• Elections Feijóo: "Sánchez wants Spaniards to choose between ballot boxes or vacations"

Pedro Sánchez's decision to call a general election with the summer so advanced is unprecedented in democracy. Until now, the historical records of the summer consultation did not exceed the month of June. The closest precedent in a general election occurred on June 26, 2016, with Rajoy and Sánchez himself as rivals.

The only electoral process that was held in the hottest month of the year dates from July 6, 1947. The Franco government organized a referendum on the Law of Succession in the Head of State. Obviously, the heat does not influence the voter of a process without democratic guarantees as much as that: on that day 88.6% of the census participated. The victory of the yes vote was overwhelming (93%) and in this way the Caudillo named himself head of state "for life" granting himself the opportunity to choose a successor.

Now, the shock of Sánchez's announcement raises many questions that today are difficult to answer due to the unprecedented situation. Will the parties change their electoral strategy? Will there be police hunting of rebels of the electoral months fled to Benidorm or Torremolinos? Will abstention increase in the south? Will the north vote more because of the heat?

THE CAMPAIGN

The foreseeable boom in postal voting may split the next electoral competition in two. The marketing machines of the competing parties will have to be activated long before the official announcement of the campaign to convince the epistolary voter. That's not all, but there will be more changes. "The parties will not be able to put people in a rally in Jaén at 40 degrees in the shade," says Ignacio Varela, a political consultant with experience in the Presidential Cabinet in Moncloa and strategist in different PSOE elections. "Because of the heat, we are going to see a change of scenarios and, above all, schedules." It would not be strange that, seeing the panorama, some party dares to use the song Mucho mejor (hace calor), by Los Rodríguez, as a campaign soundtrack.

PARTICIPATION

There is fear in analysts and parties that such a fucking date for the holiday future of many citizens will cause democratic disaffection and a fall in electoral participation that, on average, has been around 70% throughout this century. Beyond the date, the weather could also be decisive... Although, as Varela indicates, in the elections last Sunday, in which participation fell one point, the rain that fell in many parts of Spain did not mean "discrimination" in participation.

HOT FLASHES

"The heat wave awaits us," says Roberto Brasero, the weatherman of Antena 3. "This is the name we give to the period in Spain that goes from July 15 to August 15 and in which the highest temperatures are statistically recorded." We asked the meteorologist for data from that particular day: "Last July 23 coincided with the peak of the heat wave with very high average temperatures throughout the country, especially in the south of the peninsula in which the maximum 40 degrees were exceeded".

The parties will not be able to put people in a rally in Jaén at 40 degrees in the shade

The effects of so much heat will affect those who occupy the polling stations, most of them - closed as a rule in summer - that do not have air conditioning equipment. A situation that is very uncomfortable in the autonomous community of Andalusia, since its electoral law prohibits, since 1990, holding elections in the months of July and August in order to avoid embarrassment and alter the holidays.

The 23-J will not only affect the citizens who occupy the tables, but also the voters themselves. Every summer doctors warn, and this will not be an exception, that high temperatures cause strong stress on the body that impacts more harshly on the elderly. In 2022 alone, according to the Carlos III Health Institute, 4,650 deaths due to excessive heat were registered. 96% were people over 65 years of age.

It is very likely that the large queues in schools will be early in the morning and in the vicinity of the closing of the polls to haggle the hardest hours of the sun. "It is clear that the heat will change the voting cycles on election day handled by the Ministry of the Interior," explains Varela.

POLLING STATIONS

The thermometer of citizen anguish soared when Pedro Sánchez made the announcement on Monday. That day Google searches on "how to get rid of the polling station", "polling station fines" or "travel polling station" skyrocketed. Yesterday, this research work became more sophisticated with much more specific searches, such as "BOE call publication" and "date of lottery of polling station".

Concern hovered in WhatsApp groups as information was published explaining that the holiday trip was not an exemption from citizen obligation by the electoral law. In these cases, those affected must allege before the Electoral Board of Zone. The key to getting rid is to provide flight or hotel reservations, in addition to demonstrating that the trip was organized before the call and alleging the economic damage that this situation can cause.

If appeals are rejected, do not attempt to flee. The electoral fugitive faces a fine that can be very large and can even be sentenced to prison terms of between 3 months and a year. So in the coming weeks, the Spaniard who played the month of July in the office holiday draw will open his home mailbox with distrust. It is the epistolary panicto the Electoral Board.

TOURISM

The surprise announcement could also have an impact on hotel reservations and even the way many families have planned their vacations, although at the moment there is no data. Conclusive. In addition, a complication is added for the holidaymaker: the elections will be held in the middle of the bridge of Santiago Apóstol (July 25), which will be a holiday in Galicia, Castilla y León, the Basque Country and Navarra. Only on those dates, last year were moved, according to the DGT, six million vehicles in the country.

At the moment, within the tourism sector there is no concern. The Spanish Confederation of Travel Agencies (Ceav) and the Corporate Association of Specialized Travel Agencies (Acave) ensure that the elections will not affect the sector's reservations for the summer. They assume that Spaniards who already have holidays booked will choose to vote by mail, although they will condition those who are still looking for a destination.

  • Summer
  • Articles Jorge Benítez

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