The thirteen members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), who already met Saturday at the cartel's headquarters in Vienna under the auspices of Saudi Arabia, will be joined by their ten partners led by Russia.

This meeting, the second in the Austrian capital since March 2020, is scheduled to start around 10:00 am (08:00 GMT).

According to a source close to the discussions, a cut of 0.7 to 1 million barrels per day has been mentioned, but the outcome of the meeting remains very uncertain.

The representatives of the OPEC countries remained silent on their intentions when the delegations arrived in the Austrian capital.

"There was no discussion on the volume of production," Iranian Governor Amir Hossein Zamaninia told AFP after the preliminary meeting, referring to Sunday's conclave for which "everything is on the table".

Spectre of recession

True to form, Saudi Prince Abdelaziz bin Salman simply commented on the weather of the day, evading questions from journalists.

His Emirati counterpart, Souhail bin Mohammed Al-Mazrouei, said without elaborating "looking forward to a decision that will balance the market".

While oil has raised the bar in the last two sessions, prices have fallen by about 10% since the surprise announcement in early April by some OPEC + members of a drastic reduction in quotas.

This measure has effectively failed to raise prices in a market depressed by fears of a global economic recession, rate hikes by major central banks and the laborious recovery of demand in China after the anti-Covid restrictions.

Brent, the crude benchmark in Europe, is currently trading at $76 per barrel, and its US equivalent, WTI, at $71 – far from the highs recorded in March 2022 at the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine (nearly $140).

In the face of the economic gloom, "the likelihood of a new cut has risen sharply," Giovanni Stanovo of UBS told AFP.

While he is still betting on a status quo, other analysts, such as Yousef Alshammari of CMarkits, have changed their forecasts. Alshammari now expects "Saudi Arabia to push for a reduction of at least half a million barrels a day."

Maintaining a "united front"

It remains to be seen whether Riyadh will succeed in convincing the other pillar of the group, Russia, which seems reluctant to further tighten the floodgates of black gold - manna used to finance its military offensive.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak "does not see the need for OPEC+ to change course," Commerzbank's Barbara Lambrecht said in a note. Because Moscow would hardly benefit from higher prices.

Due to Western sanctions, only Russian oil at a price of $60 or less can continue to be delivered. Beyond this ceiling, it is forbidden for companies to provide services allowing maritime transport (freight, insurance, etc.).

"On the other hand, Saudi Arabia needs higher prices to balance its budget," says Ms. Lambrecht, who evokes a break-even point around $ 80 a barrel for Riyadh.

Despite these differences, "the two main producers of the cartel will undoubtedly be keen to maintain a united front to preserve their influence," she said.

During their last major disagreement in March 2020, Russia refused to cut its production to support prices pulled towards the abyss by the Covid-19 pandemic. The Saudi kingdom then flooded the market with oil, permanently lowering prices.

"Saudi Arabia does not want this scenario to happen again, nor does Russia," Alshammari said.

© 2023 AFP