• Appointment with the polls The Government expects institutional loyalty of the PP so that the Spanish presidency of the EU develops normally after 23-J
  • 23-J Sánchez now breaks his 'ticket' with Díaz and competes in radicalism to occupy the "desert" to his left

Since joining La Moncloa, Pedro Sánchez has cultivated an intense international agenda. The president has shown more comfort among foreign leaders than among domestic politics. The image with Joe Biden on May 12 at the White House, just as the electoral campaign of the 28-M elections started, confirmed that good global presence that, however, does not seem to reverse in more votes for his party.

After the debacle and the call for early elections, one of the fronts that has been opened, recovering rumors, jokes and aspirations in equal parts, is that of a possible professional future away from our country. There are several possibilities, but the calendar makes most of them, at least the most interesting, complicated, if not impossible. The sources consulted do not hide that the President of the Government has worked and cultivated his contacts and do not rule out an exit outside our borders in case his future no longer passes through La Moncloa.

From their environment they believe that now Spain "is on the international agenda for the assessment that is made of our country from other forums, whether economic or from the European Commission" and that before it did not occupy that ladder. In the presidential complex he does not hesitate to talk about the "undoubted weight" of the Spanish president "in the world", and they give as an example, in addition to the trip to Washington, his meetings with Zelenski or the president of China, Xi Jinping. "Spain is very well positioned, we have earned absolute respect looking for solutions," say socialist sources. In this framework, his work to become president of the Socialist International would also be installed, a position to which he acceded in November 2022.

However, deadlines for good positions are very complicated. In early June 2024 the European elections will be held, and shortly thereafter the leaders of the 27 will meet in Brussels to elect the next presidents of the Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament. That's too late for any of Sanchez's aspirations. If his party were to win the elections and could remain in power, it seems unlikely that he would want to leave it to, for example, take over the European Council, as the current occupant, Charles Michel, did. The Belgian was acting prime minister of the country, but he did opt for the community career, leaving a colleague at the head of the interim government.

Sánchez could only aspire to the presidency of the European Parliament as an MEP, so he is ruled out. Obviously he would not go on those lists while in Moncloa and it is impossible for him to reach the post if by then there is already a 'popular' Executive. The Commission's option, already hampered because everything points to a second term for Ursula Von der Leyen, could only succeed if she remained in power and defended her own candidacy, and required very clear socialist results throughout the continent. But unlike in 2019, he is no longer the main Social Democratic leader and its unofficial negotiator, as in Germany there is now Olaf Scholz. And in his European family he still stings his way of fighting last time, which did not serve to bring the candidate Frans Timmermans from the high position.

There are few other options in the EU, at least at the highest level. It is being studied who will preside over the European Investment Bank from January, but it is something too 'small' and who sounded in the corridors of the Grand Duchy is its vice president Calviño, who has already opted for the World Bank or the IMF.

So in the option that remains is the general secretariat of NATO, for which the deadlines are also very complicated, but with a very unlikely carom perhaps it could fit, but with the implicit or explicit consent of the Popular Party. Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg leaves his post in September. It should have done so now, a long time ago, but knowing how to take Donald Trump first and the war in Ukraine later forced allies to extend his mandate several times and there are even those who want him to continue until 2024, when the 75th anniversary will be celebrated in Washington.

Their deadline expired in September last year, but in March, days after the start of the Russian invasion, they chose to extend it until September 30, 2023. So it is normal that after summer the baton passes, and that the leaders of the 31 members choose their successor at the summit to be held in Vilnius (Lithuania) on July 11 and 12, less than two weeks before the Spanish elections.

If Sánchez is the Socialist candidate in the elections, as everyone hopes, he could not be elected at that summit. But if it wasn't, or NATO couldn't agree on a replacement for Stoltenberg in Lithuania, and had to postpone it a bit, perhaps the many pieces could fall into place. There is no formal candidacy presented yet and diplomatic sources say the process is not mature right now, there is no progress.

Source of the Alliance assure that the profile of the Spaniard is "very appreciated and valued". Months ago it was openly in the internal pools, discreetly, but now there are more doubts. Veterans of the house say that nothing is impossible, that there are no rules and everything is in the will of the heads of government and state. And if there are no better candidates, or those who generate consensus, any goofiness is possible. No one, at least, dares to say that it cannot be or will not be outright.

The tradition is that the secretary-general is a European and not an American, but the name of Canadian Vice President Chrystia Freeland sounds a lot. However, according to Atlantic sources, the preference is a former head of government. Only if there were no candidates or consensus would it move to the level of ministers. There is also an interest in preferably a woman, since none has held the position so far. And surely from the south, after the last ones have been a Dutchman, a Dane and a Norwegian. But none of that is mandatory.

They sound the Estonian Kaja Kallas, but her recent re-election and that she is too 'hawkish' against Russia worries some partners. Also running strongly is the Danish Mette Frederiksen, who has just announced that her country will triple defense spending by the end of the decade and that this month she will be received by Joe Biden at the White House. Other names that have circulated in the Belgian capital in recent months are those of former British Prime Minister Theresa May or the current Minister of Defense, Ben Wallace. That of the Dutchman Mark Rutte, who continues to head the Dutch Executive and who does not seem very interested. Or the presidents of Romania, Slovakia and even Mario Draghi.

The move that could place Sanchez would require him to take a step back in Spain now and go head-on in July with everything. And if not, that there would be no firm agreement in Vilnius but, in anticipation of its foreseeable defeat at the polls, it would then be agreed to wait for the results before making a decision. And should everything fall into alignment, an additional summit, perhaps online, would be held a few weeks later, in time for the next secretary-general to take the helm on October 1. It is not legally impossible, but very rare. It would condition 31 leaders, starting with the U.S. to be a second term at the most critical time for the Alliance in a long time, to an uncertain election outcome. And it would require no extension for the Norwegian. And it would also require the approval of the PP.

He likes him, is respected much more outside than inside, speaks languages, has cultivated contact and has shown much more external ambition than his more recent predecessors. He has allies and although in Spain his ambition is known, in Europe or America he is seen as someone much more in favor of consensus and who rarely blocks or hinders, even when he has pursued controversial objectives for the rest, such as energy reform.

Against the president, in addition to the times, is that Spain is the second country by the tail in defense spending and very far from the commitments of 2%, despite the fact that we are very active in international missions, there is a presence of troops in all hot spots and there is a base in Rota. Not to mention the coalition with Podemos, which went to great lengths to attack and discredit the alliance's summit in Madrid last year.

In addition, it would be really delicate for an outgoing prime minister, having already been defeated at the polls, to push his own campaign against the will of the incoming government, which is the one who will have a seat in the organization for the next few years. If this were still the case, the PP would have a difficult time publicly positioning itself against the appointment of a Spaniard to such an important position, but with relations so deteriorated it is difficult to imagine any kind of enthusiastic support, regardless of whether it is a national.

  • Pedro Sanchez
  • Olaf Scholz
  • Joe Biden
  • European Commission
  • NATO
  • General Elections

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