Towards a large victory for the far right in the general elections in the Netherlands

Europe 1 with AFP 06:31, November 23, 2023

Geert Wilders' far-right Islamophobic Dutch party won Wednesday's parliamentary election in the Netherlands, according to exit polls, an electoral earthquake that is likely to be felt across Europe.

35 seats won out of 150

According to Ipsos, the PVV (Freedom Party) won 35 seats out of 150, a victory considered very comfortable in a particularly fragmented lower house. Frans Timmermans' Left-Green Alliance is second with 25 seats, while the centre-right VVD won 24 seats. Wilders' anti-immigration message seems to have resonated with Dutch voters, but the famously peroxide-haired politician is far from assured of becoming prime minister.

The PVV "can no longer be ignored", he said, calling on the other parties to work together to form a coalition. Before the elections, the leaders of the other three major parties had assured that they would not participate in a government led by the PVV. But on the way out of the polls, the popular Pieter Omtzigt, who also takes a hard line on immigration, said he was "available" to lead the Netherlands while conceding that the process would be "not easy". His New Social Contract (NSC) party, created last summer, is said to have won 20 seats. Timmermans rejected the idea of joining a Wilders coalition from the outset. "The time has come for us to stand up for democracy," he said.

"It's a landslide victory and it sets up a whole new dynamic," Diederick van Wijk of the Clingendael Institute told AFP. The other parties have made a strategic mistake by focusing on immigration, thus playing into the hands of the PVV, he believes.

'Insurmountable' differences over immigration

Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced in July the fall of the government after "insurmountable" differences over immigration. A few days later, he announced his intention to leave politics. Nicknamed the "Teflon" prime minister for his ability to overcome scandals, Rutte has spent more than 13 years at the helm of the Netherlands, a record.

Dilan Yesilgöz, the candidate of Rutte's VVD party, has also taken a firm stance on limiting the number of asylum seekers. The former refugee also caused controversy when she said she was ready to govern with Wilders' party, but later rejected the idea of forming a government in which he would be prime minister.

A 'Dutch Trump'

If confirmed by the final results, Wilders' victory marks a sharp shift to the right that will be greeted with apprehension in Brussels: the PVV has promised a referendum on whether or not the Netherlands should remain in the European Union.

Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban hailed "the winds of change" on X. And French National Rally leader Marine Le Pen congratulated Wilders and his party "for their spectacular performance in the legislative elections, which confirms the growing commitment to defending national identities."

Geert Wilders is sometimes referred to as the "Dutch Trump", with his hairstyle contributing to the comparison, but he actually entered politics long before the former US president. Not hesitating to call Moroccans "scum" or to propose cartoon contests of the Prophet Mohammed, Mr. Wilders has built his career on fighting what he calls an "Islamic invasion" of the West.

Neither his run-ins with the law, which found him guilty of insulting Moroccans, nor the death threats against him, which have kept him under police protection since 2004, have deterred him. More recently, Wilders has tried to calm his populist rhetoric and focus on other voters' concerns.

A xenophobic tone

In addition to immigration, the Dutch are even more worried about "whether they have even more money left in their wallets," he said. He also said he was willing to set aside his views on Islam to govern. But the PVV's manifesto retained its xenophobic tone. It proposes the re-establishment of Dutch border controls, the detention and deportation of illegal immigrants, the return of Syrian asylum seekers and the reintroduction of work permits for intra-EU workers.

When it comes to foreign policy, he defends one approach: "the Netherlands first". As for Islam, the PVV manifesto says: "The Netherlands is not an Islamic country. No schools, no Korans and no mosques." "A very difficult period is beginning for Muslims," Muhsin Köktas of the Contact Organization for Muslims and the Government (CMO) told Dutch news agency ANP.