are wondering whether these attacks reflect a new American intelligence failure.

A circulating picture of missiles said to be Iranian near the American base in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor (social networking sites)

"Not an achievement"

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Jonathan Acuff, professor at the Department of Intelligence and National Security Studies at Carolina University, said, "The Jordanian attack does not reflect an intelligence failure. There have been more than 150 attacks on American forces in the region since the October 7 attack on Israel."

Akov accused factions close to Iran "of engaging in an intermittent series of these attacks, as long as there are American forces in the region." He considered that “it is no secret that the American intelligence services were well aware of the capabilities of these “militias,” as he described them.

He said, "If militias and terrorists attack targets 150 times, this increases the possibility of a single attack leading to American casualties, and this is what actually happened."

Professor Joseph Vitsanakis, an expert in intelligence and security affairs at Coastal Carolina University, agreed with the previous proposition. He stressed that "the killing of the three American soldiers in Jordan the day before yesterday was not an intelligence failure; rather, there have been daily attacks on American military bases in Iraq and Syria since early last October, so the possibility of deaths was always expected and indeed expected."

Biden's options

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Professor Vitsanakis said, “President Biden had previously been told in the daily intelligence briefing, even before October 7, 2023, that casualties among American forces deployed in the Middle East were almost certain. From here, President Biden expected "And the White House has that possibility."

Professor Vitsanakis stated, “The important question now is: Which possible options will President Biden choose? These alternatives range from covert action against Iranian interests in the region, or targeting an Iranian-supported facility abroad (perhaps in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon), all the way to a direct attack.” On Iranian territory.

He warned that the last option is unlikely, as neither Tehran nor Washington wants to get involved in a long confrontation with each other. “However, many wars in history have broken out between two adversaries who had no desire to get involved in a military confrontation.”

He pointed out, "This moment is perhaps the most tense since the killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, in January 2020." The security expert concluded by saying, "Anything could happen in the coming days."

The killing of the three soldiers has complicated the American position with the expansion of the areas of ongoing confrontation in the Gaza Strip, and not being limited to the Israeli aggression against the Strip, at a time when Washington is working, in cooperation with Egypt and Qatar, to push for a new deal that would allow securing the release of Israeli detainees in Gaza. In exchange for a long-term cessation of aggression.

In addition, the tension and confrontations in the southern Red Sea, with the Yemeni Houthi group continuing to threaten maritime navigation, place the Biden administration before a more complex scene, and double the pressure on it to take revenge on Iran and its allies, which represents a failure for it in the eyes of some commentators.

Experts believe that the killing of the three soldiers proved wrong the belief that Washington is successfully managing Iranian threats (Associated Press)

Failure to manage conflict

William Wechsler, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Counterterrorism, and Director of Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council in Washington, said that the Biden administration “failed because it believed it was managing the relationship with Iran and its allies well.”

Wechsler commented on the Jordan attack by saying, “For years, and across multiple administrations, American policymakers have tended to believe that threats from Iran and its proxies and partners are being successfully managed - especially the threats they pose to American forces in the region - and with the killing of the three soldiers, this belief has been proven wrong.” ".

Wechsler criticized the Biden administration, and said, "The United States should have responded more forcefully earlier in the escalation cycle, and it will have to do so now. But Washington must take into account the American strategic goals for the region, and at the same time understand Tehran's goals."

On the other hand, Matthew Whalen, CEO of the American Security Project, a research center specializing in defense affairs, indicated his astonishment at the attacks against American forces in this region of Jordan.

Wallen told Al Jazeera Net, "Attacks have been occurring intermittently for years. However, Jordan is a relatively safe country to be stationed in. With that in mind, the proximity of this particular base to the Iraqi border, and the American base in Al-Tanf, Syria, made it closer to danger, which is what made it so dangerous." "He was not taken seriously by American leaders."

Source: Al Jazeera