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Solidarity demonstration for Osman Kavala in Izmir

Photo: Murat Kocabas / SOPA Images / IMAGO

Last week's draconian verdict against human rights activist Osman Kavala is seen as frightening proof of the autocratic path Turkey has taken under Erdoğan's presidency: Kavala faces life imprisonment without parole; four other defendants could face 18 years in prison; the case is in the context of the mass protests in Istanbul's Gezi Park ten years ago.

It is once again clear that wild conspiracy theories and the willingness to scapegoat people in show trials have become an effective means of keeping anyone in check in Turkey who could question Erdoğan's authority.

In addition, the case also has international implications: it shows that Turkey is jeopardizing the trust of its European and US allies. Time and again, Ankara tests the limits of what it can afford to do by trampling on human rights and creating the highest degree of legal unpredictability.

Ankara's unpredictability

Turkey's threatening gestures and defiance are part of a strategy: Ankara is opting for unpredictability on internationally relevant issues in exchange for concessions.

The Gezi trial, which is at the heart of this case, is based on an arbitrary reinterpretation: completely spontaneous and unplanned anti-government protests were perversely and brazenly presented as one man's plan to overthrow the government.

As a businessman, Osman Kavala inherited his father's group of companies, but he is best known for his civic work through his association Anadolu Kültür (Anatolian Culture), which promotes the arts as a medium for civic engagement and social dialogue. This is hardly political activism and has absolutely nothing to do with street protests.

Council of Europe sanction procedure

The European Court of Human Rights has twice ruled that Kavala should be released from custody and that there is no evidence to support the accusations against him and his co-defendants. Most importantly, the European Court of Justice concluded that his detention was politically motivated.

Ankara's refusal to release Kavala and drop the case prompted the Council of Europe to launch sanctions proceedings against Turkey in February 2022. This "infringement procedure" is serious and rare, so far it has only been used once against Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, Kavala and the others were convicted just two months later, and these sentences are now final.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has flouted the binding rulings of the European Court of Human Rights. However, the slow progress of the infringement procedure means that there are still no real consequences for Turkey's defiant behaviour. Conceivable here are, for example, the loss of voting rights in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and other sanctions, up to and including expulsion from the bloc.

Turkey's broad-based strategy of even forcing concessions on its part is obvious. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the accelerated NATO accession process for Sweden and Finland, Erdoğan put the brakes on. He insisted that Sweden could only become a member if the country took action against certain Kurds and supporters of US-based cleric Fethullah Gülen, whom Turkey considers terrorists.

At the NATO summit in Vilnius in July, Erdoğan then put himself in the spotlight to suggest that his country's ratification of Sweden's membership application was imminent – only to delay the process again: Sweden did not yet meet the conditions. Turkey is assuming that Europeans are reluctant to continue the conflict after Russia invaded Ukraine.

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At the same time, Turkey is experiencing a worsening economic crisis. It has failed to curb hyperinflation and, most analysts agree, is in dire need of American and European direct investment. Erdoğan was in New York at the beginning of September at the annual meeting of the United Nations and, together with Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, tried to woo banks and financial companies.

Economic crisis in Turkey

But how can long-term investment efforts succeed when investors – in search of predictability and stability – see Turkish courts ignoring the rule of law? That they are making obviously unfounded decisions at the behest of the president to put people like Osman Kavala in jail?

This human rights crisis has serious consequences for the citizens of Turkey, but it also risks spilling over into other areas and undermining international rule of law standards. Germany and the other countries of the EU must decide to focus on cases like that of Kavala and his co-defendants when they have to deal with Turkey at the highest level. The sentences must be overturned. It is long overdue for Turkey to face real consequences for its breaches of the law.