US presidential election: younger, less extravagant... Does Ron DeSantis have a chance of victory over Donald Trump?

Romain Rouillard / Photo credit: STEPHEN MATUREN / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP 17:29 p.m., May 25, 2023

The announcement had been expected for several weeks. The form chosen was, on the other hand, much less so. This Wednesday, Ron DeSantis (44), formalized his candidacy for the Republican nomination for the US presidential election of 2024. But instead of opting for a traditional broadcasting channel, the governor of Florida has chosen... Twitter to end the false suspense. Alongside the boss of the platform, the very controversial Elon Musk, Ron DeSantis pronounced a declaration of candidacy considered bland and without emotion at the end of a long series of technical problems making it impossible to broadcast video. A failed entry while the polls place him quite well behind his rival Donald Trump.

I'm running for president to lead our Great American Comeback. pic.twitter.com/YmkWkLaVDg

— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) May 24, 2023

This gap, ranging from 20 to 30 points according to the said polls, does not encourage optimism for the DeSantis camp. Nevertheless, more than a year before the deadline, it is difficult to lend oneself to the game of predictions. "Let's say it's off to a bad start for him, but election campaigns in the United States are full of twists and turns. Who could have predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump would win?" said François Clemenceau, a journalist at the Journal du Dimanche and a specialist in the United States. However, the timing chosen by Ron DeSantis raises questions. "Last November, he was tied with Trump in the polls. So why did you wait so long? That's the big question," says François Clemenceau.

"More educated" than Donald Trump

But the governor of Florida has more than one trick up his sleeve. And has many assets likely to appeal to an American electorate, unenthusiastic about the possibility of a Trump-Biden remake. "He has a resume. His political career was meteoric. Its success rates in various elections are phenomenal. And this is not a man who comes from the company. He comes from college, the army and local politics," says François Clemenceau. Not to mention the attitude adopted by Ron DeSantis, much less provocative and outrageous than his rival Donald Trump. "He is supremely more educated. He is even more patriotic because he served in the U.S. military," the journalist notes. Finally, his political roots in Florida, one of the three major Republican states in the country, argue for him.

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In the Republican camp, Donald Trump's candidacy is far from unanimous. "It is rejected to the tune of 60%," says François Clemenceau. But thanks to the strength of his voter base, the former tenant of the White House has a rather singular advantage. And if by chance he manages to maintain his No. 1 spot in the polls, Ron DeSantis' chances would be diminished. "Republicans have lost so many elections since 2004 that I think they will vote for whoever can win. There is a logic of victory that surpasses personalities," says François Clemenceau. Clearly, if Donald Trump is given victory against Joe Biden, Republican voters, including the most skeptical, should resolve to slip his name into the ballot box.

"DeSantis doesn't have a base in the country"

Especially since the notoriety of the New York billionaire largely takes over that of his Florida rival. "DeSantis doesn't have a base in the country. He even has difficulty recruiting employees to build a campaign staff. He does not succeed because he is not known enough, "says François Clemenceau. As for the ideological aspect, it is impossible to decide between the two candidates. "There is no difference. Yesterday (Wednesday), he made a declaration of candidacy that could have been Trump's on the merits. Because today, there is a base that corresponds to this segment of the American right. The only ones who can beat the Democrats are these ultra-conservatives," he said. Republican voters are leaving less and less space for more moderate candidates like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio in 2016.

For Ron DeSantis, the road to the White House promises to be steep. It will be even more so if the main interested party puts obstacles in his own wheels, as was the case on Wednesday. "By choosing social media to announce his candidacy, he made, I think, a strategic mistake. By addressing a traditional media, he could have shown that he was able to speak and present a project to the press," said François Clemenceau. For Ron DeSantis, accustomed to local triumphs, the hardest part begins now.