Highlights: Yevgeny Prigozhin is one of the faces of the "special operation" abroad, but not in Russia. In less than a year, the Wagner leader has come out of the shadows at such a speed that now, each of his speeches or videos almost daily meets a global echo. He is also now credited with a lot of influence and ambition in his country, often wrongly. His videos violently critical against the elites and especially those of the army, his flowery language... All this remains confined to a single space.

In less than a year, the Wagner leader has come out of the shadows at such a speed that now, each of his speeches or videos almost daily meets a global echo. We lend him...

Analysis

Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of the faces of the "special operation" abroad, but not in Russia

In less than a year, the Wagner leader has come out of the shadows at such a speed that now, each of his speeches or videos almost daily meets a global echo. He is also now credited with a lot of influence and ambition in his country, often wrongly.

The boss of the Wagner paramilitary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on April 8, 2023 in Moscow, Russia. © YULIA MOROZOVA/REUTERS

Text by: Anissa El Jabri Follow

Advertising

From our correspondent in Moscow,

Relayed and widely discussed in the media outside Russia, Yevgeny Prigozhin's communiqués and abundant speeches are never the subject of broad public debate in Russia. And for good reason: the only two times Wagner's name was mentioned on Russian television channels were for the conquest of Soledar in the autumn of 2022 and for the claim of the capture of Bakhmut. On the night of Saturday to Sunday, for the first time, the paramilitary group also had the honors of an official statement accessible to all. On the official website of the Kremlin, one could read the official congratulations of the president to Wagner for the capture of the city. These are the only official mentions.

The name of Yevgeny Prigozhin, his videos violently critical against the elites and especially those of the army, his flowery language... All this remains confined to a single space: that of the Telegram channels of the "turbo-patriots", a nickname in Russia for the galaxy of Russian ultra-nationalists. These Telegram channels can be very followed, sometimes up to several hundred thousand people, but it remains a small audience, if we compare with a Russian population estimated at 143 million people.

A new notoriety

This week, a polling institute considered relatively independent decided to test the voting intentions of Russians for the presidential election scheduled for 2024. This approach was carried out as part of a so-called "open" survey, i.e. it was not asked to choose from a list of candidates, but to name names spontaneously. Yevgeny Prigozhin won 2% of the vote.

For a political analyst analysing this survey, these new 2% of Yevgeny Prigozhin are above all the result of a new notoriety, his talent for communication, but not the sign that he is trusted to represent the country and even less to lead it. Many in Russia believe that there would undoubtedly be a political niche for the founder of Wagner: that of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who died last spring, also a fervent nationalist with flowery language. His best electoral result? 8% in 1991. Then it kept falling and being systematically below 5%.

In any case, how to explain Yevgeny Prigozhin's freedom of tone when in Russia for months the steamroller of repression no longer spares any ordinary citizen, NGO, a known opponent? That for the same words, anyone would end up behind bars?

Experts want to see two explanations. The first is, of course, military. On the ground, Yevgeny Prigozhin brings President Putin what he wants: a victory long awaited for months, that of Bakhmout (Artëmovsk for the Russians who use its Soviet name).

Other paramilitary groups emerge

His group was reportedly solicited last spring, after the start of what the Kremlin still calls a "special operation." But "private companies", as they say in Russia, even if they are still illegal, there are others on the ground. Recently, we began talking about the Convoy, the one mounted by the leader of Crimea Sergei Axionov. It is also extremely discreet, but companies like Gazprom have also reportedly set up groups of fighters.

In addition to the regular forces, other actors have wanted and been able to prove themselves useful to Vladimir Putin since last year. Ramzan Kadyrov obviously comes to mind. Long before the partial mobilization, the strongman of Chechnya staged his best men, those of the elite of his fighters, in the assault on Ukraine. On its territory, a military school also trains Russian volunteers.

A very singular actor, but not unique in the conflict, Yevgeny Prigozhin is in any case not part of the president's inner circle, and would not be one of those, according to many experts, to have direct access to Vladimir Putin.

Its other use, and this is the second explanation for its freedom of speech, would be for the Kremlin to counterbalance the power of the army. In times of conflict, by nature, it becomes more important. And there is no question of her taking too much. It would thus be, basically, a classic method of human management in the Kremlin: to maintain rivalries to better contain ambitions. The other side of the coin is obviously that it can give the feeling that the vertical of power is blunting, that presidential authority is no longer what it used to be. But everyone in Russia knows that Vladimir Putin still has power. And this game of rivalries, he will stop or moderate it when he has decided.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of the faces of the "special operation" abroad, but not in Russia

Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of the faces of the "special operation" abroad, but not in Russia

A new notoriety

Other paramilitary groups emerge

You may like

Trends 24h

Latest