Highlights: The Social Affairs Committee of the National Assembly has been examining since Wednesday morning a bill by the independent centrist group Liot. The bill aims to repeal the postponement of the legal retirement age to 64 years. The majority and its allies seem determined to do everything to prevent a vote during the plenary examination scheduled for June 8. The opposition says returning to retirement at 62 means creating at least 15 billion euros of additional spending. The government's bet to see the movement run out of steam seems to be about to be won.

Repeal of retirement at age 64 in France: several scenarios but little hope of voting

The Social Affairs Committee of the National Assembly has been examining since Wednesday morning a bill by the independent centrist group Liot which aims to repeal the postponement of the legal retirement age to 64 years. But the majority and its allies seem determined to do everything to prevent a vote during the plenary examination scheduled for June 8. So, does this proposal only have a chance of being debated in the Chamber? It got off to a bad start this morning.

The Social Affairs Committee of the National Assembly has been examining since Wednesday morning, May 31, a bill by the independent centrist group Liot which aims to repeal the postponement of the legal retirement age to 64 years. AP - Christophe Ena

Text by: Pierrick Bonno Follow

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The examination which began on the morning of 31 May in the Committee on Social Affairs is in a way a pre-examination of the text, before the examination in plenary. They are 73 MEPs and they will rewrite the text tabled by the Liot group, in anticipation of its examination in the hemicycle. The presidential camp and the LR, between them, have the majority in committee. And they simply decided this morning to delete Article 1, which provides for the repeal of the postponement of the legal age of departure to 64. The bill has therefore been emptied of its substance.

First round won by the majority

But oppositions have more than one trick up their sleeve. And are determined to play with the Rules of Procedure of the Assembly. First possibility, and this is what has been happening since midday: the oppositions are trying to prevent by all means, including obstruction, a vote on the entire bill in committee, by this evening. This would have the effect of sending the initial text to the sitting on 8 June with this famous Article 1. Second possibility: reintroduce the repeal of the retirement age at 64 in the text by an amendment, by 8 June. The President of the Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet could then decide alone to declare the amendment inadmissible and thus prevent the vote in the hemicycle.

Inability to create uncompensated expenses

Because there is one thing that is forbidden for MPs, when they draft a piece of legislation. It is to create additional expenses that are not compensated. However, and this has been the main argument of the majority from the beginning, returning to retirement at 62 means creating at least 15 billion euros of additional spending. So certainly, the Liot group proposes to organize a major social conference to find the necessary money, but this does not convince anyone in the presidential camp. Visibly under pressure from Matignon, Yaël Braun-Pivet has already said that there should be no debate and that this proposal was clearly unconstitutional. One can imagine what his decision would be. And then, the Renaissance deputies have been trumpeting it for several weeks: if ever the text was finally voted in the Assembly, the Senate would reject it and as a last resort, the proposal would be rejected by the Constitutional Council, whose role is, as its name suggests, to judge the constitutionality of the texts of law. This makes a minister, very serene, say that this proposal has no chance of success: "draw a line on 15 billion euros of revenue, it does not exist," according to him.

A baroud of honor for the oppositions

If this text does not succeed, other groups will still be able to table similar texts to request the repeal of the legal postponement of the retirement age, but they would certainly meet the same fate. The unions, for their part, are calling on workers to participate massively in a fourteenth day of mobilization on June 6, next week. But the mobilization was down in recent days. In short, the government's bet to see the movement run out of steam seems to be about to be won. This makes the boss of the RN deputies Marine Le Pen say that if the French are opposed to the pension reform, the next deadline is 2027. In other words, the battle for pensions is lost and if voters want it repealed, they will have to vote for it in the next presidential election.

Repeal of retirement at age 64 in France: several scenarios but little hope of voting

Repeal of retirement at age 64 in France: several scenarios but little hope of voting

First round won by the majority

Inability to create uncompensated expenses

A baroud of honor for the oppositions

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