JERUSALEM – At a time when the Israeli political and military levels unanimously agreed on the need to overthrow the rule of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Gaza Strip, and to push for the restoration of the Palestinian Authority to power in the Gaza Strip under regional and international auspices, the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence recommended the occupation of the Gaza Strip and the displacement of Palestinians to Sinai.

The ministry's recommendation came in the context of scenarios of military dealing with the Gaza Strip through war, in order to ensure the future security of Israelis in the south and in the "Gaza envelope." These alternatives were drafted in a 10-page document dated October 13, 2023.

The document, revealed by the website Siha Makumit, contains the logo of the Ministry of Intelligence headed by Minister Gila Gamlil of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, and was presented to the military and security chiefs in Tel Aviv.


Scenarios

The recommendations formulated by the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence revolve around the fifth item of the document, which includes 3 alternatives discussed and examined:

  • Alternative A: Retention of the population in Gaza and restoration of Palestinian Authority rule.
  • Alternative B: Retaining the population in Gaza and establishing local Arab governance.
  • Alternative C: Evacuation of population from Gaza to Sinai.

As for the sixth item of the document, it reviews an in-depth examination of the three alternatives conducted by the Ministry's staff and the conclusions that can be deduced, as item (a) related to alternative (c) related to occupation and displacement, is the alternative that will lead to a positive and long-term strategic outcome for Israel, through the displacement of Palestinian civilians from Gaza as the desired outcome of the war, according to the document.

The authors of the document believe that alternative C, which recommends the reoccupation of Gaza and the displacement of its population to Sinai, can be implemented, but it needs a firm stance by the political level in the face of international pressure, while stressing the need to ensure the support of the United States and other pro-Israel countries.

Item (b) dealt with interpretations of alternatives (a) and (b), which suffer from fundamental flaws, especially with regard to the strategic implications of these alternatives and the long-term feasibility and ineffectiveness.

Document calls for promotion that deportation of Gaza residents is a necessary step that will lead to fewer casualties (Anatolia)

Threats

The two alternatives will not provide the required deterrence, will not bring about a change in consciousness, and could lead over years to the same problems and threats that the State of Israel faced from 2007 until now.

With regard to item (c) concerning alternative (a), which recommends occupation and displacement of Gazans, the conclusions concluded that it carries with it many dangers.

The document acknowledged that the division between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state, and therefore the introduction of the Palestinian Authority into Gaza is the most dangerous of the three alternatives, as it may lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

"It is impossible that the outcome of the surprise attack by Hamas on the seventh of October will be an unprecedented victory for the Palestinian national movement and pave the way for the establishment of a Palestinian state," the document said.

The conclusions estimated that such a victory through reconciliation and the restoration of power in the Gaza Strip would prolong the conflict, cost thousands of Israeli civilians and soldiers in damage, and do not guarantee security for Israel.

Despite the risks inherent in the option of occupation and displacement, the Intelligence Ministry document recommends the implementation of what it described as a "full transfer of all residents of the Gaza Strip to North Sinai" as the preferred option among the three alternatives presented by the document, regarding the future of Palestinians in the Strip after the end of the war.


Stages of the plan

Israel also recommends action to "evacuate the residents of Gaza to Sinai" during the war, by establishing tent cities and new cities in North Sinai that accommodate the Palestinian population who will be displaced from the Strip, and then "establishing a sterile buffer zone for several kilometers inside Egypt, and not allowing Palestinians to return or reside near the Israeli border."

The occupation and displacement plan is divided into several phases:

  • The first phase: Gazans should be evacuated to the south, while the Israeli Air Force strikes will focus on the northern part of the Strip.
  • The second phase will begin the IDF's ground incursion into Gaza, which will lead to the occupation of the entire Strip from north to south, and work on what it described as "clearing underground tunnels and bunkers of Hamas fighters."

At the same time that the Israeli army occupies the Gaza Strip, Gazans will be forcibly moved to Egyptian territory and leave the Strip, and will not be allowed to return to it permanently, as the document states that "it is important to leave the corridors towards the south usable, while allowing the evacuation of the civilian population towards Rafah."

The Ministry of Intelligence proposes to promote a campaign dedicated to Palestinians in Gaza that would "motivate them to agree to the plan and make them give up their land," as stated in the document's recommendations on occupation and displacement.

Gazans on their way to the safer southern parts of the Gaza Strip (Anatolia)

promotion

Regarding the messages included in the campaign to push Gazans to emigrate, the document says, "The messages should revolve around the loss of land, that is, to make it clear that there is no longer hope of returning to the territories that Israel will occupy in the near future, whether this is true or not."

The document also states that the Israeli government should lead a public campaign to promote the "transfer" plan to the Western world, in which the deportation of residents from Gaza would be promoted as a humanly necessary step, as it would result in "fewer casualties among the civilian population than expected unless displacement takes place."

The document claims that the model of Israeli military rule and civilian rule of the Palestinian Authority, as it exists in the West Bank, is expected to fail in Gaza, "There is no way to maintain an effective military occupation in Gaza except on the basis of a military presence and without settlements. In a short time, there will be an internal and international Israeli demand for withdrawal."

The alternative to forming a local Arab leadership to replace Hamas is undesirable, according to the document, because there are no local opposition movements to it, and the new leadership may be more extreme, "The possible scenario is not a change in ideological perception, but the creation of new, and perhaps more extreme, Islamist movements," the document says.

"If the Palestinian population remains in the Strip, there will be many Palestinian deaths during the expected occupation of Gaza, and this will damage Israel's international image even more than the displacement of the population. For all these reasons, the Ministry of Intelligence recommends encouraging the permanent transfer of all Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai."