Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains master of Turkey after his victory in the presidential election

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won this Sunday, May 28, the victory in the second round of the presidential election in Turkey. He was re-elected for a five-year term. Many projects await him.

Turkish President Erdogan speaks to a crowd gathered outside the presidential palace in Ankara after his victory, May 29, 2023. © UMIT BEKTAS/REUTERS

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains master of Turkey for another five years. Despite a strong desire for change on the part of the electorate, the head of state, 69, was the favourite in the second round of the presidential election with a five-point lead at the end of the first round on 14th May, where he won 49.5% of the vote. In power for twenty years he won 52.1% of the vote against 47.9% for his opponent Kemal Kiliçdaroglu after counting nearly 99.7% of the vote and declared winner by the electoral commission.

The victory was not as broad as hoped by the presidential camp. And some at the AKP headquarters say they are a little surprised that the gap of 5 points that separated Kemal Kiliçdaroglu and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the first round is not more important this Sunday evening, reports our special envoy in Istanbul, Daniel Vallot. Many Erdogan supporters hoped for more than 60 percent of the vote. "But the most important thing," says a member of the AKP party, "is that victory is achieved and that the Turkish president can continue the work begun just 20 years ago." Spontaneous gatherings formed everywhere in the cities where the "reis" triumphed, especially in the heart of Anatolia.

« To be against Erdogan was to be against the state »

Three things could give hope for alternation, Samim Akgonül, director of the Turkish studies department at the University of Strasbourg, told RFI. First, the wear and tear of power after 20 years at the head of the state. Then, an economic crisis that has lasted for two years with hyperinflation and impoverishment of the population. The official inflation rate was more than 40% over a year after exceeding 85% in the autumn, the result of a steady cut in interest rates wanted by President Erdogan. The latter claims, contrary to conventional economic theories, that high interest rates promote inflation and he indicated during his campaign that he had no intention of raising them.

The Turkish lira has lost more than half of its value in two years and this week reached 20 pounds to the dollar. According to official data, Ankara spent $25 billion in one month to support it. But its collapse seems inevitable. Especially since foreign exchange reserves have gone into the red for the first time since 2002.

The last reason that could have caused the defeat of Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the earthquake last February that devastated entire areas of Turkey, killing 50,000 people and leaving 3 million homeless. "These three causes could have swept away any regime in the world," says researcher Samim Akgonül. But the rational reasons for voting in Turkey take a back seat to the irrational reasons related to national identity on the one hand and religious identity on the other and way of life. In all three cases, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to convince that he was an integral part of the state. To be against Erdogan was to be against the state. So half of the voters had this feeling of voting for the state.

« Huge challenges to tackle together »

The re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan was greeted with a chorus of congratulations that reflect the importance of Ankara's role on the international stage. First to welcome his victory, Russian President Vladimir Putin saw it as "the logical result" of "dedicated work" at the head of the country and "clear proof" of the Turkish president's efforts "to strengthen the sovereignty of the state and conduct an independent foreign policy". A little later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he hoped for "a further strengthening of the strategic partnership" between Kiev and Ankara, "as well as the strengthening of our cooperation for the security and stability of Europe." Turkey is playing a mediating role in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It was at the centre of discussions regarding the agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain by sea. As a partner of Ukraine, to which it supplies combat drones, it is also close to Russia, on which it depends for its energy and wheat supplies.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also praised Erdogan, calling Turkey and Germany "close allies," whose "peoples and economies are deeply connected." "I look forward to continuing to work together as NATO allies on bilateral issues and global challenges," US President Joe Biden tweeted. "The France and Turkey have immense challenges to face together," Macron said on Twitter. Return of peace to Europe, future of our Euro-Atlantic Alliance, Mediterranean Sea.

Despite these calls from Europeans to work in cooperation, RFI researcher Samim Akgonül points to a scenario in which Recep Tayyip Erdogan risks being more radical vis-à-vis Europe: "He has allied himself with the nationalist right and radical Islam. He will absolutely not force himself to join the European Union. It could rally with more authoritarian countries like Russia, there are seeds of that, but also China. Russia's foreign policy can be expected to shift to the right and Asiatize.

At the regional level, Recep Tayyip Erdogan now has five more years to get closer to his Syrian neighbor, the attempts made in recent months have not succeeded despite Russian mediation. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad demanded in advance of any meeting with his counterpart the withdrawal of Turkish forces stationed in northern Syria under rebel control and the end of Ankara's support for rebel groups opposed to Damascus. Turkey, which has launched several incursions against jihadist and Kurdish groups in Syrian territory since 2016, hosts 3.4 million Syrian refugees who have fled the war. Erdogan announced in early May the construction of 200,000 housing units on thirteen sites in northern Syria to allow the "voluntary" return of at least one million people.

Fear for fundamental freedoms

Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also face several challenges at the national level. One of his priorities will undoubtedly be to relieve a population that is out of breath in the face of inflation. The other challenge is the reconstruction of the regions affected by the earthquake of 6 February. The president has promised to rebuild 650,000 homes in the affected provinces as soon as possible. The total cost of the damage from the disaster is more than $100 billion.

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It is time to put aside the disputes of the election campaign and achieve unity and solidarity around the dreams of our nation. " said the head of state to the crowd massed in front of the presidential palace in Ankara. But among his opponents, this re-election at the head of the country raises fears of a new threat to fundamental freedoms. In its World Report 2022, Human Rights Watch estimated that Turkey had regressed decades on human rights under Erdogan's presidency.

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I think it's going to get worse " says researcher Samim Akgonül to RFI. "In 20 years of power, the entire state apparatus is under the orders of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The state campaigned for re-election. From this re-election, values such as human rights, the rule of law or participatory democracy will really be put on the back burner. I believe that we are starting a very difficult period with regard to fundamental and universal freedoms in Turkey. The re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan comes ten years to the day after the beginning of the large "Gezi" demonstrations that had spread throughout the country and had been severely repressed.

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