Arko Minawi and Jibril Ibrahim officially announced their bias to fight against the Rapid Support Forces in Darfur (social media)

Khartoum - The developments of the escalating situation in the Darfur region in western Sudan are likely to lead to more tension and a return to the square of flare, following the announcement of two of the largest armed movements to align themselves with the Sudanese army in its fight against the Rapid Support Forces, after 7 months during which 5 movements committed to neutrality, and did not support either side of the fighting.

Four of the 4 states in the Darfur region, Northern, Southern, Central and West Darfur, witnessed bloody clashes between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, leaving hundreds dead, thousands of civilians fleeing to Chad, and others displaced to distant states.

Bloggers and activists are circulating news that the rapid support has mobilized huge forces to fight battles in North Darfur for control of El Fasher, the fourth state in Darfur, which increases fears of fierce fighting, in light of the concentration of the joint force of armed movements in the same city.

Sudanese Justice and Equality Movement forces led by Bakhit Abdul Karim Dabjo (Al Jazeera)

From neutrality to confrontation

The Justice and Equality Movement, led by Jibril Ibrahim, and the Sudan Liberation Movement, led by Minni Arko Minawi, who is also the governor of the Darfur region, decided on Thursday to leave the neutrality station and confront the Rapid Support Forces, which have taken full control of 3 states in Darfur.

During a press conference held in Port Sudan, Jibril Ibrahim and Minawi attributed the army's bias to targeting civilians and looting property, and talked about foreign hands participating in this fighting, aimed at implementing an agenda aimed at fragmenting and dividing Sudan.

Also participating in the same press conference was the head of the Sudan Liberation Movement, Mustafa Tambour, who had earlier announced joining the fight alongside the army against the RSF and officially participating in the war.

Jibril and Minawi are part of the Joint Force for the Protection of Civilians, which was formed in late April, nearly two weeks after the outbreak of the war, to take on tasks related to securing the flow of aid through land routes and protecting civilians, especially in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state.

Balance of power weighting

The joint force consists of the Justice and Equality Movement led by Jibril Ibrahim, the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Minni Arko Minawi, the Sudan Liberation Forces Gathering led by Tahar Hajar, the Sudanese Alliance led by Khamis Abdullah Abkar, and the Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council led by Hadi Idris, a member of the Sovereignty Council who was relieved of his post by the army chief about two weeks ago, but announced his rejection of the decision.

These forces are estimated at about 5,<> fighters, the fighters of the Minawi movement constitute the dominant force, so the bias of a large part of the army would tip the balance of power in his favor, according to a military source who spoke to Al Jazeera Net.

The joint force has about 100 vehicles, which have been working in the delivery of humanitarian aid and the protection of commercial convoys, and is heavily present in El Fasher, and controls the large market and the livestock market, and has a base in a number of neighborhoods, and is present in estimated numbers in western El Fasher, especially the Zamzam camp for the displaced, and is also responsible for protecting the headquarters of international organizations in the first-class neighborhood in El Fasher.

We decided today to deviate from the position of neutrality that we took collectively at the beginning of the war after it became clear to the far and near that the rapid support and its expatriate mercenaries target the defenseless citizen in himself, his money and his honor, and that the horrible and unprecedented violations committed by these militias against him,

— Gebreil Ibrahim (@GebreilIbrahim1) November 16, 2023

From the point of view of observers, the position of both Jibril and Minawi was not surprising to many, especially since Minawi announced at the end of last May a lack of neutrality towards the protection of civilians, and directed the joint forces in Darfur to use force to protect citizens and commercial markets from looting without waiting for instructions.

It is noteworthy that the governor of the Darfur region of Arko Minawi was among a number of leaders of the armed movements signatories to the Juba Peace Agreement, active in mediating between the army and the rapid support in the early days of the start of battles to stop the military escalation, and on the eighth of last May Minawi left Khartoum to El Fasher and withdrew all his fighters from Khartoum.

Radical change

The spokesman for the Sudanese Justice and Equality Movement, Mohamed Jaber Abdullah, believes that the decision of the armed movements to abandon neutrality will completely change the course of military operations in favor of the armed forces, especially since the Darfur war that erupted in 2003 was one of the reasons for the attack by Arab militias on innocent people and civilians other than Arab tribes, with the support of the government and the army at the time, contrary to the current situation, which has become charged against rapid support with the growing desire to avenge what happened from these militias in the past.

Jaber explains to Al Jazeera Net that the balance of power will tend in favor of the army and movements as well, from the different tactics of battles, where the armed movements depend on the attack in exchange for the delinquency of the army for defensive operations, which gives the battles additional gains, especially since the militias – as he says – are fighting for spoils and gain without driving doctrine.

The leader talks about the great difference created by the Sudanese Justice and Equality Forces, which completed security arrangements and integrated their forces into the government army, where they contributed to the battle plans within the General Command as well as the El Fasher garrison, which makes the joining of other movements capable of radically changing the course of the battles in favor of the army in the coming days.

From the point of view of Sharaf al-Din Mahmoud, a researcher interested in armed movements affairs, "the announcement of some movements to support the army is a late step, and their explicit bias was imposed by two reasons, the first is their confirmation that the RSF attack on the Darfur states aims to end the Juba Peace Agreement," after an analysis of the recent speech of the second commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Abdul Rahim Dagalo, in which he stripped the executive government's right to impose security and secure humanitarian aid, and made it exclusive to his forces.

The second reason, according to Sharaf al-Din, who spoke to Al Jazeera Net, is "the exposure of these movements to criticism and widespread pressure because of their neutrality, despite the crimes and violations committed by the rapid support with the help of mercenaries."

The direct motive for abandoning neutrality – as the same spokesman says – was "attacking the rapid support of citizens in El Geneina in West Darfur on an ethnic and tribal basis, and the deliberate sabotage of the cities of Darfur, especially Nyala and Zalingei, and adds, "These crimes gave moral legitimacy to these movements, in declaring war on the Rapid Support Forces and joining the armed forces."

Statement on the meeting of the commander of the second Rapid Support Forces led by the Joint Force of the Armed Struggle Movements

Within the framework of the rapid support endeavor and keenness to achieve security and stability in the Darfur region, and to show goodwill, and on November 16, 2023, the leaders of the armed struggle movements, represented by Lieutenant General Saleh Osman Jebel Si...

— Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (@RSFSudan) November 16, 2023

Conflict and division

Preceded the decision of the armed movements to align with the army announcement of the Rapid Support Forces agreement with a number of leaders of the same movements on the formation of a joint force to protect civilians and joint coordination, but the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan Liberation Forces Gathering General Abboud Adam Khater denied to the island net reaching an agreement.

"A group of field commanders met with the Rapid Support delegation near Menawashi in South Darfur state on Wednesday, and were surprised by statements about the RSF meeting and the lack of neutrality of the armed movements," Khater said, stressing that they are "committed to neutrality, provided that no war breaks out in the cities of El Fasher and El Daein."

Khater confirmed to Al Jazeera Net that their meeting with the leaders of the Rapid Support discussed the war and displacement in Darfur, and was handed a message to stop the expansion of fighting for two terms, but the Rapid Support refused and stuck to the escalation against the army, and added, "They put us the formation of a joint force, and we did not respond to them, and we asked to return and consult, but they took the initiative to announce the agreement before our arrival."

In a second direction, the situation appeared confused within the Sudan Liberation Forces grouping, after a spokesman for the coalition repudiated the decision to side with the army, stressing that its representative at the press conference, Salah al-Wali, is inexpensive and represents his person, and that they remain neutral towards the fighting.

Al-Wali, who is the political secretary of the coalition, responded by stressing the soundness of the group's position regarding the army's alignment, condemning crimes committed against civilians in Darfur and burying them alive, and that the movement's participation in the decision confirms its political and moral commitment to its people.

Justice and Equality Movement leader Suleiman Sandal criticized the decision of Jibril Ibrahim's group, from which he defected months ago, and considered siding with the army an explicit support for elements of the former regime.

The Rapid Support did not comment on the position of the armed movements biased to the army, as the spokesman for the Rapid Support refused to respond to inquiries Al Jazeera Net on this step.

Source : Al Jazeera