She preferred Kılıçdaroğlu. Did Erdogan's victory shock Washington?

Washington — "I know him very well, he is a friend, and I have learned firsthand how much he loves his country and the great people of Turkey, who have elevated him to a new level of fame and respect," former President Donald Trump sent a congratulatory telegram to President Erdogan two hours after the results of Turkey's presidential election were announced.

More than 3 hours later, President Joe Biden issued a statement congratulating President Erdogan and expressing his aspiration to continue working together as NATO allies on bilateral issues and global challenges.

U.S. officials tread cautiously during the first round of elections, and the official stance of President Joe Biden's administration continued to be cautious until the end of the second election phase with the victory of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Officially, Washington did not endorse any of the candidates in the Turkish elections, because it does not want to interfere in Turkey's internal affairs and because it needs to live with the winner anyway.

Neutrality is a formal option

International affairs expert Wolfgang Postztai noted that "although Turkey's foreign policy interests will likely remain the same, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was the Americans' preferred candidate, who expected him to adopt a more cooperative political style and would have tried to improve relations with the United States and Europe."

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Postztay added, "Moreover, Kılıçdaroğlu's way of local leadership would have been characterized by a return to more democracy, a reduction in the role of the state in the economy, and respect for press freedom."

Howard Eisenstadt said, "Washington has done its best to remain neutral, but in practice, I think it prefers Kılıçdaroğlu's victory, and that's not because Washington sees Erdogan as authoritarian as much as it sees his positions as unpredictable."

For his part, former assistant secretary of state for Middle East affairs and current expert at the Atlantic Council, Ambassador David Mack, stressed that "the Biden administration has always avoided taking sides in the Turkish elections."

Erdogan and Ankara's geopolitical independence

Giorgio Cafiero, executive director of the Center for Arab Gulf States Analysis in Washington, said that while "President Erdogan was in power, the United States had a difficult time with its ally Turkey, and Ankara's growing geopolitical independence from the West in a multipolar world, confirmed by Turkey's relationship with Russia, has alarmed officials in Washington."

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Cafiero added, "Many in the United States would have preferred to see Kılıçdaroğlu take the initiative, because of expectations that he would have restored Ankara's closer relationship with NATO and taken a stronger stance against Moscow's aggression in Ukraine."

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Ambassador David Mack considered that "Erdogan was a difficult partner for Washington, but the United States needs a strong partner to stand with us in the Black Sea, the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean."

"Turkey wants better economic and military relations with the United States, and that gives Washington leverage with Erdogan, it will require skilled diplomacy," Mack said.

Opportunity to adjust relationships

There is a lot of tension in the Turkish-American alliance, however, in Erdogan's new 5-year term, it will provide opportunities for the two countries to reset relations and move the alliance in a more positive direction.

He added that the Ukrainian file will be important for the future of relations between Ankara and Washington, as on the one hand, the United States was not satisfied with Turkey's decision to avoid imposing sanctions on Russia as Ankara took a relatively more neutral stance towards the war.

Turkey's approach to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict puts Ankara in a position to help de-escalate, because Erdogan's government has maintained good relations with both Moscow and Kiev. When it comes time to negotiate with the Russians, Turkey will probably have a unique role to play, and that has the potential to serve everyone's interests, including those of Western countries."

On the issue of Sweden's accession to NATO, an issue that has created tension between Turkey and the United States, Cafiero said that "the coming weeks and months will see pressure from Washington on Erdogan's government to agree to allow Sweden to join the transatlantic alliance."

However, factors related to the PKK make this a very sensitive topic in Turkey, and Ankara may not give in to U.S. pressure as the Biden team and the foreign policy establishment in Washington would like.

Escalating tensions

By contrast, international affairs expert Wolfgang Postztai said the next five years will see strained relations between Ankara and Washington.

"Erdogan no longer has to take his domestic political opponents into account. Erdogan would be more willing to risk military adventures abroad, especially in Syria, because he does not need to fear the consequences of Turkish casualties. While it will remain problematic within NATO, Sweden is likely to accept a NATO member in a swap for some U.S. F-16s and the transfer of military technology.

"Erdogan will seek to strengthen his relationship with Russia not only politically and economically, but also in the field of the arms industry, much to the dismay of the United States, especially in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine," the spokesman added.

If his relations with the West develop in a negative way, "he may even become like a Russian Trojan horse within NATO," he said, adding, "However, Erdogan's political style will make it easier for Turkey's adversaries in the West to exclude the country from certain activities and areas of cooperation."

On the other hand, Howard Eisenstadt, a Turkey expert at the Middle East Institute in Washington, pointed out that American circles believe that Erdogan will try to reset relations with the United States, and logic says that he needs some stability to regain control of the economy and attract investment.

But Eisenstadt expects the challenges of the relationship to remain largely unresolved, adding, "I don't expect a dramatic breakup, but I think relations between the United States and Turkey will remain fraught for the foreseeable future."

Foreign Policy magazine published a joint report advising American experts to be objective when considering Turkey, written by Sinan Sidi, a Turkey expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Stephen Cook, an expert on Turkey at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"Hopes are not analysis, and like many commentators who said Donald Trump could not win, analysts who thought Kılıçdaroğlu would win were allowing their biases and beliefs to shape their analyses," the report said.