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BRICS Summit: "We must look at India as the rising power"

In Johannesburg, one of the issues at stake at the 15th BRICS summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is the possible expansion of the bloc, which wants to expand its influence in the world. Several African countries have already applied to join BRICS, such as Egypt and Algeria. South Africa has been a member since 2010. What are the challenges of a possible accession for these countries? What do the BRICS expect from these new partnerships? Interview with Carlos Lopes, Professor Emeritus at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa from 2012 to 2016.

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The Sandton Centre in Johannesburg is hosting the XV BRICS Summit, which opened on Tuesday 22 August. AFP - GIANLUIGI GUERCIA

Text by: Anne Verdaguer Follow

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RFI: The issue of BRICS enlargement is central to this meeting in Johannesburg. For the candidate countries, are there any specific expectations vis-à-vis Beijing in terms of financing or opening up markets?

Carlos Lopes: It is clear that for BRICS as a whole, China is the most important country. But China is going through a great crisis from the point of view of its economic model, which is no longer focused on exports but on household consumption. However, there are many difficulties because national savings are affected by the demographic crisis, and during Covid, there has been a decline that has exposed the weaknesses of a number of economic actors. China is not what it used to be and its desire to be able to really occupy space from an economic point of view is much more cautious than before. Africans have detected these changes and they are concerned about it, because the terms of the loans they used to obtain from China with great ease will change in the future.

Are the expectations of the African BRICS candidate countries different vis-à-vis India, for example, or Russia?

Russia does not really have the means for its policy and it makes many statements, but it is constrained by even greater difficulties than those of China. On the other hand, the country that is on the rise from the point of view of its industrial model and which is really very interested in expanding into Africa is India, which already represents an important part of trade with the African continent. So, I think we have to look at India as the rising power. And Brazil, of course, under Lula, will want to catch up a little, but its delay is considerable. For almost fifteen years, there has been no real evolution in relations between Brazil and Africa. On the contrary, there has been a lot of divestment. And then, of course, there is the host country: South Africa, which wants to act as a kind of intermediary between these four giants and Africa.

See alsoWhat are the challenges for the 15th BRICS summit that opens in Johannesburg?

What do you think is the main motivation for these African countries to join the BRICS group?

There is a geopolitical context that is very marked by polarization and African countries in general want to distance themselves from what has been, in the past, the experience of a cold war between different parts of the world, because they have suffered a lot. There is also the question of the various actions of influential countries, including in the South, which are really likely to create internal or regional problems in Africa. African countries therefore have the desire to show a certain independence and this is what motivates them to be part of the BRICS as they are part of a number of institutions and international configurations that are rather pro-Western. So it is rather a desire for demarcation and independence for these African countries.

And on the BRICS side?

Everyone realizes that in the energy transition in particular, Africa will play a very important role, not only because the continent is home to strategic minerals, but also because its population growth endows it with a very young population. And we know that there is a direct correlation between creativity and youth. It is no coincidence that, for example, the country that had one of the most important records in terms of intellectual property registration is losing this patent race, I am talking about Japan, which has an ageing problem. So we know that age penalizes creativity enormously and so everyone is looking to Africa for these reasons of the future, including BRICS. There is also great interest in Africa for geopolitical reasons. The BRICS want to create a much more intense cooperation with the continent, since we are in an era where everyone needs to increase their sphere of influence and Africa is seen as an easy ground for appropriation, even if this can sometimes be reprehensible.

Do the BRICS still want to become a counterweight to Western hegemony?

Yes, but I don't think African countries are interested in that. They don't want to be in alignment with anyone, including BRICS. And I think that this aspect can create internal tensions within the BRICS in the discussions on enlargement. Because the original BRICS countries do not have exactly the same foreign policy, they sometimes even have tensions between them, as is the case for China and India.

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There is also a lot of talk about the de-dollarization of the economy, and the hegemony of the greenback which is challenged by the BRICS, is this possible in the current context?

This is a good intention for the stability of the world economy. We have seen that the various stimulus programs carried out by countries that have strong currencies and that have transaction levels much larger than the size of their economy, make their lives easier, but it complicates that of others, because savings really tend to take refuge in safe places when there are crises. So for the global macro-economy, it is not a bad thing to de-dollarize transactions of all kinds as much as possible. But having said that, the BRICS make a lot of statements along these lines, and do very little. The Africans are, I think, more advanced than the BRICS because the Afreximbank has set up a pan-African payment system that allows you to pay with local currencies to increase the African free trade area and it is a project that is much more fleshed out, much more sophisticated than the one the BRICS are talking about.

Could this de-dollarization also make it possible to free oneself from certain international sanctions such as those imposed on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine?

That's right. There is that concern. International regulation is highly biased and allows those who own strong currencies or have a number of instruments in global economic governance to impose their rules. It is a kind of battle of jurisdictions, and African countries are vulnerable. There are seven African countries under sanctions at the moment, so this concern exists and what is happening in Russia serves as a bit of an example of what the current financial system can provoke, and this is one of the reasons why some African countries want to gain more independence with BRICS.

All about the BRICS

03:11

Understanding BRICS. © RFI

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