SPIEGEL talk on the war in Ukraine: Arms deliveries as "fetish thinking" of the West?

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Talk guests Major, Merkel in the SPIEGEL studio

Photo: 0; 0.0 / DER SPIEGEL

For more than 15 months, Russia has been waging a war in Ukraine in violation of international law. How can the conflict be ended? Security expert Claudia Major and political scientist Wolfgang Merkel spoke about this in the SPIEGEL top-level discussion with moderator Markus Feldenkirchen – and very different views became clear.

Major is a research group leader for security policy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. She fears that Moscow wants to turn the war in Ukraine into a "frozen war" over the years. The West must therefore work "to ensure that the war is resolved soon". Major advocates arms deliveries to put Russia in its place militarily. Merkel, on the other hand, considers arms deliveries to be "fetish thinking" on the part of the West. He was a democracy researcher at the Humboldt University of Berlin for many years and was one of the first signatories of the »Manifesto for Peace« by Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer.

"If two parties to the conflict are not willing to negotiate, third parties are needed"

The political scientist warns of a "lose-lose situation" and countless deaths in Ukraine. Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin cannot be defeated militarily by numerical means alone. The researcher fears "new turns of escalation" and urges "negotiations, negotiations, negotiations": "If the two parties to the conflict are not willing to negotiate, third parties are needed."

Germany cannot be this powerful third party for Merkel, but the United States can. The task of Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is to move Washington in this direction: "Germany could push: 'Don't just do these marginal talks!'" According to Merkel, the West should work towards bringing Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the table as soon as possible.

Major, on the other hand, warned that the West and China have repeatedly sought to negotiate since the beginning of the war, but that Russia is simply "not interested" in talks. This is not a war that can be solved with compromise and checkbook. It's about power." As long as Russia believes it can achieve its goals militarily, there will be no peace, Major argues. "And then to think we're going to make an agreement here and then it's good, is misleading."

Accordingly, Major sees the path to an honest agreement in continued support for Ukraine: "The most promising solution at the moment seems to be to put Russia under military pressure in such a way that it sees more success in quitting than in continuing."

Nevertheless, the security expert also sends a warning to Kyiv. Again and again there are drone attacks on Russian territory, not in all cases it is clear whether the Ukrainian leadership is behind the attacks. So far, the attacks have targeted strategically important facilities in Russia. On Tuesday, drones damaged a residential building in Moscow for the first time.

"From the Ukrainian point of view, it is wise to continue to focus on military targets," Major said. The UN Charter allows an attacked country to defend itself with counterstrikes. However, only if they remain "proportionate" and only target strategic targets such as railway tracks or military installations. Russia is "clearly not complying with international law" with its attack on Ukraine. According to Major, Kiev must avoid attacking civilian targets on its part.

Mrc