This month's voter barometer, produced for SVT by Kantar Public, contains both drama and stability. Since the election, a quarter of voters have switched parties! If you also include those who went to the sofa, a third left the party they voted for in the election last year.
Behind these voter movements there are several explanations. Voters who have changed their minds, are dissatisfied or who simply voted in support of the election and have now gone back to the party they like best.
The opposition continues to have an advantage over the government. However, the trend in the voter barometer is that the gap is narrowing. From 8 percentage points in May to 6.1 percentage points today. It sounds more than it is. It is enough for three percentage points, or about 180,000 voters, to switch sides for it to weigh evenly.
S largest party
The Social Democrats have been at just over 36 percent in Kantar Public's last three voter barometers. This means that it can now be concluded that the party's rise since the election has been broken. With 36.1 percent, the Social Democrats are still in a position of strength and by far the largest party in the Riksdag.
The Social Democrats' increase since the election is due to several things. The party has won voters from several parties, including SD, M and C, but S is also the party that has managed to retain the most voters (90 percent) since the election last year.
The debate last autumn with accusations that the government had broken several election promises was probably an important explanation for the Social Democratic Party rise during the autumn and winter. However, the Social Democratic strategists who hoped for an extra push up in public opinion after this spring's cultural debate and criticism of the government for undermining democracy are likely to be disappointed today.
No such effect can be discerned. The Moderates are doing relatively well, although at completely different levels than the Social Democrats, and the Sweden Democrats have also recovered in public opinion.
Ulf Kristersson's concern is probably more about the situation for the Liberals and Christian Democrats. Both are below the parliamentary threshold and no brightening seems to be in sight. Since the election, L and KD have lost almost half of the voters who voted for them in the parliamentary elections.
Tours around the electricity subsidy
Support for L may have been affected by the debate about the SD, but it is also about the fact that the party received many support votes in the election, and that those voters are no longer there.
KD has other problems. The party has received a lot of negative media attention since the election, much linked to the turns around the electricity support, but also to the debate around Ebba Busch's leadership.
The Green Party is just above the Riksdag threshold, and has partly the same problems as the Liberals. Many people voted for the party, but actually think that another party is better, and when the election is over, they go back to them. Despite the fact that the climate issue is high on many voters' agenda, the MP does not succeed in converting this into increased voter support.
The Center Party is also just above the Riksdag threshold. It should not be ruled out that this term of office could develop into a thriller for the party. The new party leader Muharrem Demirok has low confidence among voters and the party's voter loss has continued since he took office. Without clear profile issues and an unclear position in the Riksdag, it is also difficult to be perceived as relevant by voters.