Le Temps said that the Ukrainian counteroffensive that everyone was waiting for was on the horizon and seemed to be bloody, but the Russians, who have opted for a defensive strategy, appear to be planning a protracted war to exhaust the Ukrainians and their allies.
The Swiss newspaper explained - in a column by Eric Housley, its former chairman specializing in Russia affairs, that no one knows the exact date of the massive operation announced by the Ukrainians several months ago, but the extent of the observed force indicates that it is not very far away.
Meanwhile, Russian forces are focusing their bombardment and rocket fire deep inside the Ukrainian front and on its supply lines, accumulating stockpiles of equipment, ammunition, and fuel ahead of the large build-up.
In contrast, the Ukrainian army is targeting Russian airports and military warehouses in backtowns, at a time when Ukrainian and Russian social media sites portend terrifying scenes of fires, explosions and "preparations" that may be a picture of what will happen in the combat zone in the coming weeks.
All Western and Russian military experts agree that this counterattack — which would be extremely deadly and costly — would not be followed by another counterattack until many months later, because it would likely be focused on cutting off the land corridor linking Donbass to Crimea.
Breaking through this corridor to reach the Sea of Azov requires an enormous amount of troops and resources, although it will be difficult to maintain and defend, compensate for the forces that fall into it and replace or repair destroyed equipment, says German General Hans-Luther Dumrus.
Political consequences
Russia's General Staff is betting on this massacre, fundamentally changing its strategy to become almost completely defensive, and its military has prepared to repel the declared Ukrainian counterattack, by placing mines and fortifying the front line at a depth of about 20 kilometers.
Instead of offensive, Moscow seeks to make the adversary weaken itself to exhaustion, especially since the Russian military has not taken any major initiative in the past seven months, other than the symbolic battle of Bachmut.
The choice of a defensive decision with the endorsement of President Vladimir Putin himself confirms that Russia has stopped the rhetoric of invasion and complete victory over the Kiev regime, and its goal is to preserve gains, especially newly annexed territory.
Moscow is therefore now betting on a long-term war in order to gradually exhaust the adversary, especially as Ukrainians worry that Westerners may not be prepared for a long-term war.
He concluded that the stakes are high, and the counterattack aims to regain lost ground, to adjust the balance of power on the ground, either in the hope of a slow successive reoccupation, or Russian concessions in future negotiations.
Without the great success they hope for, Ukrainians should be able to deliver results to their allies that justify the importance of the financial sacrifices already made and facilitate their continued commitment tomorrow and perhaps the day after tomorrow.