Paris is ready to start discussing future security guarantees for Ukraine. This was stated by the French Foreign Ministry in response to a request to comment on the information disseminated by the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal on this issue.

"France, together with its partners, continues to look for the most effective ways to help Ukraine in the long term and in all areas. France is ready to discuss agreements with Ukraine designed to provide it with security guarantees that will help it ensure its defense in the long term and prevent possible acts of aggression in the future," the website of the French Foreign Ministry says.

Recall that on May 22, The Wall Street Journal, citing Polish President Andrzej Duda and an unnamed representative of the White House administration, reported that Western countries are already discussing the format of guarantees to Ukraine. It is assumed that they will be expressed in providing Kiev with weapons and advanced technologies. This approach was supported by the President of the United States, Joe Biden.

The security model that Western countries are considering for Ukraine will be similar to the Israeli one. As you know, since 2019, a ten-year agreement has been in effect between Washington and Tel Aviv, which, in particular, obliges the United States to provide $38 billion in military assistance to its partner.

As the WSJ explains, the idea to apply the Israeli model to Ukraine arose against the background of the understanding that Ukraine would not soon be able to become a member of NATO. According to Duda, Kiev cannot be accepted into the ranks of the North Atlantic Alliance while hostilities are taking place on Ukrainian territory.

The Israeli model will allow you to maintain support for Kiev in any political changes in the West and at the same time not draw it into a direct confrontation with Russia, writes the WSJ.

As Vladimir Batyuk, head of the Center for Military-Political Studies of the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with RT, the Israeli model will become a convenient format for Washington to support Kyiv, since it does not provide for serious obligations.

"If we turn to the experience of relations between Israel and the United States, then there is no written treaty that would oblige the United States to defend Israel in the event of an armed conflict. At the same time, Washington seriously supports Israel, which is de facto its full-fledged ally. Something similar, most likely, will be formalized in relations with Ukraine, but with an obvious amendment to its vassal position, "Batiuk believes.

Resource mobilization

Recall that in the fall of 2022, Ukraine approved the Kyiv Security Treaty. According to Volodymyr Zelensky's office, it aims to "mobilize the necessary political, financial, military and diplomatic resources for Ukraine's self-defense."

  • President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the G7 summit
  • © Stefan Rousseau/Pool via AP

"These guarantees should protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and make new aggression impossible in the future," Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian president's office, said last year.

According to him, the Kyiv Security Treaty provides for a strategic partnership between Ukraine and the guarantor states. These should include the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey, the Baltic States, Northern and Central Europe.

A special place in the Kyiv Security Treaty is given to large-scale military and economic support for Ukraine. In addition, the guarantor countries must ensure a tough sanctions regime against the Russian Federation. Reaching these agreements does not make Ukraine a neutral state and does not negate its intention to join NATO and the EU.

As Vadim Kozyulin, head of the Center for Global Studies and International Relations of the Institute of International Studies and International Relations of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said in an interview with RT, the West and Kiev can conclude some kind of agreement on multilateral support, but, in essence, it will not mean the provision of security guarantees.

"Today, security guarantees are beautiful, catchy words without real content. It is very premature to talk about them seriously. The West will not rush with this issue. He will wait for the end of the conflict, act depending on its outcome," said Kozyulin.

At the current stage, according to the expert, the task of the West is to "arm Ukraine to the teeth." All key decisions in the near future will be made precisely for these reasons. In this context, the so-called Kiev Security Treaty does not contradict the goals of NATO countries.

"Everything will determine the outcome of events on the front line. The West does not hide at all that it seeks to inflict a military defeat on Russia with the help of Ukraine. This is a strategic course, and we, of course, need to be aware of this," Kozyulin stressed.

The expert recalled the intention of Western countries to supply the Zelensky regime with F-16 multifunctional combat aircraft and train Ukrainian pilots. According to Biden, the transfer of aircraft will not lead to an escalation of the armed conflict due to the alleged guarantees given by Kiev on the non-use of the F-16 "to advance into the geographical territory of Russia."

In turn, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, called the proposal to send fighters "a very good idea" and "a great step." According to him, the European Union itself may soon transfer "this type of weapon" to Ukraine.

In general, the EU demonstrates a strong commitment to continue military support for the Zelensky regime. At the recent G7 summit in Hiroshima, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, spoke out against an equal dialogue between Moscow and Kiev. According to the politician, the West should "contribute to the efforts of President Zelensky to strengthen support for his "peace formula".

  • NATO armored trucks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
  • AP

"Now we need to provide Ukraine with the tools that will allow it to successfully defend itself and fully restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity. We must provide Ukraine with the necessary military and financial support. And we have to do it for as long as it takes," von der Leyen said.

It should be noted that the so-called peace formula, which is supported by the EU, provides for the "restoration of the territorial integrity" of Ukraine, including by military means, and the modernization of the global security architecture. Moscow perceived the "peace formula" as an attempt to achieve Russia's surrender with the help of the West.

"This is nothing more than a set of ultimatums to our country divorced from reality. Among them are the withdrawal of troops from the Russian regions: the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, and even Crimea, the payment of reparations and the surrender to international tribunals," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova commented on Zelensky's "peace formula".

Without the Fifth Article

According to experts interviewed by RT, the West is still not ready to accept Ukraine into NATO, and at the same time take on real guarantees of ensuring its security.

"In fact, the only serious guarantee of security could be the notorious Fifth Article of the Washington Treaty on collective self-defense. The West is not going to make such a decision and for this reason invents various formats that only create the appearance of readiness to bear responsibility for Ukraine," Kozyulin argues.

The topic of Ukraine's membership in the alliance is constantly discussed in the public space at the suggestion of both NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and other Western politicians, as well as representatives of the Kyiv regime. Nevertheless, there is no consensus in the military bloc on this issue.

According to Kozyulin, in reality, the West is ready to offer Kiev only a "surrogate" instead of full membership in NATO. Hence the initiatives on the Israeli model, which excludes direct military assistance and political commitments.

A similar point of view is shared by Volodymyr Batyuk. According to the expert, the West will not accept Kiev as a member of the military bloc, at least this issue will not be seriously discussed in the near future.

"Regarding Kiev's membership in NATO, very encouraging statements are sometimes heard. But the country, no matter how you look at the situation, has very big territorial problems that are unlikely to be resolved peacefully. The countries of the alliance will give money and weapons, but not security guarantees, "says Batiuk.