ISTANBUL — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won a new presidential term, becoming the longest-serving president in the history of the republic, after an election round characterized by intense competition and uncertainty until the percentage of votes counted exceeded 90%.

With more than 99 percent of ballot boxes counted nationwide, Erdogan received 27.4 million votes (52.11 percent), while his rival, opposition Umma Alliance candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, received 25.2 million votes (47.89 percent), after more than 52.5 million Turkish citizens cast their ballot boxes, with a turnout of about 84 percent.

The results of today's election round were particularly important, some fixed and others new, compared to the May 14 elections, but collectively they led to Erdogan's historic victory over his rival.

Participation intensity

Voter turnout among Turks is one of the highest in the world, ranging for decades between 75% and 90%, and while voter turnout in the May 14 elections was around 88%, it recorded a slight drop in the run-off with 84%.

This rate is still high, but it reflects, according to observers, a laxity by a segment of the electorate on both sides of the competition, affected by the results of the first round, which showed a comfortable lead for President Erdogan over his rival Kılıçdaroğlu by 4.5 points, and also led to the ruling public alliance winning the majority of parliamentary seats, which generated a kind of confidence among government supporters, and despair among opposition supporters.

Paradoxically, Turkish voters abroad came as a surprise, as it witnessed a higher turnout in the run-off than the first, with more than 1.9 million voters voting at diplomatic missions abroad, and turnout exceeding 56%, compared to 54% in the first round.

Earthquake areas

The southern province of Hatay was one of the most prominent features of today's results, as its votes were given almost equally to the competing candidates, while Erdogan won a slight advantage of 50.13%, a result similar to that of the first round, with a slight lead for Kılıçdaroğlu, knowing that Hatay is one of the most affected Turkish provinces by the February 6 earthquake.

The rest of the earthquake-affected states, which gave the majority of their votes to Erdogan in the May 14 round, did not change their electoral loyalty, but recorded an increase in the number of votes obtained by the Turkish president by the thousands. For example, after Erdogan won 453,469 votes in the first round, he managed to increase this figure to <>,<>.

In Şanlıurfa, while Kılıçdaroğlu's votes fell from 352,330 to 606,610, Erdogan's votes increased from <>,<> to <>,<>.

In the earthquake-affected provinces that voted for Kılıçdaroğlu in the first round, turnout declined overall, while the number of votes received by the latter declined. Even in the Kurdish-majority province of Diyarbakir, turnout fell from 81.7 percent to 75.9 percent, giving the opposition candidate 610,651 votes, down from 3,<>, while Erdogan's vote increased slightly by about <>,<>.

The municipality of Tekirdağ of the Republican People's Party (CHP), led by Kılıçdaroğlu, took the decision to stop the program to shelter those affected by the displaced from the earthquake areas, in a similar form of collective punishment, after the announcement of the results of the first round of the elections, which showed that the majority of the people of the earthquake areas voted for Erdogan, which sparked indignation on social media.

Kurdish regions

As in Diyarbakir, one of Turkey's six largest provinces and the largest Kurdish-majority province, most of these provinces showed a decline in turnout at the polls, along with a relative decline in the number of votes they awarded to the opposition candidate, who nevertheless remained at the top of the polls.

In Van province, for example, turnout fell from 78 percent to 72 percent, and the number of votes received by Kılıçdaroğlu fell from 334,308 to 191,193, while Erdogan maintained his number of votes and increased slightly from <>,<> to <>,<>.

An exception to this trend was Tunceli, where the opposition candidate hails, maintaining turnout at 87 percent and slightly increasing the number of votes it gave to Kılıçdaroğlu from 45,47 to about <>,<>.

The opposition candidate and candidate of the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) angered the party's Kurdish bases after allying with hardline nationalist Zafar Party leader Ümit Özdağ, while Kılıçdaroğlu adopted a tougher nationalist rhetoric, prompting the HDP to publicly criticize the alliance while sticking to supporting the opposition candidate against Erdogan.

Major States

The results of the run-off for the Turkish presidential elections resulted in a map very similar to that drawn by the results of the first round, with the exception of Hatay province, which tilted in favor of Erdogan after it was among the provinces that voted for Kılıçdaroğlu.

But the most important observation in this map is the continued support of 6 out of the 7 largest provinces for the opposition candidate, especially Istanbul and the capital Ankara.

In Istanbul, where turnout fell slightly from 90.5 percent to 87.6 percent, Kılıçdaroğlu received nearly 200,5 more votes than in the first round, 1.20 million, while the Turkish president maintained his number of votes with a slight increase of <>,<> votes.

The Turkish capital followed in Istanbul's footsteps, with turnout falling from 91% to 88% and giving the opposition candidate about 100,45 more votes than he received in the first round, while Erdogan in turn increased his number of votes by <>,<> votes.

The AKP lost the mayorship of Istanbul and Ankara to CHP candidates in the 2019 local elections by a narrow margin, before the High Election Board decided to re-vote in Istanbul, resulting in a stronger victory over AKP candidate Binali Yildirim, putting an end to more than 25 years of the party's dominance of the mayoralty.