Why was Rouhani excluded from running for membership in the Iranian Assembly of Experts?

Hassan Rouhani called on Iranians - in a statement he issued after his exclusion - to participate in the elections (Reuters)

Tehran

- Finally, after many rumors and speculation regarding the eligibility of former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in the elections for the Assembly of Experts - which is responsible for choosing the Supreme Leader and monitoring his work - the Guardian Council - with the announcement of the results of applicants for nomination for the sixth round of elections for the Assembly of Experts - put a stamp of rejection. Red on Rouhani's eligibility file.

It is the same red seal that was previously placed on the file of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, former Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, and Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the leader and guide of the 1979 revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini.

Although Hassan Rouhani's disqualification was expected by those close to him and some analysts, it turned into a "political earthquake" in Iranian political circles and became the most important event and sparked many reactions in the left, right, and independent camps.

The Leadership Council of Experts in Iran undertakes the task of choosing the country's supreme leader (Al Jazeera)

Invitation to participate

Meanwhile, some criticized the Guardian Council, which is responsible for approving or rejecting the eligibility of applicants for candidacy in the country's four elections, and believed that with the exclusion of Rouhani, the ruling minority seeks to remove important figures such as Rouhani from the revolution, while conservatives welcomed the decision and considered it wise and correct.

After Rouhani's exclusion, the former president took the same path that Hashemi Rafsanjani once took, and issued a statement in which he called on the people to participate in the elections.

He wrote in his statement, stressing participation in the elections, "With this clear evidence, there is no doubt that the ruling minority officially and publicly wants to reduce the people's participation in the elections. It wants to keep the elections and the Fund away from determining the fate of the people so that it can determine their fate with its decisions."

Rouhani added, "For this reason and until now, we must emphasize the importance of the people's voice and deciding the ballot box, and protest against the plan to abolish the ballot box and remove the republic from the system," stressing that "there is no way to protest except the box."

Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, was excluded years ago from the (European) Assembly of Experts elections.

Choosing your next mentor

In turn, political science professor Sadiq Zibakalam considers the refusal of eligibility to run for election to be entirely political and not related to the past of those applying for nomination, their positions, and their previous role in the structure of the political system, explaining that the system excludes anyone who it deems should not participate in any of the four elections (the Republican presidency and the municipal councils). The Assembly of Experts and Parliament) for any reason.

He continued in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that one of the observations that the Guardian Council may have taken into consideration is the possibility that the Assembly of Experts must choose the next guide in its next session, that is, the next eight years, and in this case it appears that it preferred not to have Hassan Rouhani participate in the important decision.

Zibakalam adds that the Guardian Council wants the next leader to be chosen without differences of opinion, so it supports people from only one movement.

Regarding the impact of this exclusion on the participation rate, it is believed that only supporters of the regime participate in the elections for the Assembly of Experts, so the removal of Hassan Rouhani or his presence on the list of candidates does not affect the participation rate in the elections.

In this context, Zibakalam says that the regime accepts a president of the republic who does not have ideas and actions independent of the regime, and therefore all the previous presidents of the republic faced problems with the regime, and this is not related to party affiliation, but the current president, Ibrahim Raisi, may have a different fate than the previous ones.

He adds that the eight years that Rouhani was President of the Republic showed that he was not completely subordinate and obedient, or as the regime wanted, and therefore the regime saw that it was better for him not to be in the Assembly of Experts in the next eight years so that he would not participate in making the decision to choose the next guide.

Conservative cleric Ahmed Jannati was elected in 2016 as the new president of the Assembly of Experts for a term of 8 years (European)

Rouhani and participation scenarios

For his part, the politician and former mayor of Tehran, Gholam Hossein Karbasji, believes that there is a difference in tastes in Iran, and that there are disagreements that occur between those who hold positions that have the nature of oversight and those who hold executive positions. The executive deems it necessary to take steps that the supervisory side may not understand.

In his interview with Al Jazeera Net, Karbasji said that everyone knows the positions and affiliations of Hassan Rouhani and his academic and political qualifications from before the revolution until now, but during his assumption of the Republican presidency, issues arose in the country and disagreements arose between him and other authorities in the regime, including disagreements with the Guardian Council, and these issues affected On the decision regarding the eligibility of Hassan Rouhani, which led to his rejection, while he was approved for previous elections even though Rouhani did not change from what he was.

He adds that it is possible that the Assembly of Experts will have to choose a new guide in its next session, and this will undoubtedly be reflected in the decisions of the Guardians of the Constitution to accept or reject nomination applicants, as they prefer that the experts choose the next guide without differences of opinion and in a calm environment.

Regarding the impact of the rejection of Rouhani’s candidacy on the participation rate in the elections, the former politician believes that there are several scenarios. The first is that Rouhani’s rejection may reduce the participation rate slightly, as there are people who participate in the elections in order to vote for specific people.

The other scenario - according to Karbasji - is that a large number of reformists usually choose to boycott to show their dissatisfaction and rejection of the regime’s policies, and therefore whether Rouhani is present or not does not affect their participation.

The last scenario - in his belief - is that there is a minority, according to what the polls show, who believe in participating even in the absence of names that they would like to vote for in order to maintain the continuation of the electoral process.

The Supreme Leader of the Revolution, Ali Khamenei, participated in voting in the elections for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts in 2016 (European)

Between welcome and warning

In light of the fundamentalist welcome of the Guardian Council’s decision, the editor-in-chief of Kayhan newspaper, Hossein Shariatmadari, said in an interview with Fars Agency that regardless of the reasons for Rouhani’s exclusion by the Guardian Council, it must be said that his record during his two presidential terms is before the people. It can be an unambiguous criterion for his qualifications.

He continued, "Without mentioning who Rouhani means by the word 'the people', he claims that the people are worried about his disqualification. Large masses of the people were surprised by the support of Rouhani's eligibility for the 2017 elections, that is, the second round of his presidency. These masses complained that, given Rouhani's performance and positions in The first term of the presidency, why did the Guardian Council uphold his eligibility for the second time?

For his part, political analyst Ahmed Zaidabadi believes that there is only one “main issue”, as it appears that the forces allied and close to the Sustainability Front - a party from the conservative fundamentalist movement - have risen to control the institutions of government and become the dominant force and decision-maker in the official political scene. In the country.

Zaidabadi added in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that the Sustainability Front's methods and ideas in running the country are not hidden from anyone, believing that if it succeeds in controlling all corners of the country, there is no doubt that it will make Iranian society "very dangerously unstable."

He believes that the political system must now make its decision, either surrender to it or remove its umbilical cord from it and push it to the margins, considering that this is the main issue in the upcoming March elections, while the rest of the issues are secondary.

Source: Al Jazeera