The verdict of S&P Global, one of the three main US rating agencies in the world with Moody's and Fitch, is expected in the evening, around 23:00.

The rating agency ranks the France "AA" on a scale of about twenty notches ranging from "AAA", the best possible rating, to "D", synonymous with default. It could lower the rating by at least one rank, to "AA-", but also keep its assessment unchanged.

It can also play on its "perspective", which gives the probable evolution in the medium term. This is currently "negative", which means that a lowering is possible.

His analysis is closely monitored by French leaders anxious to display since the arrival at the Élysée of Emmanuel Macron the image of good managers and reformers. A demotion would be a slap in the face.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance declined to comment to AFP before publication. On Wednesday, Bruno Le Maire confirmed that he had met with the US agency to present the French "arguments", which he considers "convincing".

"We will be intractable on the restoration of our public finances, on the reduction of deficits and on the acceleration of the reduction of the public debt," the minister pledged on France Inter, qualifying the French economic results as "solid".

Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire on April 26, 2023 at the exit of the Elysee © Bertrand GUAY / AFP / Archives

"Whatever S&P's decision, it does not change our determination to meet our public finance objectives," Premier Elisabeth Borne said Thursday on a trip to Laval.

Tested by figures, however, the France shows worse results than other countries rated in the same category, noted the Fitch agency which lowered the French rating at the end of April, from "AA" to "AA-".

High debt and deficit

It holds the highest debt of countries in the "AA" category. Its public debt is indeed close to 3,000 billion euros.

The public deficits expected for this year and next are also much higher than countries with a similar rating, noted Fitch, which also cited the social crisis born of the pension reform and the difficulties that the executive would face for future reforms as justification for its decision.

On this point, French President Emmanuel Macron judged that the Fitch agency "was deeply mistaken in its political analysis", during a recent interview with the French daily L'Opinion.

For its part, Moody's stressed in a comment at the end of April the "weak mandate" that the government now had to carry out its policy, without revising the France's rating.

The government's concerns about these decisions are commensurate with the risks that a downgrade often poses to a state: a rise in borrowing interest rates by investors demanding additional collateral to lend to the France.

The downward revision of Fitch's rating, however, did not really weigh on French rates.

Nevertheless, the situation is already delicate: interest rates on 10-year bonds are sailing to the highest levels in eleven years due to the monetary tightening of the European Central Bank, which is fighting against inflation and mechanically raising the borrowing rates of the States of the euro zone.

The repayment of the debt burden is also about to become the first state budget in France.

© 2023 AFP