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Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Tallinn

Photo: Michael Kappeler / dpa

The Chancellor delivers right at the beginning. Handwritten. "As convinced members of the European Union," he writes, "as strong allies and good friends, our two countries stand steadfastly and in mutual solidarity close together."

Underneath, flattened O, small l, and a sign like a, well, whale pictogram. This is what it looks like, the signature of Olaf Scholz in the guest book of the Estonian government.

Here, the German varies NATO's promise of assistance. An attack on one ally is an attack on all. This is stipulated in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. Or now in the guest book of the so-called Stenbock House in Tallinn, where Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has her official residence: "Unbreakable" and "in mutual solidarity".

Scholz travelled to the small country in the north of the Baltic States on Friday afternoon to meet the prime ministers of Estonia and Lithuania as well as the prime minister of Latvia. In July, the NATO summit will take place in Vilnius, Lithuania. And Scholz, it seems, wants to take a little precautions. Or rather: practice expectation management.

The three ex-Soviet republics on NATO's eastern flank are worried about their security against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of the ex-Soviet republic of Ukraine.

Scholz prefers to focus on the big picture

That's why, firstly, they want further military aid for Ukraine – where Scholz is completely with them. Secondly, NATO membership for Ukraine in the post-war period – where Scholz is cautious. And thirdly, the stationing of a German brigade, i.e. 3000,5000 to <>,<> soldiers, in Lithuania – where Scholz has somewhat different ideas.

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Federal Chancellor in Vilnius: Scholz pledges Lithuania reinforcements for NATO's eastern flank

The Chancellor prefers to focus on the big picture, on NATO's central promise: assistance in the event of an emergency. After the number with the guestbook, he later said at a joint press conference with the three partners that Germany was ready to defend "every square centimeter of NATO territory" against attacks.

That's exactly what he said – with the square centimeter – some time ago. And Scholz is now actually pointing out that he said exactly that some time ago. Stable.

Well, but the thing about the Bundeswehr brigade in Lithuania? Scholz says that this is in addition to the previous German presence, "shortly" "parts" will be transferred to Lithuania, for exercise. Of course, this is not a permanent stationing. So far, the Bundeswehr has been involved in airspace surveillance, among other things, and Germany heads NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) battle group in Rukla, Lithuania, and is on the ground with almost 800 soldiers.

Lithuania's prime minister wants to build more barracks

Then it's Lithuania's Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė's turn: more "boots on the ground" are needed, i.e. troops in the Baltic States to deter Russia. And – »Thanks to Germany!« – they are currently working on the infrastructure required for this, such as barracks.

Then Scholz again, who uses a journalist's question to clarify, to make his point again: Germany has promised to "create a structure" so that troops can be transferred to Lithuania "very quickly". In other words, there is a combat brigade for Lithuania, but not permanently in Lithuania.

Background: Since autumn 2022, the Bundeswehr has had the Panzergrenadier Brigade 41 "Vorpommern" in Germany ready to defend Lithuania. Germany, Scholz assured, is "consistently aligning the Bundeswehr with the defense of Central and Northeastern Europe."

Ukraine's accession to NATO? Scholz puts the brakes on

With a view to Ukraine's possible accession to NATO, Scholz is putting the brakes on. The summit in Vilnius will "focus on organizing concrete support for Ukraine in this situation." The question "at stake now" is "how we can improve cooperation in the specific situation of the Russian attack on Ukraine and how we can make it clear that we will maintain this support for as long as necessary," Scholz explained.

A completely different security aspect was also a topic on the sidelines of the trip to Estonia: The day before, a motorist had entered the security area of Frankfurt Airport without authorization, where Scholz wanted to board a government plane. The man walked up to Scholz, squeezed his hand and hugged him. In Tallinn, Scholz says he "did not find this situation dramatic". Consequences? "The police are doing a good job, I feel safe in hands."

By the way, the journey from Berlin to Tallinn and back went smoothly, the German and Estonian security forces did their job, looked inscrutable, sometimes two helicopters were still circling in the sky.

Better safe than sorry.